NFL Thanksgiving, Black Friday 2023 Betting Preview
Talking about Thanksgiving brings a tear to my eye. Food and NFL football are my two favorite things in the world. On one hand, the NFL broadcasts took a hit when the late John Madden retired. On the other, we have three Thanksgiving games nowadays and a first-ever Black Friday game in 2023.
Furthermore, the NFL Thanksgiving festivities improved once the Supreme Court legalized sports betting. At least for me they have. I've replaced my standard post-Thanksgiving dinner nap with cooking up some last-minute ...
NFL Thanksgiving and Black Friday 2023 Best Bets
6-Point Thanksgiving 'Teaser': Lions -1.5 & 49ers -1 (-120)
While I think both favorites will win and cover Thursday, I feel much better about "teasing" them down. For those who don't know, a "teaser" is when you add points to at least two spreads and both have to hit to cash.
Six-point teasers are the most popular and can be bankroll builders. There's a reason teasers have become pricier over the years and some oddsmakers don't even book them anymore. But, DraftKings Sportsbook offers 2-team, 6-point teasers for -120 odds.
OutKick Bets Podcast: NFL Week 12, Thanksgiving 2023 Gambling Guide featuring Dan Zaksheske & Scott Martin
That's best odds any legal U.S. sportsbook has as far as I know. Instead of fussing with the points and betting a more expensive moneyline parlay, let's 6-POINT TEASE the DETROIT LIONS (-1.5) and SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-1) down.
Detroit hosts the NFC North rival Green Bay Packers for the 1st of NFL's Thanksgiving Day triple-header. The Lions mauled the Packers 34-20 in their first meeting this season in Week 4. Detroit gained 10 more 1st-downs (25-15) and outgained Green Bay 401-230 in total yards.
Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff stands under center vs. the Packers at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
Granted, the Packers are playing better football recently. However, so are the Lions. They've won seven of the past eight games while covering five of those games. Plus, since 2021 (Detroit coach Dan Campbell's first year on the job), the Lions are 10-3 as favorites on 6-point teasers.
San Francisco won and covered all three meetings vs. Seattle in 2022 including a 41-23 stomping in the NFC Wild Card round. Also, the Niners are the No. 1 team in the sports betting market, according to Inpredictable.com.
Finally, I like the idea of fading a Seahawks team that's bad in high-leverage situations. Seattle has the second-worst 3rd-down conversion differential and ranks 28th in net red-zone scoring.
BET: 6-point teaser with the Detroit Lions (-1.5) and San Francisco 49ers (-1) down
Bet slip for the Lions-49ers 6-point teaser from DraftKings Sportsbook for 2023 NFL Thanksgiving.
Washington Commanders (+12.5) at Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving
First of all, this is one of the biggest "buy-low" spots of the season. The Commanders just lost as -7.5 home favorites vs. the New York Giants and rookie QB Tommy DeVito in Week 11.
Point blank, Washington's loss to NYG is one of the most embarrassing in 2023. NFL teams usually respond to getting embarrassed in their previous games.
Moreover, the Commanders aren't that bad. They are 10th in both net early-down success rate and red-zone scoring differential, which is better than the Cowboys.
Also, Washington has good playmakers in WRs Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Jahan Dotson and RB Brian Robinson. The Commanders are 5-1-1 against the spread (ATS) as underdogs this year as well.
Washington Commanders QB Sam Howell runs for a TD vs. the Dallas Cowboys at FedExField in Landover, Maryland. (Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images)
Washington upset Dallas 26-6 in Week 18 last season in Commanders QB Sam Howell's NFL debut. This game counts because the Cowboys still had a chance to win the NFC East so they played all their starters.
This is Washington's "last stand" too. The Commanders can sneak into the playoffs. The last two NFC wild card teams entering Week 12 are the Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings. Seattle's schedule is brutal over the next four games and Vikings QB Kirk Cousins is out for the year.
Lastly, the Cowboys are 1-2 straight up and 0-3 ATS in Thanksgiving games since hiring coach Mike McCarthy three years ago. Washington beat Dallas 41-16 on Thanksgiving 2020.
BET Washington Commanders +12.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets on Black Friday
This feels like the squarest wager ever but I'm betting NEW YORK JETS UNDER 15.5 POINTS (-115). Miami's defense is looking better under first-year defensive coordinator Vic Fangio now that CB Jalen Ramsey is back.
Ramsey made an impact upon returning in Week 8. He has three interceptions in three games and shuts down an entire side of the field. Since Ramsey returned, the Dolphins are third in defensive efficiency.
Dolphins CB Jalen Ramsey intercepts a pass by Las Vegas Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. (Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports)
More importantly, the Jets are benching QB Zach Wilson for third-string QB Tim Boyle. A lot of people said this move should've happened sooner. But, those people are going to find out Friday how much worse Boyle is than Wilson.
Boyle is 0-3 as a starter with a career 50.9 QB Rating and a 3/9 TD/INT rate. The Jets are averaging just 15.0 points per game and have 13 or fewer points in six of their games this season including four straight.