NFL Week 14 Picks: 2023 Circa Million V Football Contest
I'm entering the final five weeks of the 2023 Circa Million V NFL handicapping contest on a heater. Week 13 was my fourth consecutive winning week in the contest and my best performance of the year.
Week 13 Recap: (5-0)
After sweeping the NFL Week 13 card, my Circa Million V record improved to 36-28-1 and I'm tied for 1,088th-place out of 5,723 entries. This is the final quarter of the season and I need to hit 70 to 75 percent of my picks to finish in the money.
Circa Million V NFL Week 14 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
Circa Million Pick #1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-2)
I'm shocked money is coming in on the Bucs. I argued about it with OutKick NFL dude Dan Zaksheske on my podcast this week. He's taking Tampa Bay too. But, I feel like I'm a Buccaneers Whisperer because I've won money betting several of their games this season.
The Falcons out-played the Buccaneers in a 16-13 win in Tampa earlier this year. The Bucs were projected 6.5 games preseason, Atlanta's regular-season win total was 8.5, and both teams are matching expectations. Maybe I'm crazy but it feels like the Falcons -2 is an early Christmas gift.
(LISTEN to Buccaneers-Falcons analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #2: Los Angeles Rams (+7.5) at Baltimore Ravens
I've already given a detailed handicap for this game in my Weekend Betting Guide. Basically, I'll happily take the Rams coach Sean McVay and quarterback Matthew Stafford plus 7.5 points over Baltimore coach John Harbaugh and quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford warming up before an NFL football game vs. the Cleveland Browns at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. (Michael Owens/Getty Images)
Finally, I'm happy to fade the public here. Pregame.com is reporting that more than 80 percent of the money is on the Ravens in the consensus sports betting market. Simply put, eight out of 10 sports bettors don't win in this racket.
(LISTEN to Rams-Ravens analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #3: Buffalo Bills (+1.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
This is another game I broke down in the Weekend Betting Guide for December 9-10 and the OutKick Bets Podcast. The TLDR-version is the Bills have a better statistical profile than the Chiefs and Buffalo should win as long as it doesn't turn the ball over.
Also, Kansas City is only -1 favorites as of Saturday due to cluster injuries on defense. The Bills are coming off of a bye and their offense is fully healthy. Plus, Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen tears the Chiefs up.
(LISTEN to Bills-Chiefs analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #4: Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)
Please check out my podcast or read my handicap below. Essentially, I think Denver is frauds and Los Angeles will expose it Sunday. The Chargers can hold the Broncos to 17 or fewer points and Justin Herbert will figure out a way to put up 20+ vs. Denver. Or at least that's the plan.
(LISTEN to Broncos-Chargers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark
Pick #5: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (+3)
We're getting the worst of the number because Chicago opened as +5 underdogs. So that sucks. But, the Bears are still the right side. They should've beaten the Lions in a 31-26 loss on the road in Week 11.
More importantly, Chicago matches up well with Detroit. The Bears play a lot of Cover-2 defense and Lions quarterback Jared Goff struggles vs. Cover-2. Chicago's defense intercepted Goff three times in Week 11 and Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson dropped a would-be pick-six.
Lions quarterback Jared Goff is sacked by Chicago Bears defensive end Montez Sweat at Ford Field in Detroit. (Kirthmon F. Dozier/USA TODAY NETWORK)
It's December in Chicago and Goff is known to struggle in winter weather conditions. Furthermore, Goff will be missing his center, Frank Ragnow. NFL professional bettors know that center is the 2nd-most important position on offense.
Lastly, Chicago had a bye in Week 13 and had extra time to prepare for this must-win game. Bears quarterback Justin Fields and coach Matt Eberflus are playing for their jobs. Fields has scored at least 24 points in three of his four career games vs. the Lions.
(LISTEN to Lions-Bears analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark