NFL Week 16 Picks: Circa Million V Football Betting Contest
I went from "five straight winning weeks" in the Circa Million V football betting contest to "six consecutive non-losing weeks" in NFL Week 16. However, I was only two points away from a 4-1 effort and I'd classify the Minnesota Vikings (+3) tie as bad luck.
Week 15 Recap: (2-2-1)
Entering Week 16, my Circa Million V record is 41-32-2, equaling 42 points with ties being worth 0.5-point, which ties me for 1,116th-place. But, I subbed early this week with the Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) over the New Orleans Saints on Thursday Night Football.
The lines from the Circa Million V football betting contest for NFL Week 16. (Courtesy of Circa Sports on X/Twitter)
Circa Million V NFL Week 16 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
Circa Million Pick #1: New Orleans Saints at Rams (-3.5)
If you're in one of these season-long NFL betting contests, there's no better feeling than hitting the Thursday game and starting the weekend 1-0. I've already written and discussed this game on the OutKick Bets Podcast. So you were given ample notice about this bet.
(LISTEN to Saints-Rams analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
Pick #2: Dallas Cowboys at Dolphins (pick 'em)
This is another Circa Million V pick I've already broken down in length. The TLDR-version of the analysis below is the Dolphins have the better passing attack, coaching staff, and defense. In other words, Miami is better than Dallas. And we only need the Dolphins to win outright.
(LISTEN to Cowboys-Dolphins analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
Pick #3: Green Bay Packers at Panthers (+4.5)
This is the only the 2nd game the Packers have been a road favorite. Their 1st was a 24-22 loss at the NY Giants with Tommy Cutlets under center on Monday Night Football in Week 14. So Green Bay underperformed the only time it was in this spot.
Also, the Packers have a ton of important injuries. Green Bay WR Christian Watson is "doubtful" for this game. WR Jayden Reed hasn't practiced all week and is "questionable" to play. Packers CB Jaire Alexander could miss his 7th consecutive game.
Per Pregame.com, more than 80% of the action is on Green Bay but Carolina has gone from +5.5 on the opener to +4.5 in the Circa Million V contest. The Packers are still dining off their three straight wins from Weeks 11-13 over the LA Chargers, Detroit Lions, and KC Chiefs.
Carolina Panthers QB Bryce Young reacts after a 1st down run vs. the Atlanta Falcons at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)
Furthermore, the Panthers are priced as if they are the worst team in the NFL. But, I'd argue that the Giants, Chargers (in their current form), and the Washington Commanders are worse. In fact, their defense is healthy and underrated.
The market ranks the Carolina's defense 25th, per Inpredictable.com, and Aaron Schatz as it ranked 27th in DVOA, which is Schatz's proprietary NFL stat. However, the Panthers are 8th in yards per play allowed and 7th in defensive 3rd-down conversion rate.
Lastly, I'm one of the few NFL fans that hasn't sold all of his "Panthers rookie QB Bryce Young stock". Young might need a more offensive guy for Carolina's next head coaching hire but I still think this kid can still be a "franchise QB".
(LISTEN to Packers-Panthers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
Pick #4: Arizona Cardinals at Bears (-4)
No one is running to bet the Bears at these odds. It feels like sportsbooks are begging for pro-Cardinals money here. Yet, Chicago's defense has become a top-10 unit since acquiring pass rusher Montez Sweat at the trade deadline.
Since Sweat's first game as a Bear in Week 9, Chicago's defense is 3rd in expected points added (EPA) per play. Inpredictable.com reports the market ranks the Bears' defense 22nd and that doesn't match the raw data. They've given up more than 17 points just once since Week 9.
Chicago Bears pass rusher Montez Sweat celebrates after sacking Browns QB Joe Flacco in NFL Week 15 at Cleveland Browns Stadium in Ohio. (Jason Miller/Getty Images)
Chicago has two good run-stopping linebackers in Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards who are used to practicing against a more mobile QB than Kyler Murray. Plus, Murray is playing worse than former Cardinals QB Josh Dobbs.
Arizona has the 2nd-worst defense in the NFL behind Washington, according to my numbers. That said, I think Bears QB Justin Fields and WR D.J. Moore can find success vs. the Cardinals because almost everyone has this year.
(LISTEN to Cardinals-Bears analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
Pick #5: Indianapolis Colts at Falcons (-1)
Atlanta has been one of the unluckiest teams in the NFL and the opposite is true for Indy. According to TeamRankings.com, the Colts are 4th in luck rankings and have a +4 turnover margin. The Falcons on the other hand are 23rd in luck rankings with a -6 turnover margin.
Moreover, Atlanta is better in high-leverage situations (3rd down and red zone) and has a higher early-down success rate differential. "Early-down success rate" is a predictive stat since the whole playbook is available. When you remove turnovers, the Falcons have a better net EPA/play than the Colts.
Falcons QB Taylor Heinicke celebrates a big-play during an NFL Week 9 meeting with the Minnesota Vikings at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. (Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)
Atlanta wouldn't have made my NFL Week 16 card if it didn't switch quarterbacks. The Falcons are starting QB Taylor Heinicke over QB Desmond Ridder Sunday. They have more than enough weapons for Heinicke to use and an above-average offensive line.
More importantly, Heinicke has a better QB Rating, TD-rate, and INT-rate than Ridder this year. Atlanta's highest scoring output was 28 against a good Minnesota Vikings defense with Heinicke starting in Week 9.
(LISTEN to Colts-Falcons analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).