NCAA Tournament 2023 Sunday Bets: Backing The Big East, Gonzaga
My pre-2023 NCAA Tournament confidence has definitely wained. My two longshots to make the Final Four have been eliminated and my game-to-game picks have been atrocious. I still have three of my Final Four in the tourney but whatever.
This tournament has been a compilation of bad beats and misreads, which I'll blame fully on the coaches, players and officials (joking). But, I do need to end this 1st weekend of the Big Dance with a winning day.
In order to do so I'm betting the most underrated conference in college hoops and a Blue Blood that isn't as popular as previous seasons. My three looks are in the Marquette-Michigan State, Baylor-Creighton and Gonzaga-TCU matchups.
East Region: 2-seed Marquette Golden Eagles vs. 7-seed Michigan State Spartans, 3:10 p.m. ET on TNT
The market is giving the Spartans too much love based on Tom Izzo who is the most accomplished coach remaining. Marquette's Shaka Smart is no slouch and the Golden Eagles are turning into an elite program.
MSU has the worst shot profile of any team still in the tourney. The Spartans attempt the 4th-worst rate of dunks of the remaining tourney teams, per BartTorvik.com. They attempt the most “far” inefficient 2-pointers and are 22nd in 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr).
Marquette is 5th in both dunk rate and “close” 2-point-attempt rate. The Golden Eagles attempt the 4th-lowest rate of “far” 2s and are 8th in 3PAr.
Marquette Golden Eagles SF Kam Jones gets to the basket on the Vermont Catamounts in the 1st round game of the NCAA Tournament at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Per Haslametrics.com, they have edges in momentum, consistency and away-from-home net efficiency. Actually, Marquette is 5th nationally in away-from-home net efficiency and Michigan State is 292nd.
The Golden Eagles are 4-1-1 against the spread (ATS) in neutral-site games with a +9.3 margin of victory and a +5.9 ATS margin. This is sort of a betting sweet spot for Marquette who is 5-1 ATS as a favorite of -4.5 or less.
NCAA Tournament BET #1: Marquette -3 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
The Marquette Golden Eagles' odds vs. the Michigan State Spartans in the East Regional of the 2023 NCAA Tournament from DraftKing Sportsbook.
South Region 3-seed Baylor Bears vs. 6-seed Creighton Bluejays, 4:10 p.m. ET on TNT
My intent was give out Baylor. I wrote up how Creighton couldn't handle the Bears' three-guard attack featuring L.J. Cryer, Adam Flagler, and Keyonte George. Ignoring obvious matchup edges the Bluejays have.
But, after sleeping on it, I'm feeling like those Creighton matchup edges shouldn't be ignored. Actually, the betting market is the one buying stock into the Bluejays, I'm just following.
Baylor Bears huddles during the game against the Texas Longhorns at the Moody Center in Austin, Texas. (Adam Davis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
According to VSIN, nearly two-thirds of the action at DraftKings Sportsbook is on Baylor. Yet this is down to a pick 'em from the Bears being -1 on the opener.
Like me, DraftKings is following the sharper sportsbooks in the market. At Pinnacle Sportsbook, Creighton is now a slight favorite. Pinnacle is considered the sharpest shop because it books the largest action.
Creighton's matchup edges explains the line movement
Sure, Baylor's guards are phenomenal and the Bears played in the toughest conference in college hoops, the Big XII. No arguing those points.
However, Baylor cannot stop a nosebleed on defense and doesn't have the size to stack up with Creighton. The Bears rank 99th in adjusted defensive efficiency out of 363 programs, according to KenPom.com.
On offense, Baylor relies on getting to the foul line, crashing the offensive glass, and knocking down 3-pointers. Creighton has taken off these things off the table from opponents this season.
North Carolina State Wolfpack's Jarkel Joiner is met at the rim by Creighton big Ryan Kalkbrenner in the first round of the NCAA Tournament at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. (Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
Per Ken Pom, the Bluejays are 12th nationally in defensive rebounding rate, 2nd in defensive free-throw-attempt rate and 9th in 3PAr allowed. The best way to defend the 3 is by not allowing teams to shoot them.
Where the Bears significantly struggle on defense is on the interior due to their lack of size. Baylor ranks 315th in defensive 2-point percentage and Creighton is 22nd in 2-point percentage.
In fact, according to BartTorvik.com, the Bears are allowing the highest opposing dunk rate of any team left in the NCAA Tournament. The Bluejays are 5th in dunk rate of 24 remaining tourney teams.
The three biggest nerds in college hoops are backing Creighton while the public is betting Baylor because it's the bigger program that won the national title two seasons ago.
Ken Pom, Bart Torvik, and Erik Haslam all project the Bluejays to advance. They say that March Madness is all about matchups and Creighton is a bad matchup for Baylor.
NCAA Tournament BET #2: Creighton moneyline (-115) at DraftKings
The Creighton Bluejays' odds vs. the Baylor Bears in the South Regional of the 2023 NCAA Tournament from DraftKing Sportsbook.
West Region 3-seed Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. 6-seed TCU Horned Frogs, 6:40 p.m. ET on TNT
This is payback for when I picked TCU to cover the spread the Bulldogs of Georgia in the College Football Playoff championship and the Horned Frogs got embarrassed.
Just kidding. I'm still pissed about that but I don't think TCU has the offense to keep up with 'Zaga. The Horned Frogs rank 213th in effective field goal shooting (eFG%) and the Bulldogs are 1st in both eFG% and offensive rating, per Ken Pom.
Gonzaga Bulldogs big Drew Timme dunks the ball against the Grand Canyon Antelopes in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. (Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
The Horned Frogs rely too much on creating points off of turnovers and putbacks. They are 23rd in defensive turnover rate (TOV%) and 58th in offensive rebounding. The Bulldogs are 12th in offensive TOV% and 65th in defensive rebounding.
My main hesitancy with backing Gonzaga is based knowing it'll be the public side. Also, the Bulldogs struggle ATS in neutral-site games and in the NCAA Tournament.
That said, I'm ignoring this and riding out with 'Zaga to win by margin en route to a Sweet 16 appearance. The Bulldogs are considerably more efficient in fastbreak and half-court offense.
NCAA Tournament BET #3: Gonzaga -4 (-110) at DraftKings
The Gonzaga Bulldogs' odds vs. the TCU Horned Frogs in the West Regional of the 2023 NCAA Tournament from DraftKing Sportsbook.