NFL Week 3 Betting Picks To Fade From Analyst Who Is 3-8 This Season
Here's what I wrote for my picks article last week, and I feel no need to change or update it:
The headline of this story is no joke: I am on the most anemic NFL betting run, possibly of all-time. As hard as it is to win consistently when betting on the NFL, it's also hard to lose at the rate that I am currently losing.
In fact, if you just faded every pick I made, you'd be rich. I stopped giving out picks after Week 11 last year, it was that bad.
I was 12-29 (29%) from NFL Weeks 5-11 last season, which is almost impossible. But I usually do well at the beginning of the season.
Not this year. I gave out my picks for Week 1 and went 1-4.
Well, it didn't get much better in Week 2. I went 2-4.
Week 2 NFL Betting Picks (2-4)
Cleveland Browns +3 at Jacksonville Jaguars ✅
Carolina Panthers +6 vs. Los Angeles Chargers ❌
Los Angeles Rams (+105 ML) at Arizona Cardinals ❌
Chicago Bears (+6.5) at Houston Texans ✅
New York Giants at Washington Commanders OVER 43.5 points ❌
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints UNDER 46.5 points ❌
Last week, I lamented the fact that we had some unfortunate luck in the first week of the NFL season. Despite the poor record, I still felt we were on the right side of most games.
That wasn't as true in Week 2. The Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Rams were both demolished by their opponents, and we weren't even close on those picks.
We also weren't close on the Dallas/New Orleans UNDER since the OVER hit … in the first half. Yeah, it was bad. I'm not going to lie to you.
We weren't even close to hitting the UNDER in the New Orleans Saints blowout win over the Dallas Cowboys since the OVER hit in the first half.
(Kevin Jairaj/Imagn Images)
We were correct about the Browns being undervalued and the Jaguars being overvalued, so we cashed there. Same was true of the Bears covering by a half-point over Houston.
I do think we were more right than wrong when it came to the Giants/Commanders OVER, but Washington kicked SEVEN field goals in the contest. SEVEN.
This should be obvious, but touchdowns are better for OVERS than field goals. So, those hurt.
Week 2 NFL Betting Picks
Lines are the best available from oddschecker.com as of Thursday afternoon.
I'm going to be honest. I pretty much have no idea. I felt good about both Week 1 and Week 2, and we're hitting 27% so far this season. Although, if you faded me, you're winning at an impressive 73% clip.
My goal is to help OutKick readers win money, even if it comes at my own expense (you're welcome), so I guess here we go.
New York Jets (-6) over New England Patriots
I can't find the exact stat, but I know there's a crazy advantage for teams playing on Thursday Night Football against an opponent that has just played an overtime game.
That's the exact situation we have here, where the Patriots just lost in overtime to the Seattle Seahawks, and now they have to go play on the road at the Jets.
Basically, teams that go to overtime on Sunday and then play on Thursday night against a team that didn't have to play OT only cover the spread at something like a 20% rate.
The Jets have a massive advantage because of that, and they're at home. Plus, public perception on the Jets is down right now, since they haven't been overly impressive through two weeks.
I think Aaron Rodgers is going to play his best game of the season on Thursday against the New England Patriots.
(Steve Roberts/Imagn Images)
In contrast, the Patriots upset the Bengals in Week 1 and followed with a tough loss against Seattle.
That is shown in the line for this game, too. New England was a 7.5-point underdog in this game before the season started, and they've dropped below that key number of 7.
There's overreaction for both of these teams after two weeks, but the Jets should cruise to victory at home on Thursday. Or not, since I suck at this.
Indianapolis Colts (-1) over Chicago Bears
I really don't understand this line, which is slightly sliding toward the Bears from the opening number in early September.
The Bears are actually a mess, and we were lucky to cover on Sunday night because the Texans, for some reason, seemed to take their foot off the gas pedal on offense.
Defensively, though, they sacked rookie Caleb Williams seven times. You watch some of the tape of Bears offensive lineman, and you have to wonder what in the hell they're even doing out there.
This is a perfect "get right" spot for Indianapolis, which is not a great team, but they are better than Chicago right now. And giving just one point at home to the Bears is absurd, quite frankly.
Philadelphia Eagles (+3) over New Orleans Saints
I just can't buy that the Saints are suddenly one of the best teams in the NFL. I can't do it. On the preseason look-ahead line, the Eagles were 3-point favorites. Now, they're 3-point underdogs???
That's too big of a swing after two games, even with A.J. Brown likely to miss the game.
The Eagles are clearly underrated after a tough loss in primetime against the Falcons at home, while everyone is gassing up the Saints after a blowout win over the Cowboys.
I could regret this one, big time, but I have to side with the Eagles plus the points.
Carolina Panthers (+5.5) over Las Vegas Raiders
I'm just a glutton for punishment, I guess. I can't quit the Panthers. I don't know what it is.
But they are in the perfect spot this week. They're playing a Raiders team coming off what could end up being its best win of the entire season over Baltimore.
The Panthers are the laughingstock of the NFL and just benched the #1 overall pick from the 2023 NFL Draft, Bryce Young.
I expect the Panthers players to come out fired up and, right now, Andy Dalton is a clear upgrade at quarterback.
Yeah, I'm going back to the Carolina Panthers now that Andy Dalton is starting at quarterback against the Las Vegas Raiders.
(Gregory Fisher/USA TODAY Sports)
If nothing else, this game should be more closely-contested than Carolina's first two weeks, so I'll go to the well one more time and take the points.
But if they screw me over again, I promise to never bet on the Panthers for the rest of my life.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills OVER 45.5 points
This line has plummeted after opening at 49, and that's because the Jaguars have scored 30 points combined through two games.
But I expect that to turn around starting this week because the Bills like to play fast and score points and Jacksonville has no choice except to try and keep up the pace.
Maybe that means Trevor Lawrence tries to force some throws and that means he'll either create some big plays for his own team or for the defense. Either way, that means points.
Buffalo should continue to score, and they have an extended rest coming into this game after playing on Thursday Night Football.
Well, that's all I have for Week 3. I look forward to recapping another 1-4 performance next week, so hopefully you all keep cashing those tickets!