NFL Christmas 2023 Weekend Betting Guide
If you're like me, this is the biggest gambling weekend of the year. Not only does the NBA have its annual 5-game Christmas slate. But, the NFL scheduled games Saturday, Christmas Eve Sunday and Christmas Monday too.
The holidays have made a sizable dent in my bank account. So I'm using this weekend to get some of my money back. Since Week 1 of the NFL season, my record in these Weekend Betting Guides is 46-31-4 and I'm +14.84 units (u).
Weekend Betting Guide for December 15-17 recap: 2-2-1
NFL Christmas Weekend Betting Guide
6-Point 'Teaser' for NFL Week 16: Steelers, Titans & Broncos
For those who don't know, DraftKings Sportsbook offers 6-point teasers in the NFL. A "teaser" is when you add 6 points to a line but have to combine at least two teams and both have to win for the teaser to cash. At DraftKings, a 3-team teaser has +160 odds.
1st-Leg: Pittsburgh Steelers up to +9 at home vs. Cincinnati Bengals Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
This is the first game of the NFL Saturday doubleheader. The Steelers beat the Bengals 16-10 on the road in Week 12. It was Cincy second-string QB Jake Browning's first start this season. Pittsburgh held the Bengals to 25 rushing yards and 10 first downs.
Pittsburgh Steelers LB T.J. Watt sacks Bengals QB Jake Browning in an NFL game at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Jeff Moreland/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
But, you'd be up money if you blindly bet Pittsburgh as underdogs in division games under coach Mike Tomlin. Since 2018, the Steelers are 21-6 on a 6-point teaser (77.8%) as underdogs vs. AFC North teams. They are 7-0 vs. 6-point teasers at home in those spots.
2nd-Leg: Tennessee Titans up to +9.5 at home vs. Seattle Seahawks, Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Since hiring head coach Mike Vrabel in 2018, Tennessee is 16-4 vs. 6-point teasers as home 'dogs. The Titans lost at home to the Houston Texans 19-16 in overtime last week. Following a loss, they are 14-4 vs. 6-point teasers (77.8%) at home over that span.
Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel calls for an extra point after a TD vs. the Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. (Rich Storry/Getty Images)
Also, typically in the NFL, you want to fade teams coming off of big primetime wins. The Seahawks upset the Philadelphia Eagles 20-17 on Monday Night Football in Week 15. Seattle backup QB Drew Lock threw a game-winning TD with 28 seconds remaining. I.e. the Seahawks are due for a let-down game.
3rd-Leg: Denver Broncos down to -1 at home vs. New England Patriots, Sunday Night Football
This is a brief handicap. The Patriots suck, Denver is a tough place to play in the winter, and I want a plus-money payout for this teaser. A lot of people are surprised about New England's downfall.
But, not me. I predicted this in the preseason. I could cash a bet for the Patriots to have the worst record in the NFL if the Carolina Panthers can get their act together.
Bet 1u on a Steelers-Titans-Broncos 6-point teaser at DraftKings (+160)
Bet slip for a 6-point NFL Week 16 teaser from DraftKings Sportsbook.
UNDER 44 in Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
Buffalo finally took pressure off of QB Josh Allen's shoulders last week by establishing the run in a 31-10 victory over the Dallas Cowboys. Allen attempted only 15 passes and Bills RB James Cook rushed for a career-best 179 yards.
Bills head coach Sean McDermott fired former offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey earlier this season. McDermott did so presumably to play more "complimentary football" and to hide his injury-riddled defense.
With that in mind, I expect the Bills to run the ball often again Saturday. The Chargers have a terrible rush defense and most of Buffalo's losses in recent seasons have been due to costly turnovers. LAC is missing QB Justin Herbert and their two best WRs, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
Buffalo Bills RB James Cook runs the ball on the Dallas Cowboys at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. (Lauren Leigh Bacho/Getty Images)
The Bills are 2-8 Over/Under (O/U) over their last 10 games and 4-10 O/U this year. The Chargers are 2-8 O/U in the last 10 games and 4-10 O/U as well. LAC fired former head coach Brandon Staley after they got crushed 63-21 in Week 15.
If the Chargers get a boost after firing their head coach, it'll come on the defensive side of the ball. Staley was a defensive coach and the Chargers have way more talent in that unit.
Finally, more than 80 percent of the action is on the Over as of 5 p.m. ET Friday, per Pregame.com. This is an overreaction to LAC giving up 63 points last week and Buffalo scoring 30. The public loves betting Overs, especially in primetime games. This season, primetime games are 18-32 O/U.
Bet 1.1 on Under 44 in Bills-Chargers (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
America's Game of the Week: Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins (-120) Christmas Eve, 4:25 p.m. ET
Aside from the Los Angeles Rams over New Orleans Saints on Thursday Night Football, the Dolphins beating the Cowboys is my favorite bet in NFL Week 16. Both teams struggle versus tough teams but Dallas's big-game woes have gone on longer.
Essentially, my pro-Miami analysis boils down to the Dolphins having the better QB, head coach, and defense and Dallas playing like trash on the road. Plus, Miami is second to only the San Francisco 49ers in net efficiency.
Risk 2u on the Miami Dolphins moneyline (-120) at Caesars
NFL Christmas Main Event: Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Essentially, my pro-Miami analysis boils down to the Dolphins having the better QB, head coach, and defense and Dallas playing like trash on the road. Plus, Miami is second to only the San Francisco 49ers in net efficiency.