NBA Winning Wagers For Wednesday Include Both NY Teams
My NBA betting heater cooled off Tuesday following a 4-1 effort on Christmas. Unfortunately, I have to dial back my daily basketball wagering Wednesday since the NBA only scheduled six games.
NBA Wednesday Best Bets
Milwaukee Bucks at Brooklyn Nets (+5.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
The Bucks are coming off a 129-122 upset loss at the Knicks Christmas day. Giannis Antetokounmpo could miss Wednesday for injury management on his calf. The Nets held off the Detroit Pistons for a 118-112 yesterday (Tuesday) to extend Detroit's losing skid to a record 27 games.
Obviously, my 1st reason for taking the points with Brooklyn is the possible absence of Giannis. He is having an MVP-like season. Giannis scored a team-high 36 points in Milwaukee's 129-125 win over the Nets in their 1st meeting this season.
Milwaukee Bucks PF Giannis Antetokounmpo tries to get past Nets forward Royce O'Neale in an NBA game at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. (John Jones-USA TODAY Sports)
Even if Giannis plays Wednesday, Brooklyn can cover. The Nets were +4.5 vs. the Bucks November 6th and they split the "four factors" and four quarters. Brooklyn did so without two starters: stretch-4 Cameron Johnson and big Nic Claxton.
Granted, Johnson, Claxton and Nets combo guard Spencer Dinwiddie were all ruled out for Wednesday immediately after publishing this article, which is your typical NBA horses***.
Regardless, Brooklyn still has multiple lineups where all five players on the floor can shoot threes. If the Nets can get home from deep, they can fall inside the number. Lastly, Brooklyn is 11-4-1 against the spread (ATS) at home and the Bucks are 5-6 ATS as road favorites.
My prediction: Bucks 118, Nets 116
New York Knicks (+3.5) at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8 p.m. ET
I'm a bias Knicks fan but New York is a better team. The Thunder have better straight up (SU) and ATS records and a higher net rating (7.6-2.8). But, the Knicks have more continuity and depth and if these teams met in a 7-game series, New York would win.
Playoff-basketball, or games between two evenly matched teams, turn into a "battle of possessions". This is usually where the Thunder excel. They are 3rd in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) in non-garbage time and lead the NBA in defensive TOV%, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Oklahoma City is good at converting turnovers into points and averages the most points off turnovers per game. Yet, Knicks PG Jalen Brunson is an old-school floor general and doesn’t turn the ball over. They are 6th in points off of turnovers per game allowed and 7th in offensive TOV%.
New York Knicks PG Jalen Brunson drives to the hole on Thunder SF Luguentz Dort at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. (Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, NYK has a strength-on-weakness edge over OKC on the glass. The Knicks are 2nd in offensive rebounding rate and 3rd in 2nd-chance points per game (PPG). Whereas the Thunder are 28th in 2nd-chance PPG allowed and 29th in defensive rebounding.
Furthermore, New York is better at staying out of foul trouble. The Knicks are 4th in defensive free-throw attempt rate (FTr) and +4.4 in free-throw attempts per game. Oklahoma City is -1.4 free-throw attempts per game and 24th in defensive FTr.
Last season, these teams split their season series 1-1 SU and ATS with the road team winning and covering both. Meaning, OKC's home-court edge doesn't make that big of a difference Wednesday. In fact, New York is 9-8 SU and 10-7 ATS on the road this season.