Bet On Boring In New Orleans Saints At Kansas City Chiefs On Monday In Week 5

Week 5 in the NFL concludes with the New Orleans Saints (2-2) visiting the Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) for Monday Night Football. As of Monday at 1:30 p.m. ET, the Chiefs are -5 to -5.5 favorites and the total is 43. New Orleans has cooled off from its hot start whereas Kansas City keeps pulling wins out of it's a**. 

With that in mind, NOLA's offense might still be overrated after crushing the Carolina Panthers 47-10 in Week 1 and the Dallas Cowboys 44-19 in Week 2. KC has scored fewer points in every game this season, with its latest output being 17 points. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has a mediocre 89.7 QB Rating and has thrown an interception in every game. 

New Orleans Saints QB Derek Carr celebrates  a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. (Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images)

The market is buying into the Under for this game, and the total is down from a 44.5-point opener. Since the public likes to bet Overs and primetime games get the most public action, Unders are usually a sharp bet. Granted, the Over is 5-1 on Monday Night Football so far this season. Yet, several of those games featured high-octane offenses vs. bad defenses. 

However, the opposite is true Monday. New Orleans is missing two offensive line starters, including C Erik McCoy, the highest-graded center, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). That's a massive loss here because Chiefs All-Pro DT Chris Jones is one of the best interior pass rushers in the NFL. 

Furthermore, the Saints are 19th in yards per play allowed and seventh in points per play while the Chiefs are 14th in yards per play allowed and eighth in points per play. I.e., these teams play "bend don't break" defenses, which leads to a lot of running clock. NOLA leads the NFL in red-zone scoring rate allowed and KC is seventh. 

Kansas City Chiefs DT Chris Jones sacks Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert at SoFi Stadium. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images)

Also, the Saints have the highest running rate in the league and the Chiefs are missing two wide receivers, Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown, and RB Isiah Pacheco. So, Kansas City is missing a few game-breakers and will hand the ball off to backup RBs Kareem Hunt and Carson Steele.

Finally, the Chiefs have a strength-on-weakness edge in interior blocking. Their two guards (Trey Smith and Joe Thuney) and center (Creed Humphrey) are Pro Bowl-caliber offensive linemen. Saints defensive tackles Nathan Shepherd and Bryan Bresee grade at a below-replacement level, according to PFF. 

Best Bet: UNDER 43 (-110) in Saints-Chiefs

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FanDuel 5-Leg ‘Same Game Parlay’ (+1223) 

• UNDER 43.5 alternate points for the game
• Saints WR Rashid Shaheed UNDER 48.5 receiving yards
• Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes OVER 18.5 rushing yards
• Chiefs TE Travis Kelce with 6+ receptions
• Saints QB Derek Carr UNDER 209.5 passing yards

These usually aren't my thing, but I'm switching it up, and I'll bet a cup of coffee on this longshot. The best way to go about ‘Same Game Parlays’ (SGPs) is to create a story about how this game will play out and find bets to fit that narrative. 

For instance, Kansas City has an elite secondary and Shaheed is New Orleans' No. 2 wide receiver. Pinnacle Sportsbook lists Shaheed's receiving prop at 45.5 yards. Pinnacle is a "market-making" shop, so I trust Pinnacle has a sharper number than FanDuel. Plus, three yards is a massive difference in player props. 

Because Mahomes is missing some weapons, he'll be more willing to use his legs. Mahomes has run the ball 15 times over his last three games. Albeit, the efficiency hasn't been there but, the Saints have a poor rush defense. He's rushed for 19+ yards in 61 of his 119 career starts for both the regular season and playoffs. 

"Over Kansas City TE Travis Kelce six catches" is one of the legs in my 'same game parlay' for the Saints vs. Chiefs on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 5. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images)

Kelce's target volume should increase with KC's aforementioned injuries. Last week, Kelce had season highs in targets (9), receptions (7), and receiving yards (89). The film guys pointed out that Kelce was getting Rice's route designs in Week 4. Hence, I could see Kelce getting involved in the screen game Monday. 

Lastly, Carr is averaging 206.0 passing yards per game this season and has thrown for 210+ yards in two games. Again, in a perfect world, the Saints would prefer to run the ball. Since I have the Chiefs winning a close one, New Orleans won't ask Carr to attempt 30+ passes. 

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