Gonzaga Will Dance To The Final Four In The 2024 NCAA Tournament

The Midwest Region of the 2024 NCAA Tournament is chock-full of underachieving teams. Last year, the Purdue Boilermakers became the second 1-seed ever to lose in the first round. The then-16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson Knights were +23.5 underdogs and upset Purdue 63-58. Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter is one of the best in college basketball. Yet, Purdue hasn't been in the Final Four since hiring Painter in 2006. 

Rick Barnes, head coach of the 2-seed Tennessee Volunteers, can tell Painter to "Hold my beer." UT has been at least a 5-seed in six straight tourneys now and has never advanced past the Sweet 16. Tennessee went 24-8 this season, which is its fewest wins under Barnes since 2018, minus the lost COVID year in 2020. The 3-seed Creighton Bluejays got to the Elite 8 last season, but that's the furthest they've advanced under long-time head coach Greg McDermott. 

Zach Edey and top-seeded Purdue were upset in the 2023 NCAA Tournament by Fairleigh Dickinson. (Adam Cairns/USA TODAY NETWORK)

Most of the criticisms of Purdue and Tennessee are true for the 5-seed Gonzaga Bulldogs. Granted, Gonzaga has gotten closer to a national championship than either of those schools. The Bulldogs lost to the Baylor Bears in the 2021 title game and the North Carolina Tar Heels in 2017. That said, Gonzaga has at least 25 wins every season since 2007 and doesn't have a national championship. 

The 4-seed Kansas Jayhawks are the only team in the Midwest you cannot call an "underachiever." Jayhawks head coach Bill Self is a two-time national champion in 2008 and 2022. However, Kansas's first- and second-leading scorers, C Hunter Dickinson and SF Kevin McCullar, are dealing with injuries entering the tourney. Dickinson and McCullar both won 2024 All-Big 12 First Team honors. 

My point is the Midwest is a free-for-all this year, and you could make good pro- and anti-arguments about the top-five teams in the region. With that in mind, after years of being overpriced and overrated, we are finally getting a good number for Gonzaga. 

Midwest Region Odds (FanDuel) 

• Purdue (+165)
• Tennessee (+340)
• Creighton (+460)
• GONZAGA (+950)
• Kansas (+1200)
• Texas (+2000)
• TCU (+2500)
• Oregon (+3500)
• South Carolina (+3900)
• Utah State (+4900)
• Colorado State (+6000)
• McNeese State (+6500)
• Samford (+1000)
• Akron (+17000)
• Grambling State (+25000)
• Montana State (+25000)

Before discussing why I like Gonzaga, let me poke holes in the higher seeds' resume. Besides 7-foot-4 First Team All-American C Zach Edey, Purdue is undersized at every position. If Edey gets into foul trouble, the Boilermakers are cooked. Plus, Purdue ranks just 336th out of 362 D-1 schools for defensive turnover rate (TOV%), per Ken Pom. Generating turnovers is key in tournament basketball. 

If it weren't for the Bulldogs, I'd be picking the Volunteers to win the Midwest. Tennessee First Team All-American guard Dalton Knecht may be the best player in the tournament. But, I prefer Gonzaga's statistical profile and its odds. More importantly, no coach sucks more in the Big Dance than Barnes. 

As a St. John's graduate, my Big East bias makes it tough to stay away from Creighton. However, when you look under the hood, things worry me about the Bluejays. Specifically, they don't get a lot of easy buckets. Creighton is dead-last nationally in defensive TOV%, 282nd in offensive rebounding rate, and 353rd in offensive FT/FGA rate, according to Ken Pom. 

Best Bet for the Midwest Region: Gonzaga (+950)

Gonzaga's price is too good to pass up. The Bulldogs have three All-West Coast Conference First Team players, such as PG Ryan Nembhard, SF Anton Watson, and big Graham Ike. Nembhard led the conference with 6.7 assists per game. Ike and Watson were second and third, respectively, in Player Efficiency Rating in the WCC. 

Furthermore, per Ken Pom, Gonzaga has a positive net in all "four factors": TOV%, effective field goal shooting, which combines 2-point and 3-point rates, free-throw attempt rates, and rebounding rates. According to Bart Torvik, the Bulldogs have the second-best net efficiency in the Midwest in away and neutral-site games. 

Also, NCAA.com has this cool feature where you can check off the most important stats and you get a "matchup analysis" score. In my case, I checked off assist-to-turnover rate, net efficiency, true shooting, rebounds per game, etc. Well, the Bulldogs have the highest score in the Midwest and the third-highest score in the entire bracket. 

Gonzaga Bulldogs PG Ryan Nembhard drives the ball up the floor on the Loyola Marymount Lions with forward Graham Ike at Gersten Pavilion. (Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)

While Gonzaga head coach Mark Few hasn't won the title, he has the most NCAA Tournament experience in this field. The Bulldogs get flack for coming up short annually, but they usually make a run. Since 2015, ‘Zaga has made it to the Sweet 16 in all eight tourneys. Gonzaga has lost twice in the title game, made three Elite Eight’s and three Sweet 16's. 

It's a long shot but I got Gonzaga losing to the UConn Huskies in the national championship and winning the Midwest Region. 

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