NFL Betting Picks To Fade For Week 9 Include Dolphins Germany Win & Bears Covering Vs. Overrated Saints
Yes, the headline says "NFL betting picks to fade for Week 9." I'm not going to sugarcoat this: I am in the midst of the worst NFL betting picks slump of my life. After hitting 62% in the regular season last year, I got off to a strong start this season. After Week 5, I was 14-7. Since then, I've gone 2-12 -- including an 0-5 disaster last week.
So, yes, if you believe my slump is due to continue, please fade my picks. If you think I turn it around this week (I certainly do), then jump on board for the next hot streak...
Week 8 NFL Betting Picks (0-5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars ❌
Cleveland Browns (+3) over Seattle Seahawks ❌
Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans UNDER 36.5 points ❌
Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers OVER 43 points ❌
Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals UNDER 44 points ❌
I'm not going to say anything here. I went 0-5 and that says plenty. The good news is that I started so hot that even the cold streak dropped me just under 50% for the season.
SEASON REPORT CARD (46% Overall)
Record in against-the-spread bets: 6-9 (40%)
Record in over/under bets: 10-10 (50%)
*You can track all my betting picks for the season here
Week 8 NFL Betting Picks
Lines are from PointsBet Sportsbook as of Thursday afternoon.
OK, I took some time this week to re-think the process. That's why these picks came out a little later in the week. Sometimes you just need to reset when it comes to sports betting, and that's what I tried to do ahead of Week 9. With that, let's get to the NFL betting picks...
Miami Dolphins (+2) over Kansas City Chiefs (in Germany)
I need to get back to basics. That means following my own advice. One thing I've harped on this season, with regard to these European games, is that the team that gets there first usually wins. Both the Falcons and the Jaguars left on Thursday night prior to the first London game. Both teams were sloppy early.
The Jaguars had a huge advantage over the Buffalo Bills by staying in the UK for the entire week and it showed on the field. In the final London game, the Baltimore Ravens headed to Europe early in the week, while the Titans waited until Thursday. Once again, this showed on the field.
The Miami Dolphins took the Ravens approach. Head coach Mike McDaniel flew the team to Germany on Monday and gave the players Tuesday off to sightsee and get acclimated to the time change. Smart.
The Chiefs, however, are taking a different approach. They aren't leaving until after practice on Thursday. I believe that's a mistake.
Chiefs players are already complaining about the travel, too, and they haven't even left yet. That does not bode well. Plus, Kansas City played a road game in Week 8, meaning they traveled to Denver then back to Kansas City and then off to Germany. That's a lot. Not to mention the Dolphins have been the better team overall this season heading into Week 9.
So the better team with the better travel plan is getting points in this game? Lock in "wrong team favored" with NFL betting pick #1.
Chicago Bears (+8.5) over New Orleans Saints
This line is out-of-control. In the preseason, the Saints were two-point favorites. Last week, the line jumped to 5.5. Now, it's all the way up to 8.5. That's just too big of a jump. I think the Saints are overrated, with no impressive wins on their resume. They're 4-4 with wins over the Titans, Panthers, Patriots and Colts.
Tyson Bagent and the Bears looked bad in a primetime loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. I expected that. But, again, there's just too much overreaction in this line. Plus, despite seeming like an obvious "sell" team at the NFL Trade Deadline, the Bears instead traded for Washington pass rusher Montez Sweat. Sweat immediately improves a pass rush with a league-low 10 sacks this season.
Expect a bounce-back from Tyson Bagent and the Chicago Bears and use an NFL betting pick on them to cover against the Saints in Week 9. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)
The Saints offensive line has been one of the worst in the league at protecting the quarterback. The Bears, meanwhile, actually boast a reasonably strong offensive line and the Saints defensive line also struggles to get the quarterback down. New Orleans is tied with a large group of teams that are ahead of the Bears with 15 sacks this season.
The key to really making it tough on rookies is getting the pass rush in his face. I don't think the Saints are going to be able to do that enough to warrant being well over a touchdown favorite in this game. Plus, despite the huge spread, DraftKings has taken nearly 90% of the bets on the Saints. Back the Bears with NFL betting pick #2.
New York Giants (+2) over Las Vegas Raiders
I know, I know. This seems like the squarest play on the board. Here's the shocking part: it isn't. According to DraftKings, more bets are on the RAIDERS. Other sites show that the money is somewhere around even. I really don't get it.
The Raiders just fired their head coach and GM and benched their starting quarterback. So, a rookie head coach in his first career NFL game with a rookie quarterback in his second-career NFL start ... and that team is ... favored? That's absurd.
Brian Daboll made some horrendous coaching decisions late in last week's game against the Jets and cost his team a win. If he hadn't done that, I think there's a good chance the Giants are favored here. DESPITE PASSING FOR -9 YARDS. Yes, the New York Giants should have won an NFL game with negative passing yards. Imagine if they throw for positive yards this week???
Brian Daboll made some poor coaching choices last week, but I expect both him and the New York Giants to be a lot better in Week 9 against the Raiders. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
The Raiders rush defense is terrible and Saquon Barkley is going to EAT. Daniel Jones returns to the lineup and he's at his best when the run game gets going and he can use play-action. The Giants will have no trouble doing that in this game. Additionally, the Giants aren't *quite* as bad as their record says.
Prior to the Jets disaster, the Giants losses came against the Cowboys, 49ers, Seahawks, Dolphins and Bills. Those are some of the best teams in the league. They beat the Commanders and the Cardinals, who have a lot more in common with the Raiders than those other teams. And, actually, all of the Giants losses are to teams with current winning records. Again, unlike Las Vegas.
I just don't think the Raiders should be favored against anyone, especially after the Bears embarrassed them two weeks ago. The Giants are a better team, currently, and I'll take the two points, too, for NFL betting pick #3.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans UNDER 40 points
The Houston Texans suddenly stopped being aggressive last week against the Carolina Panthers. Despite having a rookie quarterback, Houston passed the ball a lot early in the season. However, it appears that Stroud's quick start has given way to some rookie struggles. That's to be expected. Thus, they want to get the run game established.
Against a team like Tampa Bay, Houston won't need to score a ton of points. Hell, they could have won last week by scoring 16. They just ... didn't. Since scoring 67 points combined against the Jaguars and Steelers, the Texans average only 17 points over the past three. They beat the Saints 20-13 in Week 6, and that seems like the recipe to follow here.
The Houston Texans solid defense should help keep the score low against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, making the UNDER a strong NFL betting pick in Week 9. (Photo by Eakin Howard/Getty Images)
The Buccaneers have actually been even worse over the past three, averaging just 12 points per game. They've had only one game all season go OVER the total and that came back in Week 2. Houston has two OVERS this season and they came in Weeks 2 and 3. So, since Week 4 these teams are combined 8-0 to the UNDER.
That's why I'm surprised this total is 40 points. Books are shifting their totals due to low scoring across the league. Week 9 features FIVE games with a total under 40 points. This should be one of them, but for some reason it isn't. Take the UNDER with NFL betting pick #4.
Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons UNDER 37.5 points
This might surprise people, but even with Kirk Cousins, the Vikings are the heaviest UNDER team in the NFL (7-1 to the UNDER, tied with the NY Giants). So, if they couldn't score enough points with Cousins, how are they going to do it with fifth-round rookie Jaren Hall?
Taylor Heinicke takes over as the starter for Desmond Ridder, but I don't think that changes much on Atlanta's side. They still want to run the ball a lot. And, for his career, Heinicke is 15-9-1 to the UNDER in his 25 career NFL starts.
This profiles as a game between two teams that want to take the pressure off their quarterbacks and run the football. The Falcons burned us last week by giving up four touchdown passes to rookie Will Levis, inexplicably making that one of the highest-scoring games of the week. Levis actually wasn't as good as everyone thinks, he just hit basically every deep ball for a touchdown.
I don't think there's any way the Falcons let that happen again, they're going to make Hall earn every completion. We're right back on that Falcons UNDER train with NFL betting pick #5.
Washington Commanders at New England Patriots OVER 41 points
Here's how the Patriots totals work: when they score 20+ points, they hit every OVER (3-0). When they score fewer than 20 points, they hit every UNDER (0-5). The Washington Commanders, already a below-average defense, just traded half of their defensive line prior to the NFL Trade Deadline. That's not going to make them better.
The Patriots offensive line isn't very good, but they get a reprieve facing an extremely depleted Commanders front. The Commanders offensive line isn't great, either, but neither is the Patriots defensive line. With neither team really able to pressure the opposing quarterback, there should be plenty of time to throw.
I think that allows both Sam Howell and Mac Jones to play above their capabilities in what could be a surprisingly back-and-forth and more offensive game that people think. Thus, I'm on the OVER for NFL betting pick #6.