NFC North 2023 Gambling Lookahead: Best Bets For All 4 Teams
There was a changing of the guard in the NFC North last season. After threepeating the NFC North in coach Matt LaFleur's 1st three years on the job, the Green Bay Packers were 8-9 last year and missed the NFC playoffs.
Former Packers QB Aaron Rodgers got his wish and was traded to the New York Jets this offseason. First-year Minnesota Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell led his team to a 13-4 record and en route to a division crown.
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson and QB Kirk Cousins warm up before the game vs. the Chicago Bears at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. (Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports)
Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins had eight game-winning drives and eight 4th-quarter comebacks. Vikings WR Justin Jefferson bailed Cousins and the offense out all season. Jefferson won 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year.
However, they were clearly worse than their record indicates and won an incredible 11 one-score games. Minnesota was 26th in net yards per play (YPP) and got eliminated in the NFC wild card game by the New York Giants.
LISTEN: Dan Zaksheske and Geoff Clark Break Down The AFC and NFC North On The Latest Episode of “OutKick Bets”
The Detroit Lions began and ended 2022 as a sleeper team in the NFC North. Many thought the Lions could sneak into the NFC playoffs during the 2022 preseason. They started 1-6 then rallied to enter playoff contention.
But, an early-season loss to the Seattle Seahawks cost Detroit dearly. The Lions had nothing to play for but knocked off the Packers on Sunday Night Football in Week 18 to finish 9-8, costing Green Bay an NFC playoff berth.
Lions QB Jared Goff throws a pass vs. the Packers at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
Last season was clearly a rebuilding year for the Chicago Bears under 1st-year coach Matt Eberflus. The Bears finished 3-14, losing their final 10 games last season and got the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.
Chicago traded the 1st pick to the Carolina Panthers for WR D.J. Moore to give 3rd-year QB Justin Fields some help. But, the Bears hope their defensive signees make an impact because Chicago had the NFL's worst defense with a bullet in 2022.
NFC North 2023 gambling walk through
Minnesota Vikings
NFL internet handicappers are climbing over themselves to fade the Vikings in 2023. Typically, teams that win a bunch of one-score games have a worse record the following season.
Furthermore, two NFC North teams clearly got better this offseason (Lions and Bears). The Packers are a bit of an unknown with new QB Jordan Love taking over their offense.
That said, I'm not one of the people eager to fade the Vikings. Between Jefferson, Minnesota TE T.J. Hockenson, and 2023 first-round draft pick, WR Jordan Addison, Cousins has weapons to work with.
Former USC WR Jordan Addison with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected by the Vikings in the 1st round of the 2023 NFL Draft. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
The Vikings had a below-average defense in 2023. They got rid of six defensive starters and brought in four different ones. But, Minnesota hired defensive coordinator Brian Flores who's a wizard.
The Miami Dolphins' defense played above their talent when Flores was their coach from 2019-21. Flores helped design the defense that shutdown the LA Rams in the New England Patriots' 13-3 win in Super Bowl 2019.
Offseason defensive departures for the Vikings include DT Dalvin Tomlinson, edge Za'Darius Smith, LB Eric Kendricks, and CB Patrick Peterson. Flores has his work cut out for him with this lackluster defensive personnel.
Minnesota's odds
None of Minnesota's season-long futures appeal to me. The Vikings' 8.5-win total is fair. Their 13 wins last year was flukey. But, Minnesota's got good injury-luck and record in one-score games is accounted for by the sportsbooks.
If anything, I lean toward UNDER 8.5 (-110) wins for the Vikings. Cousins is an average NFL QB, Minnesota was below-average in the trenches last season and the Vikings' schedule is harder in 2023.
Vikings QB Kirk Cousins passes the ball vs. the New York Giants of the 2023 NFC wild card game at U.S. Bank Stadium. (Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports)
I'm setting my sights on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 at the Vikings in Week 1. The Bucs have Pro Bowl talent at every position except for QB. From a talent perspective, Minnesota isn't a touchdown better than Tampa.
'Unlimited bankroll' bet for the 2023 Vikings
Let me be clear: These "unlimited bankroll" bets are only recommendations. My "best bets" for the 2023 NFC North are labeled as such below.
But, since only 19 NFL running backs to rush for more than 900 yards last season, I'd BET UNDER 900.5 RUSHING YARDS for ALEXANDER MATTISON (-125) at DraftKings.
Vikings RB Alexander Mattison carries the ball vs. the Bears at Soldier Field in Chicago. (Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
First of all, Mattison is not a top-20 NFL running back. He averaged just 3.7 and 3.8 yards per rush in each of the past two seasons. Mattison's 1.5 yards after contact per rush in 2022 would be tied for 35th out of 46 ball carriers.
Because of their defense, the Vikings could be in a lot of shootouts this year. Most teams go with "running back by committee" approach so Mattison probably won't be used as a bell cow.
Detroit Lions
The Lions being favorites in the NFC North just doesn't feel right. Detroit hasn't won its division since 1994 when the Lions played in the "NFC Central" with four other teams.
They were too reckless in the 2023 NFL Draft consider how bad their defense was in 2022. Detroit's defense ranked 28th in schedule-adjusted efficiency (DVOA) last season, per Football Outsiders.
The Lions drafted LB Jack Campbell in the 1st round. But, linebacker is a devalued position in football. Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson could've used some help on the defensive line instead.
Former Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is sacked by Lions pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson. (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Detroit signed three defensive backs this offseason: Cameron Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Who knows if those defensive acquisitions will pan out for the Lions.
They selected RB Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th pick and replaced both RBs from last year's team. The ground game was the last thing the Lions needed to upgrade this offseason. Plus, their offensive line is a top-10 unit barring cluster-injuries.
Detroit's odds
There is a world where the Lions justify the preseason hype. Detroit QB Jared Goff needs to have another season like he did last year. Goff ranked 9th in expected points added per play (EPA) + completion rate over expectation (CPOE) in 2022.
Detroit QB Jared Goff throws a pass vs. the Packers at Lambeau Field. (Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
Ultimately, I cannot get there with the Lions. They are favorites in 11 games next season and 5th in both points per game and YPP. So I get it. But, I have to "see it to believe it" with Detroit and the +140 odds aren't fat enough.
'Unlimited bankroll' bet for the 2023 Lions
Pro Football Focus (PFF) graded Detroit WR Amon-Ra St. Brown 2nd out of 113 wideouts last year. St. Brown caught 106 balls for 1,161 yards in 2022 and ranked 8th in yards per route run, according to PFF.
The Lions face seven teams in the bottom-10 of pass defense DVOA from last year. They only have one game outdoors in the winter next season. St. Brown is a hard guy to game-plan for since he lines up out wide and in the slot for the Lions.
Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown runs with the ball against the Vikings at Ford Field in Detroit. (Mike Mulholland/Getty Images)
Detroit WR Jameson Williams will miss the 1st six games of the year to serve a suspension for gambling. This should equal more targets for St. Brown and he led the Lions in targets over the past two seasons.
OVER 1050.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115) for Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is a good look if you're into season-long player props.
Green Bay Packers
It would be kind of crazy if the Packers drafted a 3rd straight franchise QB. But, Rodgers going to NYJ could be "addition by subtraction". He mailed it in last year and new Packers QB Jordan Love looked good when he played.
Per NFL handicapper Clevta's 2023 season preview, the Packers face the easiest schedule of opposing pass defenses this season. LaFleur has the best 4th-down decision-making, per RBSDM.com, and the Packers were 8th early-down pass rate.
Green Bay QB Jordan Love hands the ball off to RB Aaron Jones during Packers Family Night at Lambeau Field. (Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
Green Bay's defense sucked last year. The Packers were 28th in YPP allowed and 27th in defensive EPA/play. However, they've spent a lot of draft capital on defense recently and have good players in premium positions (cornerback and pass rusher).
Green Bay's odds
As long as Love can play within a system, he should be alright. Packers WR Christian Watson ranked 24th in 2022 by PFF. They have a bunch of young skill-position players such as WRs Romeo Dobbs and Jayden Reed and rookie TE Luke Musgrave.
Plus, Green Bay's offensive line and ground game has top-10 potential. Packers RB Aaron Jones is one of my sleepers to win 2023 NFL Offensive Player of the Year at +10000.
PFF graded Jones as the 8th-best RB (out of 60 RBs) last season. Jones is a dual-threat RB who ran for 1,121 yards in 2022 on 5.3 yards per rush. He added 59 catches for 395 receiving yards with seven total TDs.
Best bet(s) for the 2023 Packers
For the price, I like the PACKERS TO GO 5-0 (+2200) at DraftKings. Their 1st five games are the Bears (road), Atlanta Falcons (road), New Orleans Saints (home), Lions (home), and Las Vegas Raiders (road).
Packers coach Matt LaFleur high-fives a fan as he rides a bicycle to practice at Lambeau Field. (Tork Mason/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin)
Four of those teams have awful defenses (Bears, Falcons, Lions, and Raiders). The other, NOLA, has a coaching disadvantage and Lambeau Field is one of the best home-field edges in the NFL.
Green Bay has the most talented roster on both sides of the ball in the division. Because of which the PACKERS at +400 are my pick TO WIN THE NFC NORTH. Their divisional odds opened at +500 earlier this offseason and Green Bay is taking sharp action.
Chicago Bears
There are several pro-Chicago arguments that I'm going to ignore. First, the Bears go from the 28th-easiest strength of schedule in 2022 to the 5th-easiest this season, per Warren Sharp. That's the biggest positive year over year change.
Chicago is tied with the Jets for the most net rest days this season, according to Sharp. Furthermore, the Bears were 1-7 in one-score games last year. Again, that usually flips from one season to the next.
Bears QB Justin Fields walks off the field after a loss to the Buffalo Bills at Soldier Field. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Also, they have an insane rushing attack. Chicago QB Justin Fields ran for 1,000+ yards in 2022. Bears RB Khalil Herbert led the NFL last year in rushing yards over expectation per attempt, per Next Gen Stats.
Chicago's odds
The Bears finished 3-14 last year vs. a 6.5-win total. I don't see how they got five wins better this offseason. Chicago's defense was dead-last in DVOA, defensive EPA/play and sacks and 31st in YPP allowed.
After they traded away former LB Roquan Smith and DE Robert Quinn last year, the Bears' defense fell off a cliff. The Bears signed LBs Tremaine Edmunds to a 4-year, $72 million deal and T.J. Edwards to a 3-year, $18 million deal this offseason.
Why wouldn't Chicago pay Smith who's a 3-time NFL All-Pro instead? This tells me 2nd-year Bears GM Ryan Poles has a different plan than his predecessor who originally drafted Fields.
Bears QB Justin Fields throws a pass against the Lions at Ford Field. (Mike Mulholland/Getty Images)
Meaning, this is a prove-it year for Fields. If the Bears get a top-three pick in the draft, they are drafting a QB. Fields hasn't shown enough arm talent for me to confidently back the Bears this season.
His backups, QBs Nathan Peterman and P.J. Walker, had better passing grades last year. Fields was 24th in EPA/play + CPOE and he threw for more than 200 yards once in 2022.
Chicago's offensive line couldn't block for Fields because he was a hot-mess in the pocket. With no changes to the coaching staff and few upgrades to the skill-positions, I'm not confident Fields improves as a passer.
'Unlimited bankroll' bet for the 2023 Bears
Either Chicago's 7.5 REGULAR WIN TOTAL (+110) or 6.5 ALTERNATE WIN TOTAL (+185) are the only way I'd look. The Bears are the favorite at DraftKings to be the NFL's "most improved team" in 2023 and Fields has the 9th-best odds to win NFL MVP.
However, I'm much cooler on the Bears than the market. They are my lowest power-rated team in the NFC North and favored in just six games this season. The average record for last-place teams in 2022 was 5.5-11.5.