NFL Week 13 Betting Picks From Analyst Who Is 19-11 Over Past Six Weeks

After five-straight winning weeks, I ran into a roadblock last week with a 1-4 slate. To be fair to me, I made the picks while sitting on an airplane traveling back from Denver where I was covering the Mountain West lawsuit. 

Even still, we had a bit of bad luck. I feel good about the Week 13 slate and think I'm due for a quick bounce-back. 

Week 12 NFL Betting Picks (1-4)

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders UNDER 45.5 ❌

Indianapolis Colts (+7.5) over Detroit Lions ❌

Arizona Cardinals (ML -105) over Seattle Seahawks ❌

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams OVER 48.5 ✅

Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers UNDER 51 ❌

The Cowboys-Commanders UNDER was the worst beat I've taken this year. The score was 13-9 with 5:20 left in the game. Then, out of nowhere, the points just wouldn't stop. Dallas outscored Washington 21-17 over the final five-plus minutes. Gross. 

I admit a mistake picking the Colts and the Cardinals simply laid an egg. We hit the OVER on Sunday Night Football before taking another bad beat when the Chargers scored a meaningless touchdown in the final minute to crush our UNDER play. 

SEASON REPORT CARD (29-26, 53%)

SPREAD BETS (19-17, 53%) 

OVER/UNDER BETS (10-9, 53%) 

*You can track all my betting picks for the season here

Week 13 NFL Betting Picks

Lines are the best available from oddschecker.com as of Thursday afternoon.

Analysis will be a little shorter this week since I'm out in Las Vegas covering the Mountain West Conference Volleyball tournament… 

New York Jets (+2.5) over Seattle Seahawks 

Quite simply, the New York Jets have to win this game. The season has already gotten out of hand, and they're probably not going to make the playoffs. But Aaaron Rodgers is a proud guy and, call me crazy, but I think he's going to light it up on Sunday. 

The Seahawks are coming off a big win over the Cardinals, but I still don't believe in them. In fact, based on analytics, the Jets and Seahawks are virtually the same team, statistically-speaking. 

That said, I'll take the points with the home underdog Jets. 

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) over Pittsburgh Steelers 

We're going back to the well with Cincinnati because their record doesn't reflect their performance. The Bengals have played much better than their 4-7 record indicates. Conversely, the Steelers have a better record (8-3) than their performance would dictate. 

Yet, bookmakers know the Bengals are the better team, which is why Cincinnati is favored despite Pittsburgh being four games ahead of the Bengals in the AFC North. They're trying to entice people to take the underdog Steelers on the road. 

I like the Bengals to win and cover on Sunday in a big AFC North showdown against the Steelers. 

(Kirby Lee/Imagn Images)

But that's a mistake. Cincinnati is better and much more desperate. Although they face an uphill battle to make the playoffs, after this game the Bengals play the Cowboys, Titans and Browns. A win on Sunday, and they have to think they can easily get to 8-7 and make a push down the stretch. I like Cincinnati to do it in convincing fashion. 

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings UNDER 45 

While the resurgence of San Darnold has grabbed the headlines in Minnesota, it's really the Vikings defense that has been the star of the show for the 9-2 team. 

In fact, the Vikings' defense has been one of the best units in the entire NFL this season. They're coming off a shootout against the Bears, but that was aided by a fourth-quarter letdown where Minnesota allowed 17 points in the final frame, including 10 points in the last 22 seconds. 

That's inflating this total a bit, as Minnesota allowed 11 points per game over three games going into the Chicago matchup. While I've been a defender of the Cardinals, their offense really struggled last week against Seattle. 

Arizona has struggled to score against good teams, and Minnesota is a good team. The Vikings are going to run the ball, keep the clock moving, and try to win a low-scoring affair. Take the UNDER. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers OVER 46.5 

Bryce Young is playing arguably the best football of his career and is coming off one of his best performances, albeit in a loss, against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Panthers are playing like a team with nothing to lose, which has led to an offensive resurgence. 

Plus, the Bucs LOVE getting into shootouts. In 8 of their 11 games, at least one team has scored 30+ points. They had a stretch of five-straight games where the total points were over 50, with three of those games going over 60 and two going over 70. 

Yes, they've played in lower-scoring games the past two weeks, but both the 49ers and Giants came in with struggling offenses. That's not true of the Panthers, who have scored 20+ points in three straight games for the first time in Young's career. 

Expect Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers offense to keep rolling and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers shouldn't struggle to score points against Carolina's defense, either. 

(Scott Kinser/Imagn Images)

In fact, in Young's first 21 career starts, the Panthers scored 20+ points three times total. I like that to keep rolling in an NFC South shootout. 

Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens UNDER 51 points 

This total is just too high. While both teams have terrific offenses, both are based on running the football. The Eagles do it with Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts and the Ravens do it with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson. 

Both defenses are going to do what they can to avoid the big play, which is something the Eagles are quite adept at doing. They've allowed fewer than 20 points to five of their last six opponents. 

Generally, in big games like this, especially between two teams with prolific offenses, the public jumps all over the OVER. That's exactly why we're going to go the other direction. 

Happy Thanksgiving and good luck to all in Week 13!