NFL Week 15 Betting Picks Include Chiefs & Steelers Covering On The Road
After back-to-back losing weeks (1-4 in Week 12, 2-3 in Week 13), I decided to take a short respite and not post picks for Week 14 in the NFL.
Sometimes, when you're running a little cold, it's good to take a week and evaluate your process and reset. But, shooters shoot. So, we're back with a full slate of bets for Week 15.
Hopefully, we can get back on the streak that saw us go 18-7 over a five-week stretch prior to the losing weeks.
Week 13 NFL Betting Picks (2-3)
New York Jets (+2.5) over Seattle Seahawks ❌
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) over Pittsburgh Steelers ❌
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings UNDER 45 ❌
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers OVER 46.5 ✅
Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens UNDER 51 points ✅
Normally, I'd recap the picks from the previous week here, but it was two weeks ago, so no one cares. We're on to Cincinnati (not literally, just felt appropriate to quote Bill Belichick here).
SEASON REPORT CARD (31-29, 52%)
SPREAD BETS (19-19, 50%)
OVER/UNDER BETS (12-10, 55%)
*You can track all my betting picks for the season here
Week 15 NFL Betting Picks
Lines are the best available from oddschecker.com as of Thursday afternoon.
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 40.5
Mac Jones has started three games for the Jaguars this season. Here are the team's points scored in those games: 7, 6, and 10. So, yeah, Jones isn't exactly lighting up the scoreboard when he's under center.
The Jets have been allowing a lot of points in recent weeks, but the Jaguars' offense is a great cure for what ails ya. I expect them to play much better against Jones, a player they know really well from his time in New England.
On the other side, the Jets have basically given up on this season, as they should. They're eliminated from playoff contention, which means it's time to start making business decisions, especially for veterans like Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams.
Both these teams want to get this game over as quickly as possible without suffering any injuries. That should mean a lot of running the football, keeping the clock moving, and counting down the seconds until this game mercifully ends. Take the UNDER.
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans UNDER 46.5
The Cincinnati Bengals' defense is atrocious, that's no secret. But they've quietly been OK against bad offenses. I don't think I need to provide much evidence that the Titans' offense is bad.
Expect the Bengals defense to play better against a struggling Titans' offense led by Will Levis.
(Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
Here are the points allowed by the Bengals against similar offenses: 16 to the Patriots, 7 to the Giants, 14 to the Browns, and 20 to the Cowboys. That's an average of 14 points per game. This total is baking in the Bengals porous secondary, but Will Levis and the struggling Titans receivers aren't in position to take advantage.
This is a game where Cincinnati is going to try to get out to a lead and then bleed down the clock. I think they can keep the Titans in that 14-point range, and then it becomes about keeping Cincinnati under 30 points.
The Titans can do it, mostly because their head coach, Brian Callahan, is the former Bengals offensive coordinator. Not that he's going to be able to completely stop Joe Burrow and company, but he should at least have a plan in place to keep the explosive plays to a minimum.
That's enough to back the UNDER.
Kansas City Chiefs (-4) over Cleveland Browns
This is more of a gut feeling than anything backed by the numbers. The Chiefs are 12-1 but haven't covered a single spread since October (0-7 in that span). That's not ideal for a team that's trying to position itself to win a Super Bowl.
Look for Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs to assert their dominance over the Cleveland Browns in Week 15.
(Jay Biggerstaff/Imagn Images)
And I know bookmakers are trying to entice action on Kansas City with this line, given that the Chiefs are only 4-point favorites against a team that has 9 fewer wins. But the thing is that the Browns are terrible against-the-spread in their own right.
Cleveland is 4-9 ATS this season, including 1-4 in their past five. They find ways to lose and lose big most weeks. While Kansas City has a comfortable lead for the #1 seed in the AFC, that's far from a given, especially considering their upcoming schedule.
This isn't a "must-win" game, obviously, but it is one the Chiefs are motivated to win. They want to have a nice cushion going into their final three games, all of which are against teams with winning records.
Kansas City is hearing the noise that they aren't that good, at least not as good as their record, and it's time for Patrick Mahomes and company to make a statement. I like KC to blow out the Browns in Cleveland on Sunday.
New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals OVER 46 points
Both of these teams have bad defenses, but it's really stark when it comes to Arizona. The Cardinals' offense is actually pretty solid, ranking near the top 10 in the NFL in EPA/play. But their defense is in the bottom 10.
Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye has gotten better every week, which is to be expected from a young quarterback. Taking aim at a weak Cardinals defense in a stadium with no weather concerns should be an opportunity for him to lead the offense to some points.
There's not a ton more to say about this game than that. The OVER is the play.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+5.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
There's a pretty simple principle at play here: when Mike Tomlin is an underdog, you bet on him. Pittsburgh has won seven-straight games outright as an underdog, including five this season. They are in play on the moneyline, but take the points.
The Eagles are good, there's no question about it. But this season, they are 5-5 against-the-spread as favorites. That number gets worse when you only look at the games when they were home favorites.
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in that situation this year and 2-6 in their past eight games as home favorites.
Seven of the team's 11 wins this season have come by one score, so they play a lot of close games. Meanwhile, the Steelers have three losses this season by a combined 11 points and haven't lost any game by more than 5 points.
Add it all up and the Steelers +5.5 is the smart play on Sunday in the Pennsylvania showdown.