NBA Western Conference Play-In Tournament Picks: Lakers-Pelicans, Warriors-Kings

After dealing with load management bulls*** and flopping for six-plus months, the real season begins Tuesday with the Western Conference portion of the 2024 SoFi NBA Play-in Tournament. First, the 7-seed New Orleans Pelicans host the 8-seed Los Angeles Lakers and the winner faces the 2-seed, and reigning champion, Denver Nuggets in the 1st round of the 2024 NBA playoffs. 

Then the 10-seed Golden State Warriors visit the 9-seed Sacramento Kings in an elimination game. This is a rematch of their 1st-round series from the 2023 NBA playoffs that went seven games. The winner of Warriors-Kings plays the 1-seed Oklahoma City Thunder in the 1st round. The loser plays a do-or-die game for the 8-seed against the loser of Lakers-Pelicans. 

I know I'm jinxing myself, but I'm coming into the 2024 NBA Playoffs red hot. I've won nine straight games and ended my season with a .500 record. Granted, because of the juice, I'm still down a good chunk of money. That said, I'm rounding into form entering the postseason, which ends in mid-June. Winning back the 18+ units (u) I lost in the NBA regular season is doable. Let's keep it rolling. 

NBA Western Conference Play-In 1st Round Best Bets 

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

Los Angeles Lakers (+100) at New Orleans Pelicans, 7:30 p.m. ET

Los Angeles has New Orleans's number. The Lakers are 3-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) vs. the Pelicans this season with a +14.3 scoring margin. They crushed the Pelicans 133-89 in the 2023 NBA In-Season Tournament Semifinals. Then again, in a must-win for both teams, 124-108, Sunday. NOLA’s only win over LAL this season was at home on the 2nd of a back-to-back for the Lakers.

These teams have a similar shooting profile, but I’m more confident the Lakers will get better looks. Both teams like to attack the basket and pack the paint on defense. However, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Los Angeles is 4th in offensive shot quality since March 1st and 10th defensively. New Orleans is 13th offensively and 19th in defensive shot quality. 

Los Angeles Lakers big Anthony Davis meets New Orleans Pelicans PF Zion Williamson at the basket at Crypto.Com Arena in Los Angeles. (Photo by Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images)

Also, Anthony Davis is one of the best rim protectors in the NBA and Pelicans big Jonas Valančiūnas is one of the worst. This explains why LeBron James dominates NOLA and Valančiūnas scores 3.7 fewer points per game (PPG) than his average vs. the Lakers and Zion Williamson scores 2.6 fewer PPG. LeBron averages 28.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 11.8 assists with a +26 net rating in four games against New Orleans this season. 

Finally, after struggling in December and January, the Lakers have found "their guys" post-All-Star break. Lakers guards D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves can create their own looks and run the pick-and-roll. Since being added to the starting 5 after the NBA All-Star Game, Lakers PF Rui Hachimura has been hooping. Rui is averaging 16.2 PPG on 56.3% shooting and 45.1% from behind the arc over that span.

Bet 1.5u on Los Angeles's moneyline (+100) at DraftKings. The Lakers are playable up to -130 favorites. 

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Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings (+2.5), 10 p.m. ET

Everyone I’ve heard talk about this game likes the Warriors. They opened as slight -1 favorites, got bet up to as high as -3 favorites, and are -2.5 favorites as of 11:30 a.m. ET. That’s too much line movement from the opener based on no new information. The public is under the impression that Golden State is playing much better than Sacramento, but the numbers don’t back that up. 

Per CTG, the Kings have a better non-garbage time net rating and spread differential since March 1st. They are 3-5 SU in April, which weren’t "bad losses". This month, Sactown lost to the New York Knicks at the Garden, at the 1-seed Oklahoma City Thunder, at the Boston Celtics (who have the NBA’s best record), vs. the Pelicans (who are a much worse matchup for Sacramento than Golden State), and the Phoenix Suns. 

READ: Warriors Celebrate Clinching 10th Seed As Golden State's Empire Crumbles

Furthermore, the Kings are missing starting SG Kevin Huerter and combo guard Malik Monk, who was the favorite to win Sixth Man of the Year pre-injury. But, again, the sportsbooks were aware of these injuries before posting the odds. The market feels stronger about those absences than the sportsbooks. In this case, I’m siding with the House over the market.

Partially because three of the four Warriors-Kings meetings this season had a 1-point margin with Sacramento winning two of them. Kings PG De’Aaron Fox missed one of those games and he can be the best player on the floor Tuesday. Fox averages 28.1 points in 13 games against Golden State, including last year’s playoffs. 

Sacramento Kings PG De'Aaron Fox gathers his dribble before a shot vs. the Golden State Warriors during Game 3 of the 2023 NBA playoffs at the Chase Center. (Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports)

Warriors legend Steph Curry has struggled since the NBA All-Star Game. Curry’s scoring average dropped from 28.0 PPG to 23.1 PPG from pre- to post-All-Star break as did his efficiency. His offensive rating fell from 120 to 114, his field goal shooting from 46.2% to 42.3%, and his 3-point shooting from 42.1% to 37.9% in the 2nd half of the season.

Lastly, the Kings match up well with the Warriors and beat them in three of the "four factors" during the regular season. Sacramento won the free-throw battle (20.3-17.3 made free throws per game), the rebounding battle (+2.3 rebounds per game), and the turnover battle (5.2 fewer turnovers per game).

Bet 1.08u on the Kings +2.5 (-108) at DraftKings. Give me Sacramento down to a pick 'em. 

• For the record, I'm waiting until as close to tip-off as possible, hoping to get +3 or +3.5 with the Kings because most of the action for this game will come in the hour before starting.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.