NFL Divisional Round Betting Picks To Fade From The Worst Analyst On The Planet
There is arguably no better way to make money betting on the NFL than by simply fading every pick I make. That's not hyperbole. Including Wild Card Weekend, I have gone an abysmal (10-24-1) since Week 12. But shooters shoot and my goal is to make OutKick readers money, even if that means losing my own cash.
NFL Wild Card Betting Picks (3-5)
Justin Herbert UNDER 230.5 passing yards ❌
Pittsburgh Steelers (+9.5) over Baltimore Ravens ❌
Buffalo Bills (-8.5) over Denver Broncos ✅
Green Bay Packers (+4.5) over Philadelphia Eagles ❌
Jayden Daniels OVER 48.5 rushing yards ❌, OVER 8.5 rush attempts ✅ & OVER 14.5 longest rush ❌
Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) over Minnesota Vikings ✅
SEASON REPORT CARD (36-43-1, 46%)
*You can track all my betting picks for the season here
NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Betting Picks
Lines are the best available from oddschecker.com as of Wednesday afternoon.
Houston Texans (+6.5) over Kansas City Chiefs FIRST HALF
I'm betting on the Texans to cover the number for the first half against the Kansas City Chiefs. Why? Simple. The Chiefs haven't played a meaningful football game since Christmas Day. They rested their starters in Week 18 and then had a bye for the Wild Card Round.
It's actually crazy, when you think about it, that when this game kicks off, Patrick Mahomes won't have taken a snap in an NFL game in 24 days. Yeah, I think that's going to matter in the first half of this game.
Patrick Mahomes hasn't taken a meaningful NFL snap since Christmas Day, which will impact the game against the Houston Texans.
(Charles LeClaire/Imagn Images)
The Texans are riding some momentum after embarrassing the Chargers in the Wild Card round and I believe they can keep this game competitive – at least for the first 30 minutes. This is a great number, too, particularly if the Texans start the game with the ball.
That's always a risk when taking first-half bets – if your team doesn't start with the football, it puts you at a disadvantage. Still, Houston averages more first-half points (12.9) than they do second-half points (9.5) by a wide margin. The Texans ranked top 10 in the NFL in first-half points scored and in the bottom 10 in second-half points.
I expect Andy Reid to have a good gameplan ready, but I also believe he wants to ease his team back into game action and bleed the clock a bit in the first half while feeling out the game. In addition, I expect Reid to make the necessary adjustments in the second half, which is why I prefer Houston in the first half more than I do for the overall game.
Washington Commanders (+9.5) over Detroit Lions
I'm all-in on the Washington Commanders and Jayden Daniels. In fact, I believe there's a world where they shock everyone and win this game outright. YOU HEARD ME!
At some point, the injuries to the Detroit Lions are going to catch up to them. Arguably no team had worse injury luck than the Lions this season, yet they've managed to keep it together. But, to be honest, I'm buying stock in the fact that both the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers had poor showings in the NFC playoffs.
I'm backing Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders to keep it close against the #1 seed in the NFC, the Detroit Lions.
(Kim Klement Neitzel/Imagn Images)
It turns out that Detroit win over Minnesota in Week 18 to clinch the No. 1 overall seed wasn't as impressive as it appeared. This isn't to say the Lions aren't good, because they are. But what's the last great win they had? They beat the Texans by three in Week 10, is that the one?
I know you could make a similar argument about Washington, but the Commanders did beat Philadelphia less than a month ago, and they beat a very good (and underrated) Tampa Bay team on the road in the Wild Card round.
Plus, quite frankly, I'd take Jayden Daniels over Jared Goff right now. I also don't think there's a massive gap at head coach, either. Dan Campbell is great, but Dan Quinn is underrated.
The Commanders are on a six-game win streak after a mid-season hiccup, but bumps come with starting a rookie quarterback. If you're going to bet on a huge underdog to shock the world, you better pick one with a quarterback who can make incredible plays. I'll take the points, but don't be shocked if Washington finds a way to win it.
Philadelphia Eagles (-6) over Los Angeles Rams
I actually really like the Rams and think they are a bit underrated. That being said, this is a terrible matchup for Los Angeles. The problem is that the Rams are not a great pass-blocking team and the Eagles boast one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. That's going to a huge issue for LA in this game.
Really, the Eagles should dominate this game up front on both sides of the ball, and that's hard to overcome. I believe that the Rams hold significant advantages at both head coach and quarterback, which is important, but not if your team can't win in the trenches. And I just don't think the Rams can win on either the offensive or defensive line enough to keep this game close.
Philadelphia rolled the Rams earlier this season, and there's really no reason to think that shouldn't happen again. Saquon Barkley ran for 255 yards, and the Rams just don't have an answer for the Eagles' rushing attack. That should allow Philly to get out to an early lead, which means the Eagles pass rush can pin its ears back and dominate.
Plus, you have a Los Angeles team that essentially had to evacuate its home because of the California wildfires and play a "home" playoff game in Arizona. Now, they have to travel across the country to play in Philadelphia, one of the most difficult places for opposing teams. I'm shocked this line is less than a full touchdown, so I'll take the Eagles to comfortably make their way to the NFC Championship Game.
Buffalo Bills (+1) over Baltimore Ravens
I don't have a ton to say about this game. Numbers-wise, the Ravens are probably the better team. John Harbaugh is a better coach than Sean McDermott and the Ravens' defense is better than the Bills' defense.
I'm just putting my faith in Josh Allen. He's going to have to put the team on his back to win this game and I think he does it. Lamar Jackson's playoff struggles are well-documented, so I'm going to take the QB I think shows up in the big moment.