NCAA Tournament 2023 Friday Locks: Bet 12 Seeds VCU, Drake To Pull Off The (Cover) Upsets

By time these Friday games tip off at the 2023 NCAA Tournament my bankroll could be in a scary place. I unloaded six bets on the Thursday slate but am dialing it back in the 2nd day in the Round of 64.

GRAB PENN STATE AS PART OF MARCH MADNESS 2023 GAMBLING TRIFECTA: THURSDAY NIGHT GAMES

West Region: 5-seed Saint Mary's Gaels vs. 12-seed VCU Rams, 2 p.m. ET on TBS

VCU has the 6th-longest winning streak (nine games) entering the NCAA Tournament and ran through the Atlantic 10 conference tourney with three straight double-digit blowouts.

Saint Mary's split the West Coast Conference regular-season title with Gonzaga Bulldogs but got smacked 77-51 by 'Zaga in the WCC championship.

I'm looking to fade the Gaels for several reasons including the spread being fishy, the Rams are trending in a better direction and VCU gets better looks than Saint Mary's.

According to Haslametrics.com, the Rams have the 11th-best momentum coming into the Big Dance and the Gaels are 344th in momentum. VCU is 40th in consistency and Saint Mary's is 280th.

VCU Rams celebrate after hitting a 3-pointer vs. the Dayton Flyers in the Atlantic 10 Tournament Championship game at Barclays Center in New York City. (Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

The consistency thing for the Gaels is even more alarming when you see that their away-from-home net efficiency ranks 353rd. Whereas the Rams are 53rd in away-from-home net efficiency, per Haslametrics.com.

Also, Saint Mary's is only -4 despite playing in a few nationally televised games against Gonzaga and peaking with an overtime upset of 'Zaga. VCU hasn't been on anyone's radar this season.

Finally, VCU has the 7th-highest dunk rate in the NCAA Tournament and the 2nd-highest rate of "close" 2-pointers, per BartTorvik.com. Saint Mary's 346th in defensive proximity to the basket of shots allowed.

NCAA Tournament Friday BET #1: VCU +4 (-105) at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to +3

VCU Rams' odds vs. the Saint Mary's Gaels in the 2023 NCAA Tournament from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Thursday, March 16th at 10:50 a.m. ET.

Midwest Region: 5-seed Miami Hurricanes vs. 12-seed Drake Bulldogs, 7:25 p.m. ET on TBS

Miami split the regular-season ACC championship with the Virginia Cavaliers and lost in the conference semifinals to the Duke Blue Devils.

Drake crushed Atlantic 10 regular-season champ Bradley 77-51 in the conference championship and have 13 of its past 14 games entering the NCAA Tournament.

Hurricanes SG Isaiah Wong won the ACC Player of the Year. But, Miami's defense ranks 133rd in adjusted efficiency could be without defensive anchor Norchad Omier. Even if Omier plays he won't be 100%.

This injury explains why Miami is the lowest favored 5-seed. The Hurricanes rank 221st in defensive effective field goal rate (eFG%) and 214th in defensive rebounding rate, per KenPom.com.

Miami head coach Jim Larrañaga checks on Hurricanes F Norchad Omier after rolling his ankle during the ACC Tournament semifinals vs. Duke at Greensboro Coliseum Complex in Greensboro, North Carolina. (Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

Miami's defense was weak with Omier but without the Bulldogs should light up the Hurricanes. Drake's offense operates where Miami's defense is vulnerable: The mid-range.

According to Haslametrics.com, the Bulldogs rank 20th nationally in mid-range field goal percentage and the Hurricanes are 330th in defensive field goal percentage vs. mid-range jumpers.

Lastly, Drake is good in ways I look for when backing a college basketball underdog. The Bulldogs hit free throws, don't turn the ball over, is a good 3-point shooting team and grabs defensive rebounds.

BET: Drake +2 (-110) at DraftKings, down to +1.5

The Drake Bulldogs' odds vs. Miami Hurricanes in the 2023 NCAA Tournament from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Thursday, March 16th at 11:15 a.m. ET.

NCAA TOURNAMENT 2023: BETTING SLEEPERS FOR EVERY REGION, INCLUDING NO. 8 SEED MEMPHIS