NFL Week 2 Betting Picks To Fade From Analyst Who Can't Pick Anything Right
The headline of this story is no joke: I am on the most anemic NFL betting run possibly in history. As hard as it is to win consistently when betting on the NFL, it's also hard to lose at the rate that I am currently losing.
In fact, if you just faded every pick I made, you'd be rich. I stopped giving out picks after Week 11 last year, it was that bad.
I was 12-29 (29%) from NFL Weeks 5-11 last season, which is almost impossible. But I usually do well at the beginning of the season.
Not this year. I gave out my picks for Week 1 and went 1-4. Here's a quick recap before we get into the fades for Week 2…
Week 1 NFL Betting Picks (1-4)
Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) over Kansas City Chiefs ❌
Tennessee Titans +3.5 over Chicago Bears ❌
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts UNDER 49 points ❌
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers Under 40.5 points ✅
Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) over Detroit Lions ❌
This is going to sound like sour grapes, but if you look at those picks, you'll see just how unlucky I've been and how that continued in Week 1.
The Baltimore Ravens appeared to score a touchdown in the final seconds against the Kansas City Chiefs and head coach John Harbaugh immediately signaled the team to go for a 2-point conversion to win the game. Had that been the case, the bet was already won.
Instead, the very tip of Ravens' tight end Isaiah Likely's toe was on the out-of-bounds line, meaning no touchdown and the Chiefs covered. Brutal.
The Titans should have beaten the Bears, but of course, Chicago's defense and special teams scored a total of two touchdowns to win the game and cover. Our analysis was spot on: Caleb Williams is going to struggle in his NFL debut. He did, and led the offense to virtually no points. Although, it doesn't matter if your defense and special teams score twice.
Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis reacts to an interception that was returned for a Chicago Bears touchdown during the fourth quarter of an NFL Week 1 loss.
(USA Today Network)
Houston and Indianapoli were trending towards an Under the entire game until the Colts blocked a punt deep in Texans' territory. From there, the teams scored 28 points in the fourth quarter to blow what should have been an easy cover.
The Raiders-Chargers matchup pretty much went exactly how we thought it would go and the Under was never in any real danger.
Then, of course, there was that disaster in the Rams-Lions game. We managed to lose a bet with a team getting 3.5 points in overtime. The only outcome we had to avoid was the Lions winning the coin toss, taking the ball and scoring a touchdown. And they did. Sigh. Sometimes it's just not meant to be.
Week 2 NFL Betting Picks
Lines are the best available from oddschecker.com as of Thursday afternoon.
Cleveland Browns +3 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Yeah, I know. Trust me, I know.
But the #1 rule in NFL betting is to fade the obvious public perception. The perception right now is clear: the Cleveland Browns stink. And, full disclosure, I am worried about their long-term viability this season.
That being said, I'm not buying Jacksonville as some elite team and think the Jaguars are a bit overrated coming off a close loss against the Miami Dolphins on the road.
There's just no way that Cleveland's offense – and Deshaun Watson – can possibly look as bad as they did in Week 1. And, let's not forget, the Dallas Cowboys are a damn good football team, especially in the regular season.
Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns were terrible in Week 1, but I expect at least a moderate bounce-back in Week 2 against the Jags.
(Jeff Lange/USA Today Network)
The Browns were just one-point underdogs in this matchup when the lines were first released in the preseason, and moving the line two points toward Jacksonville after one game is an overreaction. I'll happily take a field goal in this one.
Carolina Panthers +6 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Yeah, I know. Trust me, I know!
My picks this week are not for the faint of heart or weak-stomached individuals. We're backing teams that looked like hot garbage roasting in California heat just outside a homeless encampment.
I GET IT.
But hear me out: the Chargers are massively overrated. I don't think this is going to be a good season for them, and they struggled with the Raiders – who figure to be one of the worst teams in the league – even though the score made it seem like they won comfortably.
Don't be fooled – they could have easily lost if Antonio Pierce hadn't made one of the worst head coaching decisions in the past 25 years in the NFL.
Yes, the Carolina Panthers also figure to be one of the league's worst teams. But they shouldn't be as bad as losing by 37 points, which they did in Week 1.
Again, this is a simple case of market overreaction to Week 1 and the Panthers at home plus a touchdown against a mediocre – at best – opponent is worth betting on.
Los Angeles Rams (+105 ML) at Arizona Cardinals
This feels like a sucker line, but I'm going to take the bait. The Los Angeles Rams are one of the more underrated teams in the NFL and I thought their near miss against the Detroit Lions would vault them up the odds board.
But it didn't. In fact, it looks like the Cardinals near miss against the Buffalo Bills is being looked upon much more favorably.
The Rams' biggest weakness right now is their offensive line. They have injuries all over the place and the Lions spent most of the game in Matt Stafford's face. Here's the thing, though: Arizona doesn't have the defenders to take advantage.
The Arizona Cardinals won't be able to get as much pressure on Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford as the Detroit Lions did in Week 1.
(Kimberly P. Mitchell / USA Today Network)
Not one Cardinal player ranked in the Top 50 in pass rush effectiveness (according to Pro Football Focus) in Week 1.
The Puka Nacua injury hurts, but not that much. Stafford has always been great at making any wide receiver competent and the Rams will scheme around a diminished offensive line.
Chicago Bears (+6.5) at Houston Texans
This is the biggest overreaction of the market on the entire slate in Week 2. The Bears were just three-point underdogs when the lines came out in the preseason and have jumped to 6.5 because of a dismal performance by Caleb Williams in the opener.
Plus, Houston beat Indianapolis in an exciting game and C.J. Stroud continues to impress.
However, the Texans actually play at a pretty slow pace and they like to run the ball a lot, particularly early in the season. DeMeco Ryans did that last year and the assumption was he was protecting his then-rookie quarterback. But they continued that trend in Week 1 this year.
Caleb Williams played poorly, but he was a rookie making his first NFL start. That's to be expected, quite frankly. He should be better in his second start.
Houston is one of those teams that the public is in love with and Chicago is a team that the public has already decided stinks. As I always say: you gotta zig when they zag.
New York Giants at Washington Commanders OVER 43.5 points
The Commanders defense stunk last year, and they made a concerted effort to try and improve this off-season. Well, it didn't work in Week 1. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs had their way with Washington, scoring on almost every offensive possession.
But the Commanders' offense was able to move the ball, too, thanks to Jayden Daniels' ridiculous rushing ability. He's like Justin Fields, only a lot better. There are going to be bumps in the road, but he's an exciting player who can create points.
He's also a rookie who can make big mistakes. Big mistakes often turn into easy points for opponents. Those are both good things when we're taking an OVER.
Jayden Daniels is capable of leading the Washington Commanders offense to a lot of points, especially against a New York Giants defense that was just gashed by Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings.
(Nathan Ray Seebeck/Imagn Images)
The New York Giants look like a complete mess – and they are – but the Commanders defense is exactly the thing to make Daniel Jones and the Giants' offense appear mildly competent for one week.
Again, we're fading the perception that the Giants won't be able to score any points because that's what happened in Week 1. But this game is much more about the Commanders than the Giants. Take the over.
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints UNDER 46.5
Often, people don't consider the line movement of totals, but check this out: this game opened at 44.5 and has already jumped two points.
Why? Because the Cowboys and Saints combined for 80 points last week. The Saints basically benefited from several huge plays as they scored almost 50 points in a game where they had less than 200 yards passing.
The Dallas defense is legitimate and made the Browns look like a high school team Sunday. The Saints aren't going to have their way like they did against Carolina.
The Cowboys had a very similar experience: they scored 33 points on 265 yards of total offense with just 163 passing yards. Their total was boosted by a punt return touchdown and the Browns giving them the ball in plus territory THREE times.
Dallas kicked four field goals in the game. How many yards did those four drives total? 42 YARDS.
This is all to say that neither of these offenses was as impressive as their scores indicate, but both defenses played really well. I expected a much lower-scoring affair.
That's all I have for Week 2! Best of luck to everyone and I hope you continue to win all of your NFL bets this season.
I also hope that eventually my luck turns around, but if it doesn't, enjoy the money from fading me.