NFL Week 18 Picks: Circa Million V Football Betting Contest
I need a 5-0 in NFL Week 18 and some help to sneak into the top-100 of the Circa Million V football betting contest. This is my best season betting the NFL. I have nine straight non-losing weeks in the Circa Million with one 2-2-1 effort during that stretch.
Week 17 Recap: (3-2)
My "Geoffrow Records-1" entry is 49-34-2 in the Circa Million V. That equals 50 points, which ties me for 375th-place out of 5,273 entries. So while I'm not going to make money, I've done well enough to talk myself into playing again next season.
The lines from the Circa Million V football betting contest for NFL Week 18. (Courtesy of Circa Sports on X/Twitter)
Circa Million V NFL Week 18 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
Circa Million Pick #1: New York Jets at Patriots (-1.5)
I got the Patriots beating the Jets 17-9. New York QB Trevor Siemian has worse numbers than QB Zach Wilson who's a bottom-three NFL quarterback. Bill Belichick has been torturing Jets QBs for decades now and Siemian will be "seeing ghosts" this Sunday.
(LISTEN to Jets-Patriots analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
Pick #2: Texans (-1.5) at Indianapolis Colts
This is the squarest bet I've made all season however I cannot help myself. Everyone is going to bet the Texans here and I know it. That said, Houston has the better quarterback, defense and statistical profile.
Also, it makes more sense for Texans QB C.J. Stroud to be in the playoffs than Colts backup QB Gardner Minshew II. But, I have lost Houston games by a half-point this season. If I won those games, I'd be in the money right now. So I wouldn't put it past the Texans to win and not cover -1.5.
(LISTEN to Texans-Colts analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
Pick #3: Bears (+3) at Green Bay Packers
Chicago is 5-3 straight up (SU) and 6-2-1 against the spread (ATS) since Week 9. That's when pass rusher Montez Sweat joined the team and the Bears' defense turned into a top-five unit in football.
Lastly, Green Bay's defense cannot stop the run and Chicago is one of the best rushing teams in the NFL. For example, the Packers are 26th in yards per rush allowed and the Bears are second in rushing yards per game.
(LISTEN to Bears-Packers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
Pick #4: Cleveland Browns at Bengals (-7)
The Browns are giving up 29.4 points per game on the road this season. That's with their first stringers. Since Cleveland is locked into the 5-seed for the AFC playoffs, it has nothing to play for in Week 18. It would be a sin for Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski to play the starters Sunday.
With that in mind, this is a "stat padding" game for the Bengals. Ja'Marr Chase has 96 catches and I'm sure he'd like to finish with 100+ receptions. Cincy RB Joe Mixon is 77 yards away from a 1,000 on the season. Bengals pass rusher Trey Hendrickson is tied with Pittsburgh Steelers' T.J. Watt in sacks (17).
Bengals QB Jake Browning throws the ball on the run in overtime vs. the Minnesota Vikings at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
Cincinnati backup QB Jake Browning has played good games since replacing Joe Burrow. Browning has thrown for 300+ yards three times in his six starts this year vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings, and the Steelers. All of whom had something to play for that week.
(LISTEN to Browns-Bengals analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
Pick #5: Cardinals (+2.5) at Seattle Seahawks
My biggest fear is the Cardinals have a "let down game" after upsetting the Philadelphia Eagles last week. I'm just hoping Arizona doesn't let down since it's a home game and Kyler Murray wants to end the season on a high note.
The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 20-10 at home in Week 7. Seattle covered as -9 favorites but didn't deserve to cover. I remember because I bet the Seahawks and watched that entire game. They turned the ball over three times and tried to give the game away.
Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray hands it off to RB James Conner vs. the Steelers at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Mark Alberti/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Arizona didn't have Kyler or RB James Conner in Seattle that week. Conner is one of the best running backs in the NFL and Murray's elusiveness is world-class. Plus, the Cardinals are second in yards per rush and the Seahawks are 30th in opponent's rushing yards per game.
Finally, the Seahawks are terrible in high-leverage situations and I want to fade them as road favorites. Seattle is 31st in third-down conversion differential and 28th in net red-zone scoring rate. If you cannot sustain drives and punch in scores, I'm not betting you as a road favorite.
(LISTEN to Cardinals-Seahawks analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).