NFL Week 17 Picks: Circa Million V Football Betting Contest
It's the penultimate week of the NFL regular season and nut-crunching time in the Circa Million V football betting contest. I'm hot at the right time of the year with eight consecutive non-losing weeks (seven winning weeks and one 2-2-1).
Week 16 Recap: (5-0)
Entering Week 17, my "Geoffrow Records-1" entry in the Circa Million V is 46-32-2, which is good for 47 points and puts me in a tie for 511th-place. I have some work to do since the top-100 places cash in this contest.
For the seventh time this season, I submitted my Week 17 picks before the Saturday deadline with the Thursday Night Football game on the card. And for the seventh team this season, I won the TNF game when the Cleveland Browns beat the New York Jets 37-20.
Circa Million V NFL Week 17 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
Circa Million Pick #1: Lions (+5) at Dallas Cowboys
Since I've already broken this game down in detail, I'll give you a TLDR-version. Dallas's defense cannot stop the run so the whole playbook will be open for Lions QB Jared Goff. They can land body blows on the ground and knockout punches with WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and TE Sam LaPorta.
Detroit's elite offensive line can protect Goff against Cowboys pass rushers DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons. Finally, I give Detroit the edge in coaching and at quarterback, meaning the Lions +5, down to +3.5 is a good bet.
(LISTEN to Lions-Cowboys analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
Pick #2: New York Jets at Browns (-7.5)
Browns QB Joe Flacco is breathing life into my "Cleveland to win Super Bowl 2024" bet. They are 4-1 with Flacco under center and getting hot at the right time. If Cleveland's defense gets healthier before the playoffs, the Browns are going to be a tough out.
Either way, I'm going to miss the TNF game. I went 7-0 in Kirk Herbstreit and Al Michaels games this season and Cleveland put me at 1-0 heading into the weekend.
(LISTEN to Jets-Browns analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
Pick #3: Falcons (+3) at Chicago Bears
The Bears were a trendy preseason pick to make the playoffs that everyone turned on after they struggled to start the season. Chicago is 3-2 straight up (SU) and 4-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last five weeks since QB Justin Fields returned. So bettors are backing the Bears again.
Don’t downplay Atlanta’s 29-10 Week 16 home win over the Indianapolis Colts. The Falcons whooped a Colts team that had a lot to play for. Indy is in a 3-way tie atop the AFC South and the current 7-seed in the postseason standings.
Since Chicago closed as -4.5 favorites vs. the Arizona Cardinals last week, Atlanta +3 is a great price. There is no way the Cardinals are only 1.5 points worse than the Falcons. Arizona’s 3-12 record is the second-worst in the NFL.
Both teams have played cupcake schedules. Yet, Atlanta ranks higher than Chicago in all of my key performance indicators. These include EPA/play differential, yards per play differential, net pressure rate, net thirrd-down conversion rate, and net red-zone scoring rate.
Furthermore, Falcons QB Taylor Heinicke is a massive upgrade from QB Desmond Ridder. Neither are franchise QBs but Heinicke is “Tyrod Taylor bad” and Ridder is “Zach Wilson bad”.
You can win games with Tyrod Taylor (Heinicke) and you cannot with Zach Wilson (Ridder). Heinicke won the NFC East with the Washington Commanders in 2020 and started a playoff game against Tom Brady. He can cover +3 vs. the 6-9 Bears.
(LISTEN to Falcons-Bears analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
Pick #4: Cardinals (+10.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
First things first, I’m fading the Eagles more than betting on the Cardinals. Philadelphia has been favored -7 or more in just three games this season. Twice against the Washington Commanders and last week at home vs. the New York Giants.
The Eagles are 0-2-1 ATS in those games. Believe it or not, the market ranks the Cardinals higher than the Commanders and Giants, per Inpredictable.com. Arizona actually has a legit starting QB and those other two teams don’t.
Philadelphia beat the Cardinals 20-17 in Arizona last season in Week 5. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray out-played Eagles QB Jalen Hurts last year. Murray had more total yards (passing + rushing), a higher EPA/play and a better completion percentage over expectation.
Cardinals QB Kyler Murray scrambles away from the Philadelphia Eagles at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. (Norm Hall/Getty Images)
Kyler needs a run game because his WR corp is terrible. Luckily for him, Philly’s defense is 27th in rushing EPA/play. Murray is one of the most elusive runners in the NFL and Arizona RB James Conner is seventh among running backs in yards per carry.
Plus, the Eagles lost their top-five tacklers from last year’s squad. Kyler gained 42 rushing yards on 4 carries vs. Philadelphia last season. That could easily turn into 60+ yards and a TD this week.
Finally, the Eagles are 30th in defensive 3rd-down conversion rate and 29th in red-zone scoring rate. I don’t know about you but I don’t want to lay -10.5 with a team who get opponents off the field and sucks in the red zone.
(LISTEN to Cardinals-Eagles analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
Pick #5: Panthers (+6.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
This is an example of why people wait until the deadline before submitting their football betting contest picks. The Jaguars announced QB Trevor Lawrence would miss his first game ever Friday.
Now that backup QB C.J. Beathard is Jacksonville's starter Sunday, the Jaguars are -4 favorites across the board. I baked Lawrence's possible absence into my analysis and submitted the Panthers +6.5 along with my other Week 17 picks Thursday.
Carolina rookie QB Bryce Young has momentum to build on. Young played his best game as a pro last week against the Green Bay Packers. Granted, the Panthers lost 33-30 at home but they covered as +4 underdogs.
Panthers QB Bryce Young throws past Green Bay Packers LB Quay Walker at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports)
Young threw for a career-best 312 yards for two touchdowns and zero interceptions with a 111.0 QB Rating. He rallied Carolina back from a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit to tie the game with 4:05 left.
Jacksonville’s pass defense isn’t exactly a tough test. The Jaguars are 25th in opponent’s QB Rating and tied for 27th in sacks. If Young is really starting to figure things out, he can make some throws vs. Jacksonville’s secondary.
According to TeamRankings.com, the Panthers have the worst luck in the NFL and the Jaguars are 9th in the luck rankings. Judging by Lawrence's absence, Carolina's fortune is turning to the good and vice versa for Jacksonville.
(LISTEN to Panthers-Jaguars analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).