NFL Betting Picks For Week 2 Includes Giants & Steelers Bounce-Backs, Fireworks In Houston, & Low Scoring At Mile High
The NFL season is finally in full-swing! After one week, we have some information on teams. Although, don't get carried away. People love to overreact to Week 1, so we're going to use that to our advantage with out NFL betting picks in Week 2.
Last year, I hit 62% of my plays in the regular season. Unfortunately, we started the season right at the .500 mark, hitting two of our plays and missing the other two. I'll quickly recap Week 1 and then move on to the Week 2 picks.
Week 1 NFL Betting Picks (2-2)
Minnesota Vikings -6 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers ❌
Tennessee Titans +3 over New Orleans Saints ✅
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders UNDER 38 ✅
TJ Hockenson OVER 47.5 Receiving Yards ❌
I actually feel good about our Week 1 picks. The results didn't follow, but the big miss was obviously Minnesota. However, the Vikings lost the turnover battle 3-0 but lost the game by just three points. Turnovers are notoriously fluky, so the analysis wasn't completely wrong here.
Speaking of the Vikings, our other miss was on tight end TJ Hockenson's receiving yards prop. Again, though, the analysis was correct. I banked on the fact Hockenson would see a high volume of targets. Which, he did. Hockenson had eight catches.
T.J. Hockenson saw a lot of volume in Week 1, but just couldn't get the ball down the field. (Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)
However, those right receptions went for just 35 yards. It was the first time in the tight end's career where he caught at least eight passes and registered fewer than 65 yards. In fact, Hockenson posted the second-worst yards-per-catch figure of his career (games with at least two catches).
The Titans kept the game close despite not scoring a single touchdown and we can thank Mike Vrabel's game-management skills for a win there. The Cardinals/Commanders under only faced a mild threat because Sam Howell fumbled near his own goal line and the Cardinals scored a defensive touchdown. The offenses combined for fewer than 30 points.
I also correctly predicted that potential outcome: "The only concern here is that one of the quarterbacks makes a massive mistake — or two … or three – that leads to easy points for the opponent. Otherwise, this game should easily stay under 38 points." Thankfully, it was just the one massive mistake.
Week 2 NFL Betting Picks
Lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday afternoon.
New York Giants (-5.5) over Arizona Cardinals
As I said in the open, we're looking for overreaction in Week 1 to help us handicap Week 2 and make smart NFL betting picks. That starts with the New York Giants. The Dallas Cowboys completely embarrassed the Giants in front of a huge national audience on Sunday Night Football.
That embarrassment is deflating this line. The Arizona Cardinals stayed competitive against Washington, but lost despite scoring a defensive touchdown and Sam Howell playing a terrible game. Expect Daniel Jones to bounce-back in a big way. He's notoriously terrible in primetime games (1-10 career record in night games) but over .500 during the day (17-15-1).
Micah Parsons and the Dallas Cowboys defense tormented Daniel Jones and the New York Giants offense in Week 1, but the Arizona Cardinals present a much easier test and offer a great opportunity to back the Giants with a Week 2 NFL betting selection. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
And last year, Jones thrived against teams that didn't make the playoffs. The Giants went 8-1-1 in games against non-playoff teams. Breaking news: the Arizona Cardinals aren't making the playoffs this season.
Much of what happened on Sunday Night Football came because of Dallas' defense and terrible weather conditions. Neither of those are in play on Sunday. Plus, the Giants defense didn't play badly -- most of the points came thanks to Cowboys special teams and defense. Dak Prescott completed just 13-24 passes for 143 yards.
This line should be at least a touchdown, so we'll take the value here on a bounce-back performance from the G-Men for NFL betting pick #1 in Week 2.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2) over Cleveland Browns
Sensing a theme, here? The San Francisco 49ers absolutely annihilated the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kenny Pickett in Week 1. Some are speculating that an early hit to Pickett's head might have contributed to the performance. Whether it did or not, this is the team I expect the Steelers to be this season.
On the other side, the Browns completely stifled the Cincinnati Bengals who are the favorite to win the AFC North. Prior to the start of the season, the Steelers were favored by one point in this matchup. Week 1 results contributed to a three-point shift.
That's just too much overreaction to one week.
Like the Giants and Daniel Jones, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kenny Pickett are underrated after a poor Week 1 and face an overrated Cleveland Browns team after their dominating win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Take the Steelers at home on Monday Night Football with another NFL betting pick. (Photo by Mark Alberti/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Mike Tomlin and the Steelers are 7-3 against-the-spread vs. the Browns in their last 10 meetings. Plus, they're 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games against Cleveland.
I still think Pittsburgh is a better team overall than Cleveland. So, I'm taking the better team plus the points at home for my second NFL betting selection.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans OVER 39.5 points
Generally, when I see totals under 40 I either look to bet the under or I stay away entirely. Why? Totals under 40 usually signal books TRYING to get action on the over. But in this case, I think the line is just wrong.
Sure, people look at the Colts and Texans and think "these are two bad teams with rookie quarterbacks, they're not going to score a lot of points." Usually, that's true. Head coaches are notoriously risk-averse with rookie quarterbacks.
However, these teams showed in Week 1 that they're riding-or-dying with the rookie quarterbacks. And, that's a great sign. Yes, Houston only scored 9 points against Baltimore. But that was a really tough road test against a potential playoff team in CJ Stroud's first career start. Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans showed a willingness to let Stroud make his mistakes.
Stroud attempted 44 passes in his debut, so clearly Houston isn't afraid to let him sit back there and throw the ball. They trailed most of the game, so the negative same-script contributed to that number. So, here's a more important one: according to Ben Gretch, the Texans had "a +1.2% PROE (Pass Rate Over Expectation) ... their expected pass rate was actually very high, fourth-highest on the week at 73.8%, and the still went to the positive on that."
The Houston Texans showed a willingness to let rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud cook in Week 1; expect a similar story in Week 2. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
On the other side, we see a very similar story. The Colts also posted a positive PROE with their rookie quarterback, Anthony Richardson, who attempted 39 passes of his own. Plus, head coach Shane Steichen brought his aggressive style from Philly right to Indianapolis, pushing the issue on fourth down and giving his rookie QB the opportunity to make big plays.
In addition, we have two rookie quarterbacks prone to potential mistakes. As I discussed last week in relation to Commanders/Cardinals, that can be very, very good for adding easy points to the scoreboard.
Add it all up and this line is too low. Bank on the Texans and Colts to combine for at least 40 points for NFL betting pick #3.
Washington Commanders at Denver Broncos UNDER 38.5 points
OK, back to my usual taking the under with low totals. Books want to take action on this Over, but that's going to be tough to do. We won in Week 1 by betting against Sam Howell and the Commanders offense, let's do it again!
Both of these teams boast strong defenses and poor offenses. That's the perfect recipe for an under. Although people expected Sean Payton to completely revamp the Denver Broncos offense, I never bought into that. And I still don't. They looked nearly identical to last season.
Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine looked like the best players on Denver's offense and I expect a heavy dose of the run game in this one. Similarly, Sam Howell did not look good and the Commanders ran the ball almost 30 times.
Sam Howell and the Washington Commanders offense struggled against the Arizona Cardinals and can expect an even stiffer test against the Denver Broncos, making the under a great play for a Week 2 NFL betting pick. (Photo by Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images)
The Broncos played at a snail's pace in Week 1, running fewer than 60 offensive plays. And they gained just 260 total yards. The Commanders ran a few more plays (65) but managed to gain fewer yards (248).
"But, Dan, I thought we shouldn't overreact to Week 1?" You are correct, astute reader. Except, we're not overreacting to Week 1. In fact, we're properly reacting to two teams who looked in Week 1 very similarly to how they looked last season. Expecting that to change in Week 2 would actually be foolish.
Since I don't like to be foolish, I'm taking the under in this one as NFL betting pick #4 for Week 2.