NFL Betting Picks To Fade In Week 11 From Worst Analyst On Internet, Currently On Atrocious 6-24 Skid
The headline says it all. After a very successful 2022-23 season and a terrific start to this year, I am on the coldest streak on NFL betting picks of my life. I think I'm currently the worst NFL betting analyst on the Internet heading into Week 11, however, that's hard to determine.
Why? Because everyone else hides it when they lose. Cowards.
I scream it loudly and proudly. You might wonder why I do that. Well, my friends, the goal of my NFL betting picks is to help YOU win money. One way to do that is to give you winners. But the OTHER way to do that is to give you losers to bet against. You're welcome.
Week 10 NFL Betting Picks (3-7)
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears UNDER 38 points ✅
Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots OVER 43.5 points ❌
Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 38.5 points ❌
Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) over New Orleans Saints ✅
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 48 points ❌
San Francisco 49ers (-3) over Jacksonville Jaguars ✅
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 38 points ❌
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Chargers UNDER 48.5 points ❌
New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders OVER 36 points ❌
Buffalo Bills (-7.5) over Denver Broncos ❌
Normally, I recap the previous week here. There's no need to do that. If you faded my picks like I told you to, you would have gone 7-3. Once again, you're welcome.
SEASON REPORT CARD
SPREADS: 9-12
TOTALS: 11-19
OVERALL: 20-31 (39%)
Week 11 NFL Betting Picks To Fade
Lines are from PointsBet Sportsbook as of Wednesday afternoon.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens UNDER 46 points
First, one extremely profitable betting strategy this season is to just bet the primetime games UNDER the total. Of the 32 primetime games this season, a whopping 25 (78%) have gone UNDER. Second, this is a high number for two teams that have good defenses.
The Ravens defense is elite and the Bengals were playing well until C.J. Stroud went off. But, he's doing that to everyone. Lamar might, too, but Cincinnati coaches have seen him enough times to have a good plan in place.
Third, this is an AFC North rivalry game between two Super contenders on a short week. I expect a tightly contested match. Plus, these are two of the most conservative coaches in the entire NFL.
Add it all up and it's the perfect recipe for an UNDER. Which means it probably goes OVER just because that's the season is going for me.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions OVER 47 points
The idea that this game's total is just one point higher than the Ravens/Bengals number is befuddling. Justin Fields returns for the Bears and while I don't think he's a great NFL quarterback, he does things that put points on the board.
He makes huge plays with his legs that lead to offensive points and terrible decisions with his arm that often lead to defensive points. Only nine NFL teams this season have posted more OVERS than UNDERS and these are two of them.
Plus, this is a game in a dome. Justin Fields averages over two more yards per carry (8.5 to 6.4) in domes than he does outdoors. Jared Goff, on the other hand, completes 67% of his passes in domes compared to 62% outdoors and his passer rating is eight points higher indoors.
Expect Jared Goff and the Detroit Lionsto put up points against the Chicago Bears and back the OVER with an NFL betting pick in Week 11. (Photo Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports)
This number should be around 50, but the league-wide trend of low-scoring games is driving down the price.
Tennessee Titans UNDER 16.5 points at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Titans are a mess right now as they transition from veteran quarterback Ryan Tannehill to rookie Will Levis. Levis came out of the gates strong with a victory in his first NFL start, but since then the team has scored 22 total points across two losses.
Would it shock you to know that the Titans have scored EXACTLY 16 points in three of their past five games? What a weird number to consistently hit. Anyway, I don't think they cross that threshold this week. Jacksonville held two similar offenses -- Pittsburgh and Atlanta -- to 10 and 7 points respectively.
I think their defense is pissed after last week's dismantling and want to come out and really put the boot down on a struggling offense in an important Week 11 matchup.
Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 over Cleveland Browns
I'm shocked that the Deshaun Watson injury didn't move the Steelers to favorites in this game. (UPDATE: No joke, right after I bet this, the line moved to Steelers -1. For the record, I'm still backing Pittsburgh at that number).
Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers are 7-1 against-the-spread in their last 8 matchups against the Cleveland Browns.
Mike Tomlin owns Kevin Stefanski and that makes the Steelers a great NFL betting pick in Week 11. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
Now, the Browns turn to backup QB P.J. Walker. The total for this game is 33.5 points, which might be the lowest total I've ever seen for a game not expected to be impacted by severe weather. But in a game that's projected to be close and low-scoring, give me Tomlin and Kenny Pickett over Kevin Stefanski and P.J. Walker in Week 11.
Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Green Bay Packers
I think the Chargers go into Green Bay and absolutely roll the Packers. The biggest problem for L.A. is that they can't win big games against good teams. But, they take care of business against bad teams. Make no mistake: the Packers are a bad team.
The Chargers thumped the Bears and the Jets, two teams that they're much better than. I don't think playing on the road affects them much because they don't even have a home-field advantage when they're in Los Angeles. In fact, if this game were in LA, there would almost certainly be more Packers fans in the stands anyway.
The Packers started 2-1 and are 1-5 since. Their only win came against Brett Rypien and the Los Angeles Rams. Justin Herbert is the best QB the Packers have faced this season. I expect him to carve up this defense and cover the number easily.
Dallas Cowboys -10.5 at Carolina Panthers
Other than their horrible misstep against the Arizona Cardinals, the Cowboys have absolutely dismantled every bad team on their schedule.
Look at the scores of their games against teams with three wins or fewer: 40-0 over the Giants, 30-10 over the Jets, 38-3 over the Patriots, 43-20 over the Rams, and 49-17 over the Giants again.
The Dallas Cowboys put up massive points against bad opponents and that's why I'm making them one of my NFL betting picks in Week 11 over the Carolina Panthers. (Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images)
Dallas flexes its muscles against terrible teams, but lost to both San Francisco and Philadelphia and beat the Chargers by a field goal. Plus, yes, that terrible loss to the Cardinals. I'll forgive that one, though.
Even if you add in the Cardinals loss, Dallas is outscoring teams with three wins or fewer by an average of 36-13. No reason they can't continue that against the Carolina Panthers, the only one-win team left in the NFL this season.
Arizona Cardinals +4.5 at Houston Texans
I really like what Houston is doing this year. They're way better than most people thought (though, I predicted that prior to the season). However, they're getting a little too much hype right now and are due for a "back-to-earth" type game.
Coming off a massive win over the Bengals, Houston is riding high. But, they've needed game-winning drives in each of their past two victories. Kyler Murray returned to the Cardinals lineup and looked pretty sharp. He doesn't appear to have any lingering effects from his knee injury.
The Texans struggle with mobile quarterbacks, and tend to win against more traditional pocket-type passers. Murray's mobility is a huge factor in this game and I think Arizona can hang with Houston.
Kyler Murray made a strong return to the Arizona Cardinals lineup and can help keep the team in the game against the Houston Texans in Week 11. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
Plus, Jonathan Gannon looks like a solid NFL coach thus far. His defensive background should allow him to at least have a plan for C.J. Stroud now that teams have nine games of tape. Not saying they stop him completely, but they can keep this game within a field goal.
Los Angeles Rams +0.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
First of all, how often do you see a +0.5 spread??? I have to bet it, just on principle and I hope they tie. On the real, though, the Seahawks should not be road favorites against the Rams. Matthew Stafford is back and reportedly should be close to 100% after the bye week.
The Seahawks are 6-3 but actually have a negative point differential on the season. In other words, it's a misleading 6-3 record. The Rams, on the other hand, have mostly lost to really good teams. Their first five losses came against San Francisco, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Dallas.
They already smashed the Seahawks at Seattle in Week 1 and now Cooper Kupp is back for this matchup. There's no reason the Seahawks should be favored in this game, so I'll take the "wrong team favored" approach with the Rams.
Buffalo Bills -7 vs. New York Jets
Yep, I'm right back on the Bills. People are overreacting to bad turnover luck and burying Buffalo, but I still believe they're one of the 7-8 best teams in the NFL. The Jets are ... not.
This one is simple for me. The Bills are way better than the Jets and this spread is too low based on the public perception around Buffalo. Which is incorrect, by the way.
Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos UNDER 43 points
Another primetime UNDER here, as Josh Dobbs can't possibly keep up this pace and the Broncos offense looked mostly bad against Buffalo. Yes, they won the game. But, one of their touchdowns came on a prayer throw from Russell Wilson to Courtland Sutton.
I have to give them credit, too, as their defense has improved a lot since a terrible start. Both teams run block very well and I expect a heavy dose of both rushing attacks in this one. Alexander Mattison might not play, and I think that's actually good news for Minnesota.
He's been terribly inefficient this season and they need to give second-year back Ty Chandler a look. In fact, they already were giving Chandler more touches before Mattison suffered a concussion on Sunday.
For Denver, they clearly want their running backs involved. Javonte Williams appears all the way back from last year's ACL injury and has 55 touches over the past two games. Their backups runners -- Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine -- also have over 20 touches combined in the past two contests. That's 38 touches per game for RBs over the past two weeks. RB touches = clock moving.
That's it for me, good luck to everyone in Week 11, whether you fade or follow!