NFL Betting Picks For Week 3 Includes Lions Bounce-Back, While Titans Continue To Cover

Last year, I hit 62% of my NFL betting picks in the regular season. Unfortunately, we've started the season right at the .500 mark, going 2-2 in both Week 1 and Week 2. I know readers expect winners, so 50% isn't going to cut it. The good news is that we've learned a lot from the first two weeks of the NFL season. I'll quickly recap Week 2 and then move on to the Week 3 picks.

Week 2 NFL Betting Picks (2-2)

New York Giants (-5.5) over Arizona Cardinals ❌

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2) over Cleveland Browns ✅

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans OVER 39.5 points ✅

Washington Commanders at Denver Broncos UNDER 38.5 points ❌

There's not too much to say about the New York Giants pick. Last week, I explained that the process was solid but we didn't get the results. This week, we had some missteps. Clearly, the Giants Week 1 loss against the Cowboys showed more flaws than I originally assumed. They had a nice comeback victory, but no shot to cover. This Thursday night's game against the San Francisco 49ers is massive in showing exactly who the Giants are this season.

I'm disappointed in the Steelers offense through two weeks as I thought they would play much better. However, fading the Browns appears to be a good call. We'll take that win.

As far as the two totals, we were 100% correct about the Colts/Texans OVER and 100% wrong about the Broncos/Commanders UNDER. Both nearly hit the OVER in the first half and easily went over in the second. After incredibly low Week 1 scoring, Vegas lines adjusted. Offense came back in a big way during Week 2, hitting a high percentage of OVERs. It'll be interesting to see how the totals break down in Week 3.

Week 3 NFL Betting Picks

Lines are from PointsBet Sportsbook as of Thursday afternoon.

Detroit Lions (-3) over Atlanta Falcons

Prior to last week's games, the Lions were 5.5-point favorites. But, the Falcons moved to 2-0 and the Lions -- coming off their massive opening night win over the Chiefs -- lost to Seattle in overtime. So, oddsmakers adjusted this line down. But, I think that's a mistake.

The Lions are a much better team than Atlanta. The Falcons 2-0 record is misleading. They've defeated two quarterbacks who had a combined 2 NFL starts prior to their game against the Falcons. Arthur Smith’s offense is ridiculously slow and boring. Desmond Ridder is not a great NFL quarterback. Their defense benefitted from playing inexperienced quarterbacks.

Detroit, on the other hand, was due for a letdown. That victory over the Chiefs was honestly one of the biggest wins in recent franchise history. They were facing a desperate Seattle team that had just gotten embarrassed in Week 1. I'm not putting too much stock into that loss, which came in overtime. Had Detroit won that game, this line would be five or six.

The Detroit Lions are much better than the Atlanta Falcons and they're a good bet to cover just three points at home for NFL betting pick #1 in Week 3. (Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images)

Adjusting that down two points because of how the game ended is too much. Essentially, with the home-field advantage, this line says that Detroit and Atlanta are virtually equal teams on a neutral field. That's just not the case. Detroit's roster is far superior. Does anyone believe that Atlanta would have gone into Kansas City on opening night and beaten the Chiefs? Not a chance. Make the Lions your first NFL betting pick on Sunday.

Tennessee Titans (+3.5) over Cleveland Browns

I'm going to go slightly against what I just said. Prior to last week, the Titans were 4.5-point underdogs and the line adjusted following the Week 2 results. However, I personally believe the 4.5-point line was wrong in the first place. I've said it many times, but I just don't buy the Cleveland Browns. That was before Nick Chubb suffered a season-ending injury.

Now, they're relying even more on Deshaun Watson who really hasn't played at a high level in the NFL since the 2020 season. Who on the offense scares defenses? Amari Cooper? He's a good wide receiver, but not elite. After that, Cleveland doesn't have much.

Tennessee is massively underrated. They played poorly in a Week 1 loss to the Saints, but they beat a very good Los Angeles Chargers team in Week 2. Despite losing in Week 1, the Titans covered in that one-point loss. It's hard to envision a scenario where the Browns dominate the Titans to the tune of a touchdown victory. I'll happily take the 3.5 points for NFL betting pick #2.

The Tennessee Titans are 2-0 against-the-spread and expect them to move to 3-0 by backing them with an NFL betting pick over the Cleveland Browns. (Photo by Johnnie Izquierdo/Getty Images)

New York Jets at New England Patriots UNDER 36.5 points

Yes, we're going back to the "they can't make this line low enough" well despite the poor results with Denver and Washington last week. Zach Wilson has started four games in his career against the Patriots. In those games -- four losses -- the Jets average fewer than 10 points per game. New York's offense has produced just two touchdown in two games with Wilson this season -- and one of them was a slant that Garrett Wilson housed from 68 yards out.

On the other side, the Patriots are also averaging fewer than 20 points per game this season. Their defense held the Eagles and Dolphins -- two of the league's better offenses -- to 25 and 24 points, respectively. Those aren't exactly small numbers, but how much better are the Eagles and Dolphins on offense than the Jets?

The Patriots offense is a mess behind Mac Jones and now faces a Jets defense that's one of the league's best. The Cowboys scored 30 points last week but did so on the back of five field goals. Again, the Dallas offense is far superior to the Patriots.

Don't expect Mac Jones and Zach Wilson to put up many points this weekend, back the under in Patriots/Jets for NFL betting pick #3. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

Plus, there's a tropical storm that could produce heavy wind gusts in New England on Sunday. Two bad offenses playing in windy, rainy conditions against two good defenses? They really can't make this number low enough. Take UNDER the 36.5 points for NFL betting pick #3.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders UNDER 43 points

Pittsburgh scored 7 points in Week 1 and 26 points in Week 2. But of the 26 points scored against the Browns in Week 2, 14 of them came from the defense. The only other touchdown was a 71-yard George Pickens TD on a slant, similar to the Garrett Wilson touchdown for the Jets.

Simply put, the Steelers offense is not moving the ball at all so far this season. Neither are the Raiders. Las Vegas won in Week 1 despite scoring only 17 points and they managed just 10 points last week against Buffalo. Vegas has just 501 yards of total offense in two games combined. Pittsburgh is under 500 total yards.

This matchup reminds me a lot of the Week 1 game between the Broncos and Raiders where the two teams combined for 33 points. It's hard to envision a scenario where this game goes over 40 points, so we'll take the extra three points of value for NFL betting pick #4.

Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals OVER 44 points

This line is deflated because of Joe Burrow's calf injury. That makes sense. But I'm not as worried about that injury as others. Burrow is likely going to play. Doctors are going to shoot him up with some stuff to make that pain ease, at least for the three hours of the game. I think Cincinnati is going to gameplan around Burrow's limitations and have him get the ball out much quicker.

Expect the Cincinnati Bengals and quarterback Joe Burrow to score some points on Monday Night Football in Week 3. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Look for Ja'Marr Chase to break out in a big way against the Rams. Los Angeles traded away star corner Jalen Ramsey and they have no one to replace him. There's not a player in that secondary who can truly guard Chase -- or Tee Higgins, for that matter.

The Rams offense has been a revelation this season despite not having Cooper Kupp. Matthew Stafford looks healthy again after a tough 2022. They lost last week but scored 23 points against San Francisco's stout defense. The Rams are playing at the fastest pace in the NFL, averaging 78 plays per game through two weeks. Expect that to continue.

Sometimes in NFL betting you have to take some risks. That's why they call it "gambling." We're going to bet that Burrow's calf holds up on Monday night and these two offenses are going to put up plenty of points.