NFL Betting Picks For Week 8 Include A Pair Of AFC North Underdogs & A Shootout In Carolina

Week 7 was a tough week for everyone, except the sportsbooks. And, yes, everyone includes me. After going the first five weeks without a losing record, it's been rough sledding the past two. But, there's nothing to do but get back on the horse and make some NFL betting picks for Week 8.

Week 7 NFL Betting Picks (1-4)

New Orleans Saints (-1) over Jacksonville Jaguars ❌

Los Angeles Chargers (+5.5) over Kansas City Chiefs ❌

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 38 points ✅

Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos OVER 45 points ❌

Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 51.5 points ❌

It was a tough week, no doubt about it. We got off to a rough start with the Saints losing on Thursday Night Football and the Foster Moreau drop hit me in the soul. Once again, we hit the Falcons UNDER, which is quickly becoming a must-play this season.

As for the other three, we just flat-out got them wrong. I could quibble with a few things here and there, but the truth is that I examined my process after a poor week. Hopefully, we learned some lessons and get ourselves right in Week 8.

SEASON REPORT CARD (53% Overall)

Record in against-the-spread bets: 6-7 (46%)

Record in over/under bets: 10-7 (59%)

*You can track all my betting picks for the season here

Week 8 NFL Betting Picks

Lines are from PointsBet Sportsbook as of Tuesday afternoon.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars

Simply put: when Mike Tomlin is a home underdog, back the Pittsburgh Steelers. In his career, Tomlin is 15-5-4 against-the-spread as a home underdog. They're 2-1 this season in that spot with the only loss coming against the San Francisco 49ers. But, they've won the past two in similar situations -- and won them outright. Tomlin's Steelers are 15-9 straight-up as a home underdog since 2010.

Jacksonville is rolling, so there's that. They've won four straight games and are 5-2 ATS this season. However, this might be a bit of a lookahead spot for them. How does that make sense since their bye is next week? Exactly. Jacksonville is ready for a break. They spent two weeks in London, played on the road on Thursday Night Football and now travel to Pittsburgh.

When Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers are home underdogs (like they are in Week 8 against Jacksonville), they're a smart choice for an NFL betting pick. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)

We saw a bit of the fatigue against the Saints. The Jaguars jumped out to a big early lead before letting New Orleans creep back into the game. From a psychological standpoint, even if the Jags lose, they are going to have sole possession of the AFC South lead heading into the off week. Pittsburgh is much more rested, having had their bye week prior to the win on Sunday over the Rams. Plus, they are desperate to keep pace in the loaded AFC North.

I like Mike Tomlin and the Steelers to continue their trend of winning as home underdogs, so I'm taking them with NFL betting pick #1.

Cleveland Browns (+3) over Seattle Seahawks

I truly do not understand this line. It seems that books are docking the Browns because of Deshaun Watson's injury, but they're arguably better without him. Their defense is the best in the NFL. Yet, despite winning in Week 7, this line went from Seahawks -1.5 to the key number of Seahawks -3.

Geno Smith is quietly not playing great football. I say quietly because among QBs with at least 100 pass attempts, he has the fifth-highest percentage of turnover-worthy plays, according to Pro Football Focus. Here are the four that are worse: Gardner Minshew, Mac Jones, Desmond Ridder, Brock Purdy. Yuck. He's gotten lucky that some of his bad plays haven't turned into giveaways.

We saw Brock Purdy's bad decisions finally catch up to him on Monday Night Football against the Vikings. With Smith facing the league's best defense, expect the Browns to take advantage. Also, look for Cleveland's pass rush to create more chances for mistakes from Smith.

Last point: Seattle has one good win this season. They beat the Detroit Lions in Week 2. Their other three wins have come against the New York Giants, Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals (those teams have three wins combined).

This is a big step-up in competition, and I'll take the elite defense getting three points with NFL betting pick #2.

Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans UNDER 36.5 points

It may seem like I'm just blindly betting Atlanta Falcons UNDER, but ... well, there's no but. That's exactly what I'm doing. It works. This total is incredibly low, but these are two teams that just don't score any points. Tennessee has scored fewer than 17 points four times this season in six games. The Falcons have stayed under that number in four of their past five.

It's not just about the points on the board, either. Atlanta wants to run the ball as much as possible. So does Tennessee. Titans head coach Mike Vrabel and Falcons head coach Arthur Smith (former Tennessee offensive coordinator) are both very conservative coaches.

Vrabel lives by the "points are hard to come by" mantra that's great for UNDER betting. In fact, Tennessee is 10-4-1 to the UNDER in its past 15 games. And, since the start of 2021, Titans home games have gone UNDER at a 15-5 clip.

Mike Vrabel's style lends itself to UNDERS and we're backing that in Week 8 with an NFL betting pick. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

Arthur Smith lives by the "I'm going to pretend I'm coaching an NFL team in 1991" mantra. Also great for UNDER betting. To wit: the Falcons last SEVEN road contests have gone UNDER the total. In the past 16 games outside of Atlanta, the Falcons hit the UNDER in 12 of them.

Really the only thing that could make this game go OVER, in my estimation, is one of turnover-prone starting quarterbacks giving away points. That's definitely a possibility. But these two teams are combined 11-2 to the UNDER this season. We're confident that trend continues i nWeek 8 with NFL betting pick #3.

Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers OVER 43 points

I think this game has a chance to be a shootout. Seriously. Both teams want to showcase their top draft pick. Carolina really wants to prove that it didn't make a mistake drafting Bryce Young over CJ Stroud. That may sound dumb, but coaches are human. Frank Reich hand-picked Young over Stroud and people question that decision through just a few games in their respective careers.

On the other side, the Texans just need to keep doing what they're doing. DeMeco Ryans isn't afraid to let his rookie quarterback make mistakes and it shows in their offensive stats. They're in the top-third of the NFL in EPA/play.

Reich and Panthers had their bye in Week 7 and I expect them to come out with some juice for this one. Look for a well-scripted first few drives and Carolina to get on the board early. That will push Houston in go-for-it mode, too, leading to more points. This is my favorite NFL betting pick of Week 8.

Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals UNDER 44 points

This line is WAY too high. Most likely because the Ravens just scored 38 points at home against Detroit. Baltimore made a statement with that win, but they don't really need to pour on the points in this one. The goal here is to win a game they should win and escape healthy. That means a heavy dose of the Ravens rushing attack.

Expect Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens to run all over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 8. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)

Check out this stat: in the past five games where the Ravens were favored by at least 7 points, all of them have gone UNDER the total. Arizona was a fun team for a little while, but they've scored just 19 points combined in the past two weeks. Those games came against the Rams and Seahawks, whose defenses are not at the level of the Ravens (second in the NFL to the Browns in EPA/play).

From Week 2 through Week 5, Arizona saw four-straight games go OVER the total. That's helping to inflate this line because they're one of the few NFL teams that have more OVERS than UNDERS this season. But, both of their last two games have gone UNDER by at least 10 points. Cardinals totals are going to sink, but they haven't yet. Baltimore is 5-2 to the UNDER this season.

Don't expect any fireworks in this one and back the UNDER with NFL betting pick #5.