NFL Betting Picks For Week 6 From Analyst Hitting 64% This Season Includes Patriots Bounce-Back & Low-Scoring Affairs
Last year, I hit 62% of my NFL betting picks in the regular season and we're off to a great start this year. After posting back-to-back 2-2 records in both Week 1 and Week 2, I've posted three-straight winning weeks. Over the past three weeks, I've gone 10-4 in spread and over/under picks. I'll quickly recap Week 5 and then move on to the Week 6 NFL betting picks.
Week 5 NFL Betting Picks (3-1)
Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 48.5 points ✅
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) over Arizona Cardinals ✅
Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings UNDER 52.5 points ✅
Green Bay Packers (-1) over Las Vegas Raiders ❌
Another week of going undefeated on Sunday only to lose the Monday Night Football bet. Disappointing, but hard to be too upset about a 3-1 week. As far as the the Week NFL betting picks, I feel good about the process yet again.
There was a late sweat in the London game's UNDER, but only because of a 27-point fourth quarter that saw four touchdowns in the final eight minutes. Still, the analysis was sound as the teams combined for just 18 points in the first 52 minutes of the game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills had some fourth-quarter fireworks in London, but still managed to stay UNDER the total for an NFL betting pick win in Week 5. (Photo by Peter Nicholls/Getty Images)
The Bengals easily rolled the Cardinals, as expected. Chiefs-Vikings had some tense moments, but we'll take the win there. Jordan Love really gave away the Monday night game for us and the Packers. Ultimately, I think the Packers have the better roster, but Garoppolo didn't make as many big mistakes as Love. We'll take that L and move on.
SEASON REPORT CARD
Record in against-the-spread bets: 6-4 (60%)
Record in over/under bets: 8-3 (73%)
Week 6 NFL Betting Picks
Lines are from PointsBet Sportsbook as of Wednesday afternoon.
New England Patriots (+3) over Las Vegas Raiders
This is the perfect situation to apply "Dan Z's rule of NFL betting." I'm always looking to fade recency bias, and no game in Week 6 fits that description better than this one. On the Raiders side, they just won a Monday Night Football game in front of a huge audience. That makes them overrated heading into this week, despite not playing particularly well.
As mentioned in the Week 5 recap, the Raiders benefitted from terrible Jordan Love play. Could that happen this week with Mac Jones? Absolutely. But, I have a sneaking suspicion that the Patriots are going to throw everything at this game.
There are a few reasons for that. One is that Bill Belichick is under more scrutiny than ever. He needs this win. Plus, there's the added motivation of facing former Patriots QB Jimmy Garoppolo and former Patriots assistant coach Josh McDaniels.
I'll happily back Bill Belichick over Josh McDaniels with one of my NFL betting picks in Week 6. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)
Additionally, the Raiders played on Monday Night Football, giving the Patriots one extra day of rest and preparation. Belichick is already a FAR superior coach to McDaniels and he gets an extra day against his former assistant. That's a bigger deal than most people realize.
Back to the fade recency bias: no team is perhaps lower in the public's eyes right now than the New England Patriots. DraftKings reports that nearly 80% of the bets placed on their site are on the Las Vegas Raiders. The preseason line for this game was actually Patriots -1.5 and the lookahead line prior to Week 5 was Patriots +1.5.
So, we've got a far-superior head coach with an extra day of prep going against a quarterback and a head coach that he knows quite well while the public is heavily backing the favorite where the spread has moved over 4.5 points from the preseason line. Perfect spot to jump on the underdog for NFL betting pick #1.
Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons UNDER 42.5 points
Last year, I won consistently backing the New York Giants. The market never believed in them and we used that to our advantage. This year, I think that strategy might apply to the Atlanta Falcons UNDER. The Falcons are 3-2 while playing, essentially, a 1990s style of football. They run the ball A TON, even in situations that don't call for it.
Last week, even though Desmond Ridder attempted 37 passes, the Falcons still managed to post a nearly -8% Pass Rate Over Expected. I don't see how any Falcons total sits over 40 points at this point. Only one game of theirs this season eclipsed that total and it was the Packers matchup where Atlanta rallied from down 12 in the fourth quarter.
Find someone who loves you as much as Arthur Smith loves running the football and back the Atlanta Falcons/Washington Commanders UNDER in Week 6. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
The Falcons are 4-1 to the UNDER this season and now they face the Washington Commanders. The Commanders are 3-2 to the OVER but that's mostly due to their opponents. Washington has allowed at least 33 points in four-straight games (opponents averaging 36 points in that stretch). But, they haven't played against Atlanta. I don't think there's a shot in hell that Atlanta scores 30+ points.
Atlanta is a slight favorite here, and I expect this game to be closely contested between two bad teams with bad quarterbacks. That means a lot of run plays and a bleeding clock. A perfect recipe for an UNDER with NFL betting pick #2.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 46 points
Yes, I do love UNDERS. The public loves to bet OVERS, so there's often value in the UNDER. Overall this season, that has held true. UNDERS are hitting at 55%. A big reason that number isn't higher is that Week 2 saw an explosion of offense. If we look at just the past three weeks, UNDERS are 27-17 (61%).
In this game, Indianapolis turns to Gardner Minshew at quarterback. That's great new for the UNDER. Minshew is not a deep-ball threat, but he does generally complete a solid number of underneath passes. Plus, Jonathan Taylor is back and Zack Moss exploded last week. Expect the Colts to administer another run-heavy gameplan.
The return of Jonathan Taylor and the emergence of Zack Moss for the Indianapolis Colts means a run-heavy gameplan against Jacksonville and puts value on the UNDER for an NFL betting pick. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)
On the other side, Jacksonville returns from two weeks in London. That means they're going to be a little jet-lagged, which usually leads to sluggish starts. Travis Etienne devoured the Buffalo Bills defense last week, and there's no reason for the Jags not to lean on him again, especially as they get re-acclimated to playing stateside.
This is a big divisional games between two teams with strong running games. That means likely a close game where neither team wants to make mistakes. Plus, the Colts are playing their backup quarterback. Minshew only averages 6.6 air yards per pass attempt. This shapes up as a ball-control style game with an inflated total.
Yes, these teams went OVER in Week 1 but again, that was with Richardson under center and he tends to take a lot more risks. I believe that Week 1 game is driving this total number above where it belongs -- around 43. Take the value and bet another UNDER with NFL betting pick #3.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams OVER 48.5 points
Ignore everything I said about UNDERS, please! Yes, I like this OVER. The Arizona Cardinals were much more competitive in the first few games but their defense really isn't very good. We've seen that the past two weeks as the 49ers and Bengals put up huge numbers. The Rams can do the exact same thing. With Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles' offense looks a lot more like the one that won the Super Bowl in 2021 than last year's disaster.
Expect the Rams dynamic duo of Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford to put up a lot of points against the Arizona Cardinals weak defense in Week 6. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)
Stafford has attempted at least 33 passes in all five games this season. The Cardinals are without James Conner, which likely means leaning more on their own aerial attack. Especially in a game where the Rams are heavily favored and Arizona figures to play from behind.
Cooper Kupp is back and immediately returned to form. That's great news for the OVER, as the Rams figure to keep him and Puka Nacua very involved in the offense. Plus, they traded Van Jefferson, further cementing their confidence in those two plus Tutu Atwell.
Arizona is a sneaky OVER team this season, one of just three teams to have at least four games go OVER the total (Denver and Chicago are the others). Josh Dobbs has attempted 73 passes over the past two weeks, both games in which Arizona lost by multiple scores. Expect that to happen again and back the OVER with betting pick #4.