NFL Week 14 Monday Night Football Doubleheader Best Bets
For whatever reason there are two Monday Night Football games in NFL Week 14. And both kick off at the same time (8:15 p.m. ET). The Miami Dolphins (9-3) host the Tennessee Titans (4-8) and the Green Bay Packers (6-6) visit the New York Giants (4-8).
Miami is in the hunt for the 1-seed and home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. Tennessee is getting a look at rookie QB Will Levis in what's looking like a lost season for the Titans. Speaking of "lost season", Big Blue aren't going anywhere this year. While the Packers would be the NFC's 7-seed if the postseason started today.
NFL Week 14 Monday Night Football Best Bets
Tennessee Titans QB Will Levis UNDER 210.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Since Dolphins CB Jalen Ramsey made his 2023 debut in Week 8, only one quarterback has thrown for more than 200 yards vs. Miami. That guy was Las Vegas Raiders rookie QB Aidan O'Connell in Week 11.
Granted, three of the other QBs the Dolphins faced over that 5-game span sucked: New England Patriots QB Mac Jones in Week 8, New York Jets 3rd-string QB Tim Boyle two weeks ago, and Washington Commanders QB Sam Howell last week.
However, the 4th QB in that mix is Patrick Mahomes whom Miami held to just 185 passing yards in Dolphins-Chiefs in Germany. Even if Kansas City's pass attack is down this year, holding Mahomes to fewer than 200 yards passing in impressive.
Dolphins CB Jalen Ramsey intercepts a pass vs. the Raiders in NFL Week 11 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. (Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
Miami's defense was always going to improve as the season progressed under 1st-year defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. He is a defensive whiz. A lot of NFL defenses use Fangio's two-high safety scheme to prevent chunk plays.
Levis has the worst completion rate (57.8%) among 30 qualifying NFL QBs and Pro Football Focus grades Levis 31st out of 38 they've charted in 2023. He's thrown for 200+ yards in three of his six games this season.
Lastly, Pinnacle Sportsbook set the Under for Levis's 210.5-yard passing prop at -140. But, most of the legal U.S. sportsbooks have both the Over and Under at -115. Pinnacle is a sharp sportsbook, which other oddsmakers copy so I'm expecting Levis's Under to get pricier.
BET Tennessee Titans QB Will Levis UNDER 210.5 passing yards (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook
New York Giants (+6) over Green Bay Packers
Last week, Green Bay was +6 when hosting Kansas City for Sunday Night Football. In Week 14, the Packers are -6 favorites in the Meadowlands for Monday Night Football. Typically, you want to fade teams going from home 'dogs to road favorites in the NFL.
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Furthermore, prior to Green Bay's current 3-game winning streak, talking heads were calling Packers 1st-year starting QB Jordan Love a backup. Now, Love is being compared to former Green Bay QB greats Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers.
Packers QB Jordan Love attempts a pass against the Kansas City Chiefs at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
Plus, the Packers opened as -6 favorites, the market has been backing them all week and they haven't budged off the opener. Most bettors will put Green Bay's moneyline in parlays or tease the Packers down to a pick 'em. Meaning, I'm expecting sportsbooks to need the Giants outright Monday.
Finally, Green Bay is without No. 1 WR Christian Watson and 1st-string RB Aaron Jones and New York's defense isn't complete garbage. The Giants held the Seattle Seahawks to 17 offensive points in Week 4 and the Buffalo Bills to 14 points in Week 6.