Don't Sleep On The Jacksonville Jaguars, Trevor Lawrence In 2024
NFL 2024 is around the corner with all 32 teams reporting for training camp in mid-to-late July. Last season, I hit 61% of my Circa Million V and NFL playoff sides and totals. To prepare for the upcoming year, I'll preview every team, give out my favorite season-long bet, and record projections for each. These are mostly ‘picks’ but I'll tell you which bets are ‘in pocket’. The Jacksonville Jaguars are the second AFC South team I'm previewing after the 2023 division champion Houston Texans.
Heading into 2023, Jacksonville was +3000 to win the Super Bowl and -155 to win the AFC South, making them one of the biggest divisional preseason favorites. In 2022, under first-year head coach Doug Pederson, the Jaguars won the AFC South and rallied back from a 27-point deficit to beat the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC Wild Card round.
Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence is pressured by Kansas City Chiefs DT Chris Jones in Week 2 last year at EverBank Stadium. (Bob Self/Florida Times-Union/USA TODAY NETWORK)
Initially, Jacksonville was justifying the market's preseason hype. The Jaguars were 8-3 and those losses were to the 2023 Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, NFC-winning San Francisco 49ers, and AFC South champion Houston Texans. Then it all came unglued. They lost five of their six remaining games in 2023, had nothing to play for in Week 18, and finished 9-8.
Pro Bowl QB Trevor Lawrence didn't improve last season as many, myself included, expected. Virtually all of his numbers dipped last year, such as touchdowns, interceptions, and QB Rating. Yet, I'm not selling a penny of my stock in Lawrence. I'm drawing a line through 2023 because of nagging injuries, bad play from his skill-position players, and Jacksonville's front office resting on its laurels last offseason.
Jacksonville Jaguars 2024: By The Odds
Courtesy of DraftKings at noon ET Tuesday, July 23.
- Super Bowl: +5000
- Conference: +2500
- Division: +275
- Playoffs: Yes (+130) | No (-155)
- 8.5 Wins: Over (-110) | Under (-110)
The Jaguars "ran it back" last year, ranking 30th in free agency spending, per Spotrac. They learned from their mistake, leading the NFL in spending this offseason. Jacksonville extended Lawrence and two-time Pro Bowl pass rusher Josh Hines-Allen with huge deals. Then the Jaguars potentially added three offensive starters (WR Gabe Davis, LG Ezra Cleveland, and C Mitch Morse) and three defensive starters (DT Arik Armstead, CB Ronald Darby, and S Darnell Savage).
Jacksonville's interior offensive line didn't get any push last year and the Jaguars were 30th in yards per rush. So, at least the Cleveland and Morse additions try to address that need. Davis is a big-play threat who can stretch opposing defenses. Jacksonville gave Lawrence another weapon by taking WR Brian Thomas Jr. with the No. 23 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He already has reliable pass catchers with slot WR Christian Kirk and TE Evan Engram.
However, my biggest disagreement with the market about the Jaguars is on defense. When DraftKings released the lines for every 2024 regular season game, I used the spreads and totals to see the market's ranking for every offense and defense. Jacksonville is projected to have the 24th-best defense. Well, I project the Jaguars to have a top-10 defensive ceiling and league-average floor.
Jacksonville Jaguars DT Roy Robertson-Harris and pass rushers Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker celebrate vs. the Atlanta Falcons at Wembley Stadium in London. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
Pederson added former New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen to his staff for the same role. New Orleans was fifth in yards allowed in 2022 and Atlanta was sixth in early-down defensive success rate in 2023 under Nielsen. He was let go by the Falcons this offseason because new head coach Raheem Morris hired his own staff. But, Atlanta's loss is Jacksonville's gain.
READ: Jaguars Continue Taking A Very Different Approach To Mandatory Minicamp
More importantly, Jacksonville's front seven is stacked. Jaguars LBs Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd were graded 18th and 21st among qualified linebackers by Pro Football Focus last season. Hines-Allen had a career-best 17.5 sacks last year and Armstead will eat up blocks. If pass rusher Travon Walker, who's underwhelmed as the No. 1 pick in 2022, takes a step forward, Jacksonville will have a top-10 defense, regardless of the secondary.
Ultimately, I have the Jaguars going 11-6 and winning the AFC South in 2024. Their offseason investments will pay off and Lawrence will play like a top-10 quarterback again. If they don't, Pederson could get fired and Jacksonville will get dogged for extending Lawrence. I'm not betting the Jaguars to win their division because the AFC South is low-key tough, and I only bet futures at 10-to-1 or higher.
‘Best Bet’ For the 2024 Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence to have 4,000+ Regular Season Pass Yards (+165) at DraftKings
Lawrence threw for 4,016 yards last season in a "disappointing year" while missing one game. In his first season under Pederson, Lawrence had 4,113 passing yards. Since the Jaguars won't put away this division by Week 18, they'll need him to play in every game in 2024. Barring injury, Lawrence will improve year over year because he has better players around him.
Finally, Jacksonville had a first-place schedule in 2023 and several tough defenses it won't face this year, like the Chiefs, 49ers, Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills. The Jaguars play six games this year against teams in the bottom 10 of opponent's QB Rating last season.
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