NFL Week 1 Gambling Dossier: Survivor, Parlays, Props, Teasers
There is a saying in sports betting that goes: "The NFL is king". Outside of soccer, which hardly counts as a sport, NFL is the most popular sport to gamble on. I've been betting on the NFL weekly for almost 20 years. It's literally my favorite thing to do.
Not only do I have two entries in the Circa Million V football handicapping contest I got action across the NFL in various other markets. These include 6-point "teasers," long-shot parlays, player props and survivor pools.
NFL Week 1 Gambling Dossier
The Week 1 schedule via the NFL on X, formerly known as Twitter.
'Teaser Time': 3-Teamer (+160)
DraftKings Sportsbook offers 6-point NFL "teasers," which is a great way to bet the NFL. This is when you parlay at least two teams but add six points to each line in the teaser. A 3-team teaser at DraftKings goes for +160.
Our plan of attack is to tease three home underdogs up past the key number of +7.5. The Pittsburgh Steelers (up to +8.5) and Cleveland Browns (up to +8) Sunday afternoon and the New York Jets (up to 8.5) on Monday Night Football.
Pittsburgh hosts essentially a rookie QB — San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy — playing in his 1st start after surgery on his throwing arm. I'm expecting Purdy to regress in 2023 after lighting it up last year and ...
Listen, the guy is probably a huge scumbag. But, I'm buying stock in Browns QB Deshaun Watson as a QUARTERBACK. I'm holding a +3800 ticket on the Browns to win this year's Super Bowl.
Cleveland is +2 underdogs when hosting the Cincinnati Bengals Sunday. Week 1 home underdogs in division games are 15-2 against the spread (ATS) and 16-1 on 6-point teasers (94.1%).
This obviously applies to the Buffalo Bills vs. Jets game Monday. NYJ is getting +2.5 at MetLife in Aaron Rodgers 1st game as a Jet. I'm sky-high on the Jets in 2023 and think the Rodgers thing works out in year one.
TEASE: Steelers +8.5, Browns +8, and Jets +8.5 in NFL Week 1
'Hail Mary' Moneyline Parlay: Buccaneers & Rams (+741)
Leg #1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings
Aside from QB and WR, the Bucs are better than the Vikings at every position. Sure, Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield sucks. But, at least he's willing to air it out down the field to Bucs WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield huddles up with his offense vs. the Baltimore Ravens in NFL preseason at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida. (Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports)
Plus, Tampa's defense has Pro Bowl talent on all three levels while Minnesota's defense was trash last year. Everyone knows the Vikings got dumb-lucky in 2022 and are due for some close losses this year. One of those losses will be to the Buccaneers Sunday.
Leg #2: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
No one is touching the Rams with a 10-foot pole. Especially since they will be without WR Cooper Kupp Sunday. LA's Week 1 opponent, Seattle Seahawks, is getting too much love. People thought the Seahawks would "tank" last year and now they are a contender in the NFC West.
I'm fading both of those narratives. The Rams have the better QB-head coach combo. Rams coach Sean McVay has a career winning record in Seattle and I'm predicting Rams QB Matt Stafford has a bounce-back season in 2023.
NFL Week 1 Props
Saints RB Jamaal Williams UNDER 53.5 rushing yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook
The Tennessee Titans head to New Orleans for Week 1. Tennessee had one of the best rush defenses in the NFL last season, both teams play at a snail's pace, and FanDuel has great odds for this prop.
At Pinnacle Sportsbook, Williams' rushing prop is 49.5 with more juice on the Under. Pinnacle is the sharpest shop in town and known for booking the largest sports bets in the world. And four yards is a big difference.
Texans QB C.J. Stroud OVER 194.5 passing yards (-115) at DraftKings
Houston takes on the Baltimore Ravens Sunday in Stroud's NFL debut. Usually, Baltimore's defense is one of the best in the NFL. This season, I have the Ravens taking a step back defensively. They lack a good pass rush and are thing at secondary.
Texans WR Nico Collins celebrates with QB C.J. Stroud after a TD in an NFL preseason game vs. the Saints at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. (Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)
I'm higher on Stroud and this Texans team than the market. Houston has three young WRs that could all pop if Stroud is the goods. Also, PointsBet set Stroud's passing prop at 200.5 and FanDuel has it at 197.5. We are getting a great number at DraftKings.
'Survivor' Pick of NFL Week 1: Washington Commanders > Arizona Cardinals
This is the only time that we can use the Commanders. They are projected to finish last in the NFC East yet Washington is -310 favorites vs. the Cardinals. If the Commanders don't win, I'm okay with being done with my "Survivor Pool" in Week 1.
Furthermore, is Arizona even trying to win? Cardinals QB Joshua Dobbs is making his 3rd career start Sunday. Arizona has a bad offensive line and Washington's defensive line is one of the best in the NFL.