NFL Divisional Round Player Props: Texans-Ravens, Packers-49ers
I've heard a bunch of NFL bettors say this is their favorite week of the season. Personally, I hate the divisional round. Every year I go on a heater to end the regular season. It extends into the wild card weekend then I get crushed this week. That said, I'm only making "Pizza Bets" with these player props in Texans-Ravens and Packers-49ers.
NFL Divisional Weekend 2024 Player Props
Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens, Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET
The guys who actually make money betting player props insist on correlating those with your projected game script. Earlier this week, I gave out the UNDER 44 in Texans-Ravens so my player props fit that description.
UNDER 35.5 receiving yards (-115) for Texans TE Dalton Schultz at PointsBet
The center of Baltimore's defense is world-class. Ravens LB Roquan Smith is a top-three defensive QB in the NFL. Baltimore rookie safety Kyle Hamilton is already one of the best in the league at his position and a difference-maker.
In the Week 1 Texans-Ravens meeting, Schultz had just 2 receptions for 4 yards on 4 targets. Granted, that was Houston QB C.J. Stroud's first game but Stroud has played well all season. San Francisco TE George Kittle is the only tight end to go Over 30 receiving yards vs. Baltimore's defense this season.
Ravens safety Ar'Darius Washington breaks up a pass thrown to Houston Texans TE Dalton Schultz at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. (Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, PointsBet is dealing a higher number for Schultz's receiving yards than most shops. Pinnacle Sportsbook lists Schultz's receiving yards prop at 33.5 and there's more juice on the Under. This is relevant because Pinnacle is considered one of the sharpest sportsbooks in the world.
UNDER 36.5 receiving yards (+105) for Ravens WR Odell Beckham Jr. at DraftKings
OBJ mostly lines up out wide and will be facing Texans CB Derek Stingley Jr. who has blossomed in his second year. When these two met in the season opener, Beckham only caught 2 passes on 3 targets but went for 37 receiving yards.
Baltimore Ravens WR Odell Beckham Jr. lines up against Houston Texans Derek Stingley Jr. in NFL Week 1 at M&T Bank Stadium. (Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Yet, I'm more focused on the "3 targets" than total output. Baltimore's offense has too many mouths to feed and Stingley is the fifth-best cornerback in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus. Finally, OBJ has gone Over 36.5 receiving yards in just six of his 14 games this season.
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers, Saturday at 8:15 p.m. ET
I feel opposite way about this game compared to Texans-Ravens. Meaning, I like the Over for the game. Packers QB Jordan Love is cooking and the 49ers have the best offense in the NFL. With that in mind, I'm looking for cheap Overs on the following player props.
OVER 15.5 rushing yards (-110) for 49ers WR Deebo Samuel at DraftKings
Deebo gets a lot more carries when games matter. Samuel is averaging roughly five rushing attempts per game in the playoffs to just 2.4 carries in the regular season. He's gone Over this number in six of his nine career postseason games including twice versus the Packers.
San Francisco 49ers Deebo Samuel carries the ball versus the Packers in the 2022 NFL Divisional Round at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. (Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)
During the regular season, Deebo ran for more than 15.5 yards in five of his 15 games. But, Samuel had at least three rushes in all of those games. I think Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan gets Deebo a few carries Saturday night and Green Bay has a bottom-10 rush defense.
OVER 8.5 rushing yards (-112) for Packers QB Jordan Love at FanDuel
Since I have the Niners winning this game, the Packers won't be kneeing the ball at the end of the game. That alleviates a concern for betting the Over on this low rushing total. Furthermore, Love has rushed for 10+ yards in five of Green Bay's eight losses this season.
Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love scrambles vs. the Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau Field. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Adding to that, the Packers spread the ball around a lot in their offense. So San Francisco's defense might not worry about Love taking off. We could see Love use his legs to pick up "must-have" first downs.