3-Pack Of NCAA Tournament Best Bets For Saturday

Auburn's choke job vs. Yale Friday cost me my only survivor pool entry. However, my Final Four picks for the 2024 NCAA Tournament are somehow intact as of 7:45 p.m. ET Friday. That might not be very impressive, but my tournament is usually over by now. That said, I probably just jinxed the Purdue Boilermakers and Duke Blue Devils, who still need to play their first-round games. 

Midwest Region: 5-seed Gonzaga (-4.5) vs. 4-seed Kansas, 3:15 p.m. ET on CBS

This is probably a mistake because I think everyone will be on ‘Zaga. Yet, per Erik Haslam, Kansas is 350th in "away-from-home" efficiency (out of 363 D-1 schools) and Gonzaga is 153rd. That's important because the Bulldogs played a harder non-conference schedule. They faced (but lost to) Connecticut, Purdue, and San Diego State. UConn and Purdue are both 1-seeds in their respective regions. 

Even though Kansas held off Samford in a 93-89 win in the first round, I'm not sold on the Jayhawks. They are missing their leading scorer and All-Big 12 First Team junior forward Kevin McCullar. He plays on the wing, which is a preeminent position in basketball. Kansas needs McCullar to both defend Gonzaga senior All-WCC First Team forward Anton Watson and give him buckets back. 

Gonzaga Bulldogs SF Anton Watson grabs a loose ball during the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament vs. the McNeese State Cowboys at Vivint Smart Home Arena-Delta Center in Utah. (Gabriel Mayberry-USA TODAY Sports)

I'm confident ‘Zaga wins by margin (covers) because it takes care of the ball and is one of the best shooting teams in the country. The Bulldogs rank 18th nationally in offensive turnover rate and seventh in effective field goal percentage, which combines 2- and 3-point shooting. Ultimately, these teams have a similar identity, but Gonzaga executes at a higher clip. 

Bet 1.1u on Gonzaga -4.5 (-110) at FanDuel. Give me the Bulldogs up to -5.

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West Region: 9-seed Michigan State (+4) vs. 1-seed North Carolina, 5:30 p.m. ET on CBS 

The sportsbooks are BEGGING for UNC money and, per the available betting splits, they are getting it. Since 2013, 1-seeds are -9.5 favorites on average vs. 9-seeds in 17 games. North Carolina only being -4 at Caesars (-3.5 at most sportsbooks) is a red flag. Especially considering this is basically a home game for the Tar Heels since it's at the Spectrum Center in North Carolina. 

That said, this isn't "Las Vegas with a trap line". It's the consensus sports betting market saying: "The Tar Heels aren't that much better than the Spartans". Regardless, most recreational bettors will be betting UNC at a cheap price and, as corny as it sounds, I want to be on the same side as the sportsbooks. 

Michigan State Spartans PG A.J. Hoggard (11) drives to the hoop on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in the 2024 NCAA Tournament at the Spectrum Center in North Carolina. (Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports)

Furthermore, Michigan State isn't just some random 9-seed. The Spartans have one of the most accomplished head coaches in college basketball on their sidelines. Plus, Michigan State senior PG A.J. Hoggard can play North Carolina senior PG R.J. Davis to a draw and the Spartans have more minutes' continuity, per Ken Pom. 

Lastly, the college basketball gurus think this will be a closer game than the market. Ken Pom, Erik Haslam, and Bart Torvik all project the Tar Heels to win by only 1-3 points. I'm going to defer to those dudes since they have no bias and are looking at just raw efficiency. 

Bet 1.1u on Michigan State +4 (-110) at Caesars. The Spartans are playable down to +2.5. 

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Midwest Region: 7-seed Texas (+6.5) vs. 2-seed Tennessee, 8 p.m. ET on CBS 

I have a hunch that Tennessee gets "Rick Barnes'd", which is to say they choke in the tourney. Maybe it's not a full-on choke and the Volunteers pull it out. But, give me the points with the Longhorns. They are a better shooting team everywhere on the floor with a veteran backcourt and a more skilled big in C Dylan Disu. 

Texas Longhorns C Dylan Disu goes to the rack on the Colorado State Rams in the 2024 NCAA Tournament at Spectrum Center. (Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports)

Tennessee is 308th in defensive 3-point attempt rate and 263rd in defensive FT/FGA. It's tough to beat a quality opponent by more than two possessions when you allow too many threes and get into foul trouble consistently. Honestly, that's all I have on this matchup. I just like Texas's roster and experience and I think the Volunteers are overrated. 

Bet 1.1u on Texas +6.5 (-110) at FanDuel. The Longhorns are playable down to +5.5. 

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