NFL Betting Picks To Fade In Week 10 From Analyst On Atrocious 3-17 Skid Includes TEN Picks Because Shooters Shoot
Some people say it's actually harder to lose than it is to win. In that case, I'm a damn superstar. After hitting 62% of my NFL betting picks in the regular season last year, I got off to a strong start this season. After Week 5, I was 14-7. Since then, I've gone 3-17 (15%) -- including a 1-5 disaster last week. The good news is I have a fresh batch of Week 10 NFL betting picks for you to fade.
Week 9 NFL Betting Picks (1-5)
Miami Dolphins (+2) over Kansas City Chiefs ❌
Chicago Bears (+8.5) over New Orleans Saints ✅
New York Giants (+2) over Las Vegas Raiders ❌
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans UNDER 40 points ❌
Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons UNDER 37.5 points ❌
Washington Commanders at New England Patriots OVER 41 points ❌
This is the section where I normally recap last week. I went 1-5, there's not much to say. I could complain about the Tyreek Hill fumble not actually being a catch in the first place, completely screwing over the Dolphins.
Or I could whine about Daniel Jones getting hurt, immediately killing our Giants look. Perhaps I could make a fuss about the Patriots and Commanders combining for 37 points in the first three quarters before going scoreless in the final frame, thanks in large part to JuJu Smith-Schuster letting a ball go right through his hands for a redzone interception.
But, I'm not going to do any of that. It's onto Week 10.
SEASON REPORT CARD (41% Overall)
Record in against-the-spread bets: 7-11 (40%)
Record in over/under bets: 10-13 (43%)
*You can track all my betting picks for the season here
Week 10 NFL Betting Picks
Lines are from PointsBet Sportsbook as of Wednesday afternoon.
I've spent hours researching each and every pick this season, wasting valuable time finding the absolute wrong side of the bet. This week, we're changing it up. I'm just gonna fire straight from the hip and see what happens. And, I usually only give out 4-6 picks. This week, I'm delivering TEN. I'm trying to get the OutKick readers PAID!
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears UNDER 38.5 points (Thursday)
Neither of these teams are any good and they now play on a short week. Unders are 3-1 over the past four Thursday Night Football games. Justin Fields seems unlikely to play meaning we have two rookies facing one another in a primetime spot.
That could easily mean some big time turnovers that lead to easy points. It could also mean neither team can get into the endzone offensively. I'm betting that's the case with your first NFL betting pick to fade in Week 10.
Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots OVER 43.5 points (Sunday morning in Germany)
The Patriots should have hit the OVER last week if not for some brutal redzone play out of both teams. The Colts, despite starting Gardner Minshew, actually love to throw the ball all over the yard. The Colts are one of the heaviest OVER teams in the NFL because of head coach Shane Steichen.
Typically, the overseas games are low-scoring. I think this game has the potential to buck that trend in a big way. The Patriots defense loves to allow points. No reason to think that trend stops here. The Patriots offense might seem anemic ... because it is. But, they averaged over five yards per play last week.
Bill O'Brien and Mac Jones are fighting for their NFL careers, so expect some points and back the OVER against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 10. (Photo by Matthew J. Lee/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
This is less about that and more about the Colts trying to speed up the game because that's what they do. But again, I could be wrong. That's happened a lot lately. Still, expect points in Germany for NFL betting pick #2 to fade in Week 10.
Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 38.5 points
Rookie quarterback Will Levis lit it up in his debut before struggling a bit in his second start. However, that came in Pittsburgh on a short week. A tough test, to be sure. But, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers just allowed CJ Stroud to set an NFL record for passing yards in a game by a rookie. Not saying Levis is going to match that, but at least the Titans are willing to let him throw the ball down the field.
Most NFL teams are playing shell defenses to stop the big play, but the Bucs are very weak in the secondary outside of Antoine Winfield, Jr. However, he can't do everything. The Titans secondary isn't much better and they don't have any players of Winfield's caliber after trading away Kevin Byard.
Both of these teams traditionally love UNDERS, but that analysis has burned me so many times over the last few weeks. I'm going to try to get ahead of it this week and say this line is just way too low. There you go, another great NFL betting pick to fade in Week 10.
Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) over New Orleans Saints
I entered this week fully ready to fade the Minnesota Vikings. After all, the Josh Dobbs story was great, but that performance seems incredibly not repeatable. Also, I thought the market would react to that story and slide the line towards the Vikings.
But it didn't. This line didn't move at all from last week. Why not? Were people impressed by the Saints beating the Chicago Bears by one score despite winning the turnover battle by 5 and the penalty battle by over 60 yards? They should have crushed the Bears, based on only those two stats alone.
Using an NFL betting pick on Josh Dobbs ... what could go wrong?? (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)
But, they didn't. Why? Because New Orleans is a ridiculously overrated team with a terrible head coach and a quarterback on the downswing of a relatively average NFL career. Josh Dobbs led the Cardinals to three-straight ATS wins to start the season before reality set in. He started his Vikings career the same way. It won't last forever, but it should last at least another week.
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 48 points
Everyone is going to hammer the OVER in this matchup because of what CJ Stroud did last week against Tampa Bay. Plus, on the other side people see Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon and company and assume this game is ripe for a shootout.
It might be. But, I don't think so. The obvious play here is to fade Stroud coming off a historic performance. Additionally, Chase is banged up. Cincinnati's defense is actually fairly underrated, but in the past three weeks they've held the Seahawks, 49ers and Bills all under 20 points. Four of their past six have gone UNDER the total. As have each of their past three home games.
Houston had four-straight unders before last week's explosion. This is a perfect "Rule of Dan Z" spot. Fade what everyone else assumes: Joe Burrow vs. CJ Stroud shootout and back the UNDER for NFL betting pick to fade #5 in Week 10.
San Francisco 49ers (-3) over Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have been incredible this season, both straight-up and against-the-spread (6-2, 5-0 in the past five). The 49ers are on a three-game losing streak. Brock Purdy looks more like the last overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and Trevor Lawrence looks more like the #1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Week 10 presents the perfect opportunity to fade Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars with an NFL betting pick. Or, fade me. That might be the better play. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)
So, why would I ever back San Francisco in this matchup? Everything I just said. Jacksonville is the darling of the NFL and I expect them to be a public underdog this week. When the public zigs, you should zag. Although, arguably when I zig you should zag, so maybe take Jacksonville. After all, what the hell do I know?
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 39 points
Pittsburgh has had ONE game go OVER the total this season. ONE. Additionally, when Tomlin's Steelers are a home favorite, his team is 12-4-1 to the UNDER over the past 17 games, dating back to 2020. Green Bay is coming in with a four-game UNDER streak and for good reason.
Jordan Love and the Packers offense just stinks. They haven't scored over 20 points in a game since Week 2. Both teams have two running backs that they want involved, so expect a low-scoring highly-contested game between two below-average offenses.
Which means, of course, that this pair explodes for a massive shootout, because I'm wrong all the time. So, pick whichever side you want for another Week 10 NFL betting pick.
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Chargers UNDER 48.5 points
This is another example of people looking at the two teams involved and thinking POINTS. But the Chargers are on a ridiculous six-game UNDER streak. That might surprise people but it's true. Their defense is actually playing quite a bit better this season. Plus, their passing attacks isn't as potent with all the injuries to their wide receiving corps.
Expect an improved Chargers defense to keep the scoring low in Week 10 against the Lions and use an NFL betting pick on the UNDER. Or don't, I don't care. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
That means a lot more Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen, who are good players but both are more chain-movers than explosive playmakers. Similar story on the other side. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a terrific wide receiver, but operates mostly underneath. They have two running backs they want to utilize and David Montgomery likely returns this week.
The best players on both sides are mostly guys who keep the clock moving, so expect a lower-scoring game than many might anticipate. Or, don't. What do I care?
New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders OVER 36 points (Sunday night)
It defies logic that the NFL decided to keep a game on Sunday Night Football with a total of 36 points. The league does everything it can to make offenses more exciting, and then they give fans this abomination in primetime. So, I'm going tin-foil hat here.
The NFL knows something we don't, which means points are coming in this matchup. Both quarterbacks stink, so I'm banking on some massive turnovers that lead to easy points. Perhaps even some defensive scoring.
Either way, I can't believe there's an NFL game that's going to be played under normal weather conditions with a total this low. It just can't happen. Back the OVER with (or fade me and take the UNDER) with another Week 10 NFL betting pick.
Buffalo Bills (-7.5) over Denver Broncos (Monday night)
Public sentiment on the Bills is down after another primetime loss. People are questioning Josh Allen. The Denver Broncos are coming off a victory over the Chiefs, a two-game winning streak and a bye week. Public sentiment on the Broncos is at its peak.
Public zigs, you zag. Back the Bills with your final NFL betting pick of the week. Or, fade me a again and give yourself a chance to go 10-0 in NFL betting picks in Weel 10. Your choice.