NFL Week 15 Picks: Circa Million V Football Betting Contest
The 2023 NFL regular season is hitting its final stretch. All 32 teams play in Week 15 and there are three Saturday games. Last week was my 5th consecutive winning week in the Circa Million V football betting contest.
Week 14 Recap: (3-2)
My record is 39-30-1 (39.5 points), which puts me in a tie for 1,005th-place. That doesn't sound good yet there are 5,273 entries in this crapshoot. While I'm not mathematically eliminated from making the money, I'll need to end this season with a 75% win rate to sneak into the top-100.
The lines from the Circa Million V football betting contest for NFL Week 15. (Courtesy of Circa Sports on X/Twitter)
Circa Million V NFL Week 15 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
Circa Million Pick #1: Vikings (+3) at Cincinnati Bengals
"Minnesota plus the points" is my favorite bet of Week 15 and one of my favorite bets this season. In my 2023 preview of the Vikings, I predicted their defense would gel and become a top-10 unit under 1st-year defensive coordinator Brian Flores.
Well, that prediction has come to fruition. Entering Week 15, Minnesota's defense is tied for 5th in yards per play allowed and 7th in red zone scoring rate. If Bengals backup QB Jake Browning is legit then I lose. But, I bet Flores exposes him Saturday.
(LISTEN to Vikings-Bengals analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #2: Dallas Cowboys at Bills (-2)
If the Bills won a couple of their coin-flip losses, they would be at least -3 favorites here. Dallas has the better win-loss record but I believe Buffalo is the better team. Rather than spilling more ink on this matchup, I encourage you to check out my handicap below.
(LISTEN to Cowboys-Bills analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #3: Chicago Bears at Browns (-3.5)
Last week, the Bears closed as +3 home underdogs vs. the Lions and Cleveland is a better team than Detroit. Chicago's 28-13 win over the Lions last week is less impressive considering Detroit has been struggling lately.
The Browns signing QB Joe Flacco off the couch improves their team. Flacco has a good tight end (David Njoku) and wideouts (Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore) to throw to. His offensive line is banged up but it's still an above-average unit.
Browns QB Joe Flacco signals to his teammates vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns Stadium in Ohio. (Jason Miller/Getty Images)
More importantly, Cleveland's defense is dominant, especially at home. The Browns allow only 3.5 yards per play at home and 12.6 points per game. They've played Lamar Jackson twice this season and are familiar with mobile quarterbacks.
The Bears are easy to defend as long as you have the personnel, which Cleveland does. Browns All-Pro Myles Garrett can shut down rushing plays in his direction. And Bears QB Justin Fields doesn't have many options outside of WR D.J. Moore.
Finally, Chicago is a public 'dog and it's rare for sportsbooks to "need" the favorite since the public loves betting favorites. According to Pro Football Focus, nearly 90% of the money is on the Bears to cover as of Friday night.
(LISTEN to Bears-Browns analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #4: Baltimore Ravens at Jaguars (+3)
Ravens-Jaguars was featured in my Weekend Betting Guide for December 15-17. There's more to it than this but everyone is going to bet Baltimore Sunday night and Jacksonville will have a bounce-back effort.
Lastly, given all the options, the Jaguars +3 at home seems appropriate. Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence is a top-10 NFL quarterback. Jaguars TE Evan Engram and RB Travis Etienne are ballers. Jacksonville head coach Doug Pederson has a Super Bowl ring.
(LISTEN to Ravens-Jaguars analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #5: Washington Commanders at Rams (-6.5)
Situationally, this spot sucks for the Rams. They played a grueling overtime game at the Baltimore Ravens then flew across country and host the New Orleans Saints this Thursday. Washington on the other hand had a bye in Week 14.
However, I'd argue a bye week doesn't help the Commanders here. Their season is pretty much over. Washington head coach Ron Rivera is most likely gone at the end of this season. How hard are the Commanders prepping for this game on their bye?
Also, the Rams need this game like blood. They are on the outside looking into the NFC playoff picture. LAR has the same record as the current 7-seed Green Bay Packers (6-7) along with three other NFC teams.
Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford hands it off to RB Kyren Williams vs. the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. (Todd Olszewski/Getty Images)
Furthermore, the Rams' offense is clicking and they've scored 36 or 37 points in three straight games. A key to their success is the breakout season by Rams RB Kyren Williams who balances their attack.
Plus, Matt Stafford should be able to throw all over this terrible Washington defense. It's hard to do better than WRs Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. The Commanders allow the most passing yards per game and have the worst opponent's QB Rating in the NFL.
Finally, Washington QB Sam Howell's 58 sacks is 14 more than the 2nd-most sacked quarterback in the NFL, Carolina Panthers rookie QB Bryce Young. I could see Aaron Donald ripping Howell's face off Sunday.
(LISTEN to Commanders-Rams analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).