NFL Week 1 Circa Million VI Picks From A Bettor Who Went 59% Last Season
Like undisputed WWE Champion Cody Rhodes, I'm back in the Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest to "finish the story". Though I'm not locked into a title match at Wrestlemania, I still feel like it's my destiny to win the Circa Million. In 2023, I tied for 326th place out of 5,273 players, which is the top 94%.
Unfortunately for me, only the top 100 entrants in the Circa Million get paid. That said, I lost three Houston Texans games by a half-point each. If those games went my way, I would've profited $6,000+ in the Circa Million V. As ridiculous as it sounds, I think I can do some damage this year if I get a few more bounces and just stick to my process.
Without further ado, let's get into my Circa Million VI NFL Week 1 card.
Circa Million VI NFL Week 1 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
- Indianapolis Colts +2.5
- New York Giants +1
- Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5
- Los Angeles Rams +3.5
Circa Million Pick #1: Houston Texans at Colts (+2.5)
Indy is my "best bet" for NFL Week 1, partially because Houston is the most popular team among the betting public. My other reason for loving the Colts Sunday is their strength-on-weakness edge over the Texans on the ground. In their two meetings last season, Indianapolis ran for nearly 6.0 yards per carry and Houston was at 2.0 yards per rush.
Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson runs for a TD vs. the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium in Texas. (Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports)
(LISTEN to Texans-Colts analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #2: Minnesota Vikings at Giants (+1)
As I wrote earlier this week, the Vikings -1 is the "sucker line" of NFL Week 1. Essentially, if you're betting on Minnesota QB Sam Darnold as a road favorite, your NFL betting process is wrong. The Giants have the better quarterback (Daniel Jones) and head coach (Brian Daboll) and are the home team.
(LISTEN to Vikings-Giants analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #3: Jaguars (+3.5) at Miami Dolphins
I said it in my 2024 preview for the Jaguars, and I’ll say it again: The market is too low on Jacksonville’s defense. New Jaguars defensive coordinator, Ryan Nielsen, who will have the Jaguars will play a lot more aggressively on defense, which will help against a finesse team like the Dolphins.
Furthermore, Jacksonville’s defensive line has a massive edge over Miami’s offensive line. Jaguars pass rusher Josh Hines-Allen is a game-wrecker, who was second in the NFL in sacks (17.5) last year and a legit NFL Defensive Player of the Year candidate.
Jacksonville Jaguars pass rusher Josh Hines-Allen celebrates a sack against the Carolina Panthers at EverBank Stadium in Florida. (Morgan Tencza-USA TODAY Sports)
At the other end of Jacksonville’s defensive line is third-year pass rusher Travon Walker. After a disappointing rookie season as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, Walker bounced back last season with 10.0 sacks. His underlying metrics still need to improve, but Walker isn’t a "complete bust".
The Dolphins lost RG Robert Hunt in free agency this offseason, hurting Miami’s already weak interior offensive line. The Jaguars signed DT Arik Armstead in free agency, who graded out as a top-20 interior defensive lineman by Pro Football Focus in five of his nine years with the San Francisco 49ers.
Lastly, I'm expecting a bounce-back season from Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence and Miami's defense to regress year over year after former defensive coordinator Vic Fangio went to the Philadelphia Eagles. Lawrence dealt with injuries and bad receiver play last season, but I'm not selling my stock on him.
(LISTEN to Jaguars-Dolphins analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #4: Washington Commanders at Buccaneers (-3.5)
Originally, I had the Cleveland Browns -2 over the Dallas Cowboys as my final pick in NFL Week 1. In fact, I gave that play out on my OutKick Bets Podcast. After all, the Browns are my pick to win Super Bowl 2025, I have the Cowboys missing the playoffs, and I get Cleveland under a field goal.
However, that "-2" line that the contest is hanging feels like a "trap line". Plus, enough people are down on Dallas that I could see Cleveland being a popular pick in the contest. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, will not be a popular pick. Many NFL betting "analysts" like the Commanders as a "sharp" play.
There is a trend being cited for the Titans-Bears game about quarterbacks drafted first overall being 0-14-1 vs. the spread in Week 1. But, that trend applies more to Washington than Chicago. The Commanders had a worse record and the Bears got the No. 1 pick in a trade with the Carolina Panthers for the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels throws a pass vs. the Dolphins during an NFL preseason game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. (Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports)
With that in mind, Washington’s roster is god-awful. The Commanders have a bottom-five secondary in the NFL and WR Terry McLaurin is their only good skill-position player. Also, I’m not a believer in rookie QB, and second overall pick, Jayden Daniels, especially in Week 1.
Before his 2023 Heisman campaign, Daniels wasn’t mocked as a first-round quarterback. Daniels had two first-round receivers, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas, and one of the best offensive lines in the country. Playing behind Washington’s bad offensive line without a lot of weapons will be tough for Daniels.
Finally, Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles is an elite defensive mind and Tampa’s defense has All-Pro talent on all three levels, including DT Vita Vea, LB Lavonte David, and S Antoine Winfield Jr. The Buccaneers will shut down Daniels and win by margin.
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Pick #5: Rams (+3.5) at Detroit Lions
I almost ditched my Rams pick once they placed starting CB Darious Williams on IR Thursday and their spread went to +4.5. But, I decided to keep LA as a selection since its defense wasn't the reason for liking the Rams in Week 1. Instead, I like Los Angeles here because it has the NFC's best quarterback (Matt Stafford) and head coach (Sean McVay).
(LISTEN to Rams-Lions analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NFL 2024-25 betting record via X all season.