NFL Mid-Week 3 Odds Report: Injuries Lead To Big Line Movement In Several Games

NFL line moves become more important as the season progresses. Analyzing how much injuries, weather, travel, and rest scenarios matter to the matchup is tough. Odds shifting is the market's ("wisdom of crowds") way of quantifying these situational factors. 

For example, if you see an injury to a productive wide receiver or running back, but the spread doesn't move, that injury must not be that important. Let's examine the movement for every NFL Week 3 contest and if there is any betting value to gain. 

NFL Week 3 Line Movement

The ‘summer look-ahead lines’ are from the Lines.com. 'Week 3 openers' are from DraftKings after Sunday Night Football in Week 2. The ‘current odds’ are courtesy of Pregame.com as of 3:30 p.m. ET Thursday, September 19.  

New England Patriots at New York Jets 

• Summer look-ahead line: Jets -7.5, 42
• Week 3 opener: Jets -6.5, 39
• Current odds: Jets -6, 38.5

For what it's worth, this game has good two-way action, according to Pregame.com and Pro Football Focus. Nevertheless, the line is moving toward New England, implying there is "respected money" on the Patriots. The 3.5-point drop in the total aligns with the scoring dip seen across the NFL in the first two weeks. 

Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers 

• Summer look-ahead line: Steelers -2, 42.5
• Week 3 opener: Steelers -2.5, 38
• Current odds: Steelers -1, 36

Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert drops back to pass vs. the Carolina Panthers in an NFL Week 2 game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. (Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images)

Everyone and their grandmothers, myself included, are betting the Chargers, according to Pregame.com. That's why the line has gone from Steelers -2.5 down to -1. Chargers QB Justin Herbert got rolled up in LA's win over the Carolina Panthers last week. But, based on the line movement, the market assumes Herbert will play in Week 2. 

Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts

• Summer look-ahead line: Colts -2, 47
• Week 3 opener: Colts -1, 45.5
• Current odds: Colts -1, 43.5

The market isn't keen on either team. Hence, there has been no mid-week line movement. Chicago got a phony cover as +6.5 underdogs in a 19-13 loss at the Houston Texans in Week 2. Indianapolis lost outright vs. the Green Bay Packers with backup QB Malik Willis starting in place of an injured Jordan Love. 

Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings

• Summer look-ahead line: Texans -3.5, 46.5
• Week 3 opener: Texans -3, 46.5
• Current odds: Texans -2, 46

Pregame.com says most of the betting action is on the Vikings after their upset victory at home against the San Francisco 49ers Sunday. Minnesota QB Sam Darnold looks like a legit franchise quarterback, finally. Plus, the 2-0 Texans have failed to cover the spread by a half-point in both wins. I've already gone on the record with my bet on Houston and Minnesota being the "fake sharp bet of Week 3". 

New York Giants at Cleveland Browns

• Summer look-ahead line: Browns -6.5, 42.5
• Week 3 opener: Browns -7, 39
• Current odds: Browns -6.5, 38.5

Favorites of -6 or more have failed to cover the spread through the first two weeks of the season. That combined with the Browns looking like sh*t in Week 1 against the Dallas Cowboys plus getting a lucky cover vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars this week equals Cleveland's spread lowering to -6.5 at the time of writing. 

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints 

• Summer look-ahead line: Eagles -3, 45
• Week 3 opener: Eagles -2.5, 48.5
• Current odds: Saints -2.5, 49.5

Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts runs past Atlanta Falcons pass rusher Matthew Judon at Lincoln Financial Field. (Eric Hartline-Imagn Images)

The Saints look like a powerhouse entering Week 3. They crushed the Carolina Panthers 47-10 in their season opener and blasted the Cowboys 44-19 last week. Also, Philly choked in its 22-21 loss to the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football in Week 2. However, the 5-point line swing means you're "buying high" on New Orleans this week. 

Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Summer look-ahead line: Buccaneers -3.5, 43
• Week 3 opener: Buccaneers -7, 40.5
• Current odds: Buccaneers -6.5, 41

Several websites are reporting the Bucs are seeing an overwhelming majority of the betting action in this matchup. That makes sense after Tampa Bay's upset victory over the Lions last week and Denver scoring just 26 points in its first two games. Otherwise, the sportsbooks are confident in their Week 3 opener and willing to accept the pro-Buccaneers action.  

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans

• Summer look-ahead line: Packers -3.5, 44
• Week 3 opener: Titans -1.5, 38
• Current odds: Titans -2, 38.5

Love's Week 1 injury explains the massive swing in odds from the summer look-ahead line to the current number. As I wrote Wednesday, Tennessee still being favored despite Love practicing tells me he won't be ready by Sunday. 

Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders

• Summer look-ahead line: Raiders -4, 43
• Week 3 opener: Raiders -7, 38.5
• Current odds: Raiders -5, 40

The market upgraded Carolina by two points after it announced backup QB Andy Dalton would be replacing QB Bryce Young in Week 3. Even though I know the Panthers are the play here, I cannot bring myself to pull the trigger. 

Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks

• Summer look-ahead line: Dolphins -2, 49
• Week 3 opener: Seahawks -6.5, 42
• Current odds: Seahawks -4.5, 41

Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa going on IR with a concussion flipped Seattle from a home underdog to the favorite. However, "respected ‘sharp money’" in the market earlier this week on the Dolphins has pushed the Seahawks' spread down. Pregame.com reports that more than 60% of the bets and money are on Seattle at the time of writing. 

Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa lays on the ground concussed after being tackled by Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin  at Hard Rock Stadium. (Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images)

Yet, the line is moving toward Miami. Make that of it what you will. I'm leaning towards using the Dolphins as my fifth and final pick for the Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest in Week 3. Between Miami's extended rest and the Seahawks' unimpressive first two games, Seattle is laying too many points in this spot. 

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

• Summer look-ahead line: Lions -4, 50
• Week 3 opener: Lions -3.5, 51.5
• Current odds: Lions -2.5, 51.5

Detroit's number dipped below the "key number" of -3 after the Lions lost at home to the Bucs and Arizona boat-raced the Los Angeles Rams 41-10 Sunday. At this point, the Cardinals are a better "teaser" leg than an outright bet since they are turning into a "public underdog". 

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys

• Summer look-ahead line: Cowboys -1, 48
• Week 3 opener: Cowboys -1, 48
• Current odds: Ravens -1, 48

Candidly, I don't have much analysis for this line movement aside from the obvious: Baltimore is now the favorite over Dallas because the Ravens are getting most of the bets, presumably.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams 

• Summer look-ahead line: 49ers -2.5, 49
• Week 3 opener: 49ers -7, 46.5
• Current odds: 49ers -7, 44

San Francisco has moved up to a touchdown-favorite because LA is the most banged-up team in the NFL. The Rams are missing WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua and have cluster injuries along their offensive line. The Niners have injury concerns as well, but are still the second-highest power-rated team in the market, according to Inpredictable.com. 

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons

• Summer look-ahead line: Chiefs -3, 49
• Week 3 opener: Chiefs -4.5, 46.5
• Current odds: Chiefs -3.5, 46.5

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes throws a pass against the Cincinnati Bengals at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. (Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images)

The Chiefs could've, should've lost both games and Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco is out for the foreseeable future with a fractured fibula. On top of that, Atlanta pulled off a road upset on Monday Night Football in Week 2, so the market upgraded the Falcons. 

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills 

• Summer look-ahead line: Bills -4.5, 48
• Week 3 opener: Bills -5, 47
• Current odds: Bills -5, 45.5

This is another spot where I know the sharp bet is the underdog, but I cannot get to the window with the Jaguars. Last season, Jacksonville beat Buffalo 25-20 in London. The Jaguars converted 11 more first downs (29-18) and held the Bills to 29 rushing yards on 14 carries. That said, this is a revenge game for Buffalo and I don't like what I've seen from Jacksonville thus far. 

Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals 

• Summer look-ahead line: Bengals -7, 48
• Week 3 opener: Bengals -7, 47.5
• Current odds: Bengals -7.5, 47

There isn't much to discuss here. The Bengals will be the most popular "teaser" leg in NFL Week 3 and, regardless of Washington beating the Giants Sunday, bettors are hammering Cincy. With that in mind, sportsbooks will be rooting for the Commanders Monday if "fading the public" is your thing. 

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