NFL Thanksgiving 2024 Best Bets: Bears-Lions, Giants-Cowboys, Dolphins-Packers

So, the middle game between the New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving 2024 sucks. But, the opening act (Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions) and the main event (Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers) should be awesome. Either way, gambling on the NFL is as important of a Thanksgiving tradition as turkey and stuffing. That said, here are the NFL wagers I'm using to pay for my Thanksgiving spread this year. 

NFL Thanksgiving 2024 Best Bets

• Chicago Bears +9.5 (-108) at Detroit Lions via FanDuel
• 6-Point, 4-Team ‘Teaser’ (+260) via DraftKings: New York Giants +9, Pittsburgh Steelers +9, New England Patriots +8.5, and Buffalo Bills -1
• Miami Dolphins +3.5 (-115) at Green Bay Packers via BetMGM

Bears (+9.5) at Lions 

Last year, the 8-2 Lions were -8 favorites in their 31-26 win vs. the 3-8 Bears in Week 11. Detroit was 7-3 against the spread (ATS) and Chicago was 4-6-1 ATS then. This season, the Bears are 7-4 ATS, and the Lions are 9-2 ATS. I mention this to say Detroit is a little overrated and Chicago is a little underrated. 

Sure, the Lions are the 2025 Super Bowl betting favorite and the hottest team in the NFL while the Bears have lost five straight games, three in heart-breaking fashion. However, if you ignore the narratives, Chicago is much better than last year’s team and Detroit is only a little better. 

Chicago rookie QB Caleb Williams has been ballin’ since former offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was fired before Week 11. Williams had an 83.9 QBR and completed 74.3% of his passes in a 20-19 loss to the Packers two weeks ago. He had a 77.4 QBR, 340 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions in a 30-27 overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings last week. 

A couple of throws Williams completed vs. Minnesota were some of the best he’s made all year. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is one of the best defensive minds in the NFL. Williams dicing up a Flores defense is all that more impressive. While Lions QB Jared Goff struggled against Chicago’s defense in 2023. 

Goff had a 61.4 QB Rating, 2 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions in his two starts vs. the Bears last season. Finally, there is a reverse line movement towards Chicago in the betting market. The Bears have gone from +10.5 to +9.5 even though nearly 90% of the action is on Detroit at the time of writing, according to Pregame.com. 

Prediction: Detroit 28, Chicago 24 

• Chicago +9.5 is one of my favorite picks from NFL Week 13. I entered my Circa Million VI betting card for Week 13 Wednesday with the Bears on it. For what it's worth, I'm 12-1 on Thursday Night Football games in the Circa Million since last season.

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Giants at Cowboys 

As a biased NYG fan, I should recuse myself from this game. But, since it's Thanksgiving and I want action on this game, I'm using the Giants in a four-team, six-point teaser with the Steelers +9 vs. the Cincinnati Bengals, Patriots +8.5 vs. the Indianapolis Colts, and the Bills -1 vs. San Francisco 49ers at +260 odds. 

DraftKings books six-point "teaser" bets, which is when you add six points to a line, but there must be at least two teams in the teaser. I don't think Dallas backup QB Cooper Rush should be a -3 favorite over anyone. But, I know he shouldn't be a -9 favorite. The Cowboys are overrated for this game after upsetting the Washington Commanders last week. 

I cannot get NYG's 24-22 upset win over the Packers on Sunday Night Football in Week 14 last year out of my head. Giants backup QB Tommy DeVito played the best game of his career and New York out-gained Green Bay 6.7-4.9 in yards per play. If the Giants can do that against the Packers, they can do it vs. Dallas Thanksgiving. 

The New York Giants over the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving 2024 will be the first leg in my four-team, six-point teaser in NFL Week 13. (Julian Leshay Guadalupe/NorthJersey.com-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

Pittsburgh is my second leg because I have a rule where I always bet the underdog in AFC North games. Cincy's four wins were against the Carolina Panthers, Giants, Cleveland Browns, and Las Vegas Raiders. Those could be the first four teams picking in the 2025 NFL Draft. Plus, the Steelers' pass rush has a massive edge over Cincinnati's offensive line. 

LISTEN: OutKick Bets Podcast's NFL Week 13, Thanksgiving 2024 Betting Preview Ft. Geoff Fienberg

I love fading road favorites the week after they were home underdogs. Last week, the Colts were +7 vs. the Lions. Indianapolis is -2.5 in New England this week. If you do a 4-point flip for a home-field edge, Indy would be -6.5 vs. the Patriots at home. Miami closed as a -7 over New England in Week 12, and the Dolphins are way better than the Colts. 

Lastly, this could be a lost season for the Niners. One of the universal laws of the NFL is the team that loses the Super Bowl regresses the following year, and the 49ers aren't above that. Buffalo is a truck right now, winning six straight games, and San Francisco could be without pass rusher Nick Bosa, All-Pro LT Trent Williams, and QB Brock Purdy for Sunday Night Football. 

6-Point, 4-Team ‘Teaser’ (+260): Giants +9, Steelers +9, Patriots +8.5, Bills -1 

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Dolphins (+3.5) at Packers

Given how poorly the Dolphins play vs. quality competition and in primetime under third-year head coach Mike McDaniel and a Miami team playing in a winter game, "Green Bay -3/-3.5" feels like a trap line. Yet, Pro Football Focus gives the Dolphins an edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball, so the winter conditions won't be a deal-breaker on Thanksgiving. 

More importantly, Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa has been lighting teams up since returning from a concussion in Week 8. Tua has a 76.5% completion rate with 11 touchdowns and one interception over that span. Miami's offense is second in offensive success rate and fifth in EPA during that stretch, according to RBSDM.com. 

The Miami Dolphins over the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving in NFL Week 13 is one of my five picks in the Circa Million VI contest. (Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images)

Furthermore, the Dolphins are better on third down and in the red zone on both sides of the ball, and Miami has a higher first-down differential than Green Bay (+17 to +16) despite Tagovailoa missing four games and Packers QB Jordan Love missing just two. 

Ultimately, Green Bay's defense has been thriving on takeaways and the Packers' turnover luck will run out eventually. Green Bay has a +8 turnover differential even though Love has thrown the second-most interceptions in the NFL (11). 

Prediction: Miami 23, Green Bay 21 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NFL 2024-25 betting record via X all season.