Can The 2024 New Orleans Saints Overcome A 'Derek Carr, Dennis Allen' Problem?

NFL 2024 is around the corner with preseason starting August 1. Last year, I hit 61% of my Circa Million V and NFL playoff sides and totals. I'll preview every team to prepare for the upcoming year, give out my favorite season-long bet, and record projections for each. These are mostly ‘picks’ but I'll tell you which bets are ‘in pocket’. I've broken down the AFC South, NFC South-favorite Atlanta Falcons, and reigning division champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Let's discuss the New Orleans Saints. 

Surely, if the Saints don't make the playoffs, third-year head coach Dennis Allen is fired, right? New Orleans hasn't made the playoffs in Allen's first two seasons. He already threw former offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael under the bus, firing him at the end of 2023. Allen is the next to go, right? 

Saints 77-year-old owner Gayle Benson inherited the team from her late husband, Tom, and I'm not sure how engaged Gayle is with the football operations. She will probably leave Allen's future up to 22-year general manager Mickey Loomis, the architect of NOLA's 2009 Super Bowl-winning team. 

New Orleans Saints head coach Dennis Allen, owner Gayle Benson, QB Derek Carr, and GM Mickey Loomis at a press conference after signing Carr in 2024. (Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports)

But, if Benson wants changes, Loomis will probably throw Allen under the bus. That's how things work in the NFL. With or without Loomis running things, changes are needed in New Orleans. Last season, the Saints had the oldest roster in the NFL, per the 2024 FTN Football Almanac, and they are essentially "running it back" this year. 

Also, QB Derek Carr isn't good enough to overcome even mediocre coaching, let alone bad coaching. Allen is 24-46 straight up (SU) and 27-4-1 against the spread (ATS) in his five years as a head coach. First with the Oakland Raiders in 2012-14, where he was fired after Week 4 in the middle of his third year, and now with the Saints.

New Orleans Saints 2024 Odds

Courtesy of FanDuel at 2:30 p.m. ET Sunday, August 4. 

• Super Bowl: +10000
• Conference: +4000
• Division: +380
• Playoffs: Yes (+176) | No (-225)
• 7.5 Wins: Over (-130) | Under (+106)

On paper, the Saints were the unluckiest team in the NFL last year. They had a 10.5 expected win total but only won nine games. New Orleans was 3-6 in one-score games for which Carr gets 75% of the blame. Carr had no fourth-quarter comebacks and just one game-winning drive in 2023. The Saints beat the 6-11 Tennessee Titans 16-15 in Week 1 and the Carolina Panthers 20-17 in Week 2. 

Based on how bad the Titans and Panthers were last season, those shouldn’t have been "close wins" for New Orleans. Plus, its 10.5 expected wins are misleading because it’s based on scoring differential. NOLA shutout the New England Patriots 34-0, smacked the Panthers 28-6, drubbed the Daniel Jones-less New York Giants 24-6, and dog-walked the down-and-out Atlanta Falcons 48-17 in Week 18. 

Carolina was the worst team in the NFL last year and infamously traded the No. 1 overall pick to the Chicago Bears for the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. New England got rid of Bill Belichick and drafted a new quarterback with the third pick. NYG is a disaster and had the sixth pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Atlanta fired its head coach, signed QB Kirk Cousins, and drafted rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 pick. 

My point is the Saints destroyed bad teams and their winning nine games had more to do with their weak competition than anything New Orleans was doing right. The Saints were 1-4 SU and ATS vs. winning teams. Two of those games were the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who only made the playoffs because someone from the NFC South had to.

New Orleans Saints QB Derek Carr hands the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in Florida. (Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports)

Another "winning team" New Orleans played was the Jacksonville Jaguars, who missed the postseason. Another was against the Vikings, who didn’t make the playoffs either and ended up with a losing record. Plus, QB Joshua Dobbs made his first start for Minnesota in that game after replacing an injured Cousins. 

Barring injury, NOLA’s non-division schedule will be tougher in 2024. This includes six opponents outside the division who made the playoffs last season, such as the Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, and Green Bay Packers. Of course, the Saints are underdogs for all of those games. 

Given how low I have Allen power-rated as a coach and Carr as a quarterback, I’m counting these games as losses for New Orleans. The Saints will go .500, or have a losing record, in division games. Tampa is as good as NOLA, and the Falcons and Panthers improved this offseason. Let’s say the Saints lose one of two games they shouldn’t because that’s what Carr and Allen do. 

Considering New Orleans has an aging roster, bad coaching staff, and an average to below-average quarterback, our only option is to fade the Saints. It's just a matter of how. 

New Orleans Saints' 2024 Projection: 6-11 for last in the NFC South 

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‘Best Bet’ For the 2024 New Orleans Saints on an unlimited bankroll: UNDER 6.5 "alternate win total" (+180) at FanDuel

Again, this is more of a recommendation because, as I've said before, I prefer betting futures at 10-to-1 or higher. However, if I had a separate bankroll specifically for NFL futures, this is how I'd play the Saints in 2024. They are going to suck. Carr peaked in his second season and plays behind one of the worst offensive lines in football, and Allen never had a peak. 

My biggest concern about fading New Orleans is it has the second-easiest schedule, per NFL analyst ClevTA. Yet, according to Warren Sharp, the Saints have a -10 net rest edge, tied for the fifth-worst in the NFL next season. Lastly, they have two games in New York and Green Bay in December and Carr is awful in winter conditions. 

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