NFL Betting Picks For Week 1 From Analyst Who Hit 62% Last Regular Season

After a very successful first season for OutKick, I'm back again this season trying to replicate an incredible run with NFL betting picks. Last year, I hit 62% of my plays in the regular season. The goal is to kickoff the season the right way and give out some winners for Week 1.

First and foremost, Week 1 is a very difficult slate to handicap. We have very limited information. However, that doesn't mean there isn't value out there. Those who followed along last year know that my tagline is to "fade what you saw most recently."

That strategy works well in the NFL betting space, where the public tends to overreact to every game. Now, there are some specific times when you have to be savvy enough to recognize something sustainable. Occasionally, the betting public under-reacts to something from the previous week.

But, we'll get into all of that throughout the season. For now, the strategy is simple: we want to go directly against public perception heading into this NFL season.

Lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday afternoon.

Week 1 NFL Betting Picks

Minnesota Vikings (-6) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Minnesota Vikings are an extremely popular team to fade right now. They won 13 games last season, easily capturing the NFC North crown. But, the New York Giants upset them in the Wild Card round and everyone expects massive regression. To wit: their over/under win total this season is just 8.5. The betting market sees them as at least four wins worse than last season. I don't buy that.

In Week 1, they face a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that went 8-9 last season with Tom Brady. Now, they turn the offense over to Baker Mayfield. That's quite a downgrade. The Minnesota Vikings didn't get worse this offseason, but everyone simply believes they cannot replicate last year.

Fading Baker Mayfield is generally a sound NFL betting strategy and we're going to use it in Week 1 against the Vikings. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

So, this line is puzzling. The Vikings should be at least a touchdown favorite over the Bucs. With the home-field advantage baked into the line, Vegas puts Minnesota at only about three points better than Tampa Bay. That's just not enough.

Fading Baker Mayfield is a strategy that has paid off massively for bettors. Over the past two seasons, Mayfield has started 26 games for three different teams. Those teams are 8-16 against-the-spread. Kirk Cousins, meanwhile, is exactly .500 ATS in his career (70-70-2).

The Bucs are a team trying to rebuild after losing Brady and learning a new offense under a new quarterback. The Vikings are a 13-win team from last season that keeps most of its roster intact. Eat the points and take Minnesota. And consider the Vikings as a top option in Survivor pools, as well.

Tennessee Titans (+3) over New Orleans Saints

This is another perfect example of a team that I believe the market is too low on: the Tennessee Titans. Thanks to injuries to quarterback Ryan Tannehill, poor offensive line play, and missing AJ Brown, Tennessee failed to win the AFC South for the first time in three seasons. But they still won seven games.

And, the team addressed all of those issues in the offseason. The Titans had a middle-of-the-pack defense that projects to be much better this season. They boast one of the best defensive lines in the NFL, anchored by Simmons and newly-signed Arden Key.

Meanwhile, Vegas -- and the public -- believes the Saints are much better than last season. Their season win total over/under is 9.5 after a seven-win season.

The thought is that Derek Carr massively upgrades their quarterback room over Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton. That might be true, but it's not going to happen right away in Week 1. Especially since New Orleans sorely lacks offensive weapons outside of Chris Olave until Alvin Kamara returns in Week 4.

Expect a bounce-back season from Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans and that starts with a Week 1 game against the New Orleans Saints. (Photo by Silas Walker/Getty Images)

Plus, Mike Vrabel is a far better NFL head coach than Dennis Allen. And, I think Ryan Tannehill is a better quarterback than Derek Carr. So, give me the points and the better head coach/quarterback duo in Week 1 for NFL betting pick #2.

Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders UNDER 38 points

I'm not sure it's possible to set this line low enough. The Cardinals are going to start either Josh Dobbs or Clayton Tune at quarterback. Sam Howell is making just his second NFL start. For what it's worth, I do think Howell is going to be solid and the Commanders are better than most realize.

But I also believe that they are going to roll the Cardinals and plan to heavily lean on their running game and keep Howell from making big mistakes. Josh Dobbs started two games last year, the first starts of his NFL career. The Titans scored 13 points and 16 points in those contests. This Cardinals team is much worse than that Tennessee team.

It's hard to see the Cardinals putting up more than 13 points in this game, which means Washington has to score 25 just to push the total. I don't think they will, nor will they need to, do that. Both teams project to try and run the ball to shorten the game with inexperienced quarterbacks.

The only concern here is that one of the quarterbacks makes a massive mistake -- or two ... or three --that leads to easy points for the opponent. Otherwise, this game should easily stay under 38 points.

TJ Hockenson OVER 47.5 Receiving Yards

The Minnesota Vikings gave TJ Hockenson the richest contract in NFL history for a tight end. They plan to use him. A lot. Plus, they let Adam Thielen walk in the offseason and he was Kirk Cousins' primary security blanket. But that is a role that Hockenson snatched towards the end of last season.

We're taking Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson to go over his receiving yards total in Week 1 as one of our four NFL betting picks. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)

Look at the targets Hockenson received in the team's Wild Card round loss to the Giants: 11. In the most important game of the season, Cousins looked to Hockenson 11 times. If you throw out Week 18 (because the Vikings had clinched and their starters didn't play the entire game), Hockenson averaged 11 targets over the final five games. He went over 47.5 receiving yards in all but one of those.

On the other side, Tampa Bay allowed tight ends to average over 50 yards receiving per game. And that's all tight ends, not just ones of Hockenson's caliber. That includes the playoff loss against the Cowboys where Dalton Schultz caught seven passes for 95 yards.

Side note: as of publishing, receiving props for the Los Angeles Rams are not posted because of Cooper Kupp's uncertain status. But Tyler Higbee figures to see a ton of work against the Seattle Seahawks, who just do not defend tight ends at all. I'll probably add an over on Higbee once the number is available.