NFL Week 1 Betting Picks: Fade Public Perception, Back Unders & Underdogs
If you followed my picks for any length of time, you know I have one main rule when it comes to making NFL betting picks: fade what you saw most recently.
Well, in Week 1, that's kinda tough to do since we have no information.
But what we can look to do is fade public perception. The public loves betting the over and the public loves betting favorites.
Week 1 is one of the most popular weeks for casual NFL bettors to make picks, which means there is value to be had as sportsbooks adjust lines to entice casuals to spend their hard-earned money.
Fading the perceptions of NFL fans and casual bettors is the best way to make money in Week 1.
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So, without further ado, here's what I'm looking at in Week 1 of the NFL season from a betting perspective…
*Note: all lines are as of Thursday afternoon using the best available number via oddschecker.com.
Baltimore Ravens +2.5 over Kansas City Chiefs
Full disclosure, I bet the Ravens personally as soon as they hit +3, which is no longer available. Of course it isn't, because the Ravens at +3 was too juicy to pass up.
Still, I think Baltimore will beat Kansas City on opening night, so I'm willing to take the 2.5 points and I have already bet on the moneyline, as well.
John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson are incredible in Week 1, having failed to cover only one time. Jackson is 12-1 ATS in his career as an underdog in any game.
Plus, we're simply fading public perception here. The Chiefs are the reigning Super Bowl Champions and the class of the NFL.
Everyone knows that, so that's why we zig when they zag. And this game means a lot more to Baltimore, despite them trying to downplay the "revenge" angle.
Tennessee Titans +3.5 over Chicago Bears
Pretty simple logic here: fade a rookie quarterback making his first career start, especially when his team is installed as a favorite.
I don't really need to write anything else, but I will for the sake of content.
I do think Caleb Williams will have a decent rookie season and the Bears will win som games. But asking him to win in his debut and cover more than a field goal seems like a tall order.
Betting against a rookie quarterback as a Week 1 favorite in his NFL debut is usually a smart strategy.
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Yes, Tennessee doesn't have that many weapons and, yes, Will Levis is the starting quarterback.
But that's exactly why you should be backing the Titans in this matchup. The public is going to hammer the Bears. Zigging and zagging, baby.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts Under 49 points
The public loves overs and this game is ripe for a public over. CJ Stroud! Anthony Richardson! Fireworks all over the field!
Nah, don't buy into it. Divisional games are always played tighter, and I expect both teams to have a bit of a feeling out process.
Indianapolis definitely wants to run the ball and that should keep the clock moving. Plus, I think Houston's defense is going to take a monster step forward this season.
Let the other suckers bet on the shootout while we sit back and collect our cash on a 23-17 final score. I'll let you pick which team wins.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers Under 40.5 points
I'm having a really hard time figuring out how these teams are going to score points.
New Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman LOVE to run the football. Like, they have an unhealthy obsession with running the ball in non-typical running situations.
The Raiders are going to be obsessed with running the ball because the fewer passes that starting quarterback Gardner Minshew has to throw, the better.
Take the under in a game where Gardner Minshew is starting at quarterback for the Las Vegas Raiders.
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The Chargers were extremely aggressive last season under Brandon Staley, and still struggled to score points.
They lost all of their top playmakers (Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler) and it's going to take Justin Herbert time to adjust to his new teammates.
It wouldn't shock me to see this game end something like 17-13.
Los Angeles Rams +3.5 over Detroit Lions
This is my favorite bet in Week 1. The Lions are the new "it" team and the public is going to rush to bet them.
Don't be one of them. The Rams were sneaky good last season and they didn't get any worse.
If anything, a year of experience for Puka Nacua and Matt Stafford plus a healthy Cooper Kupp makes this offense even more dangerous.
Sean McVay has been spectacular in Week 1 against-the-spread (6-1) and I think the extra time to prepare definitely favors McVay over the less tactical but more entertaining Dan Campbell.
Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams are typically very good at covering the spread in Week 1 and I see them doing it again over the public darling Detroit Lions.
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I think Detroit is going to be good this year, but they're getting way too much hype. Los Angeles might actually be the better team here, and we're getting more than a field goal.
That's all I have for Week 1! Best of luck to everyone out there and I hope you win all of your NFL bets this season.
Unless, of course, you bet against me and, in that case, I hope you get smoked.