New Mexico State Is A Live Dog Against Bowling Green

New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green, 2:30 ET

The Quick Lane Bowl is our appetizer after Christmas, before the meat and potatoes gets here in a few days with the bigger games. While this isn't much of a game that you'd be super excited about days in advance, it is the only game we get and that means we can spend a little more time breaking it down and finding the right way to play it.

New Mexico State finished the season with a 6-6 record and won four of their past five games. Their offense has looked outstanding in those four wins. The one loss was to a good Missouri state team. Simply put, they were overmatched in the game. Over their past four wins, they have outscored opponents 188 - 44. It isn't like they just magically flipped a switch and became a great team after starting the year 2-5. Part of it was that they weren't playing very good opponents. Two of those four games were against Valparaiso and Lamar - two schools that I didn't even know had colleges. I also think that it helps that they played on December 3rd. Now they don't have quite as much rust coming into this game. Some might say that they won't have had as much time to prepare either, but I don't think that is as important.

Bowling Green comes into this game with the same 6-6 record and just 3-2 in their past five games. They also haven't played in over a month. They battled admirably through the MAC games they had to play and lost their most recent game to Ohio. Teams in the MAC tend to have inflated yards on offense and defense, but I don't feel this is the case for Bowling Green. Their offense isn't that great at just 337.6 yards per game. Their defense also isn't stopping many people. I do feel like they have a better secondary than line and are going to struggle to contain New Mexico's running game. If they do stop the Aggies on the ground then Bowling Green wins this game with ease.

I don't expect that to happen. I'm taking New Mexico State to win this game. You can, of course, take the points and it will be a safer bet. I'm going to play the +150 moneyline. Normally I like the team that has played better opponents, which would be Bowling Green. In this case though, I like that New Mexico has played more recently and think they can attack Bowling Green's average defense.

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