3 Division Games Form Geoff Clark's NBA Wednesday Betting Card
There's only one day left in the first-half of the NBA 2023-24 season. Because of the All-Star break starting Friday, 26 NBA teams play Wednesday. Granted, even though most teams are playing, who knows how many players sit Wednesday considering this bogus "load management" era? I'm sure a bunch of NBA superstars will use some PTO to get an extra-long All-Star vacation.
Saltiness aside, I'm excited about Wednesday's slate of NBA games. That said, I'm always excited about basketball, regardless of who plays, since I'm an NBA betting degenerate. With that in mind, here are a few …
NBA Wednesday Best Bets
- The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets (+7), 7:30 p.m. ET
The Hawks have no business being this big of a road favorite over anyone in the NBA, especially in division games. They are 7-15 against the spread (ATS) as road favorites since 2022. Atlanta is 10-18 ATS vs. Southeast Division foes and 6-16 ATS as favorites in divisional games over that span.
Charlotte has won, and covered, four of the past five meetings with Atlanta since last season. The Hornets beat the Hawks 116-110 in October for their first and only meeting this season. Granted, Hornets PG LaMelo Ball played in most of those games and is out for this contest.
But, if you take a minute and look at Charlotte's roster, it has some dudes who can play. I'm high on the Hornets' No. 2 overall pick, SF Brandon Miller, who is averaging 16.4 points per game (PPG). They added a few floor-spacing 3-point shooters at the trade deadline, such as SG Seth Curry, PF Grant Williams and PF Davis Bertans.
(Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, Hornets wing Miles Bridges is a wife-beating POS, but he's an excellent basketball player. Bridges is averaging a career-best 21.6 PPG and 7.2 rebounds this season. "Wing" is the premier position in basketball and Bridges is the best wing in Hawks-Hornets Wednesday.
Lastly, there's some sketchy line movement and betting splits that suggest Charlotte is the sharp side. The Hornets opened as +7.5 home underdogs and are down to +7 as of 10:15 a.m. ET Wednesday morning. This is despite more than 90% of the action being on the Hawks at the time of writing, per Pregame.com.
BET 1.1u on the Hornets +7 (-110) at Caesars. Charlotte is bet-able down to +5.5.
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Houston Rockets (-135) at Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies aren't serious people. They are pretty much a G-League team decimated by injuries. Memphis's only 1st-string player in the starting 5 is reigning NBA Defensive Player of the Year, PF Jaren Jackson Jr. The Rockets are 3-0 SU and ATS vs. the Grizzlies so far this season.
Also, Houston attempts the sixth-highest rate of field goals at the rim, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). I bring that up because Jackson tends to gamble for blocks and can get into foul trouble. If the Rockets attack the basket like they usually do, Houston could play Jackson off the floor.
(Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports)
Both teams are playing in their last games before the All-Star break. But, Houston has something to play for whereas Memphis is just waiting for the offseason. The Rockets are 3.0 games behind the Golden State Warriors for the 10th and final seed in the playoff play-in tournament.
Houston struggles away from home but is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS as road favorites. The Grizzlies are 2-15 SU and 7-10 ATS as home underdogs with a -9.2 scoring margin. Memphis chucks a bunch of threes since it's limited offensively. Yet, the Rockets are 5th in defensive rating and 2nd in defensive 3-point shooting percentage.
BET 1.35u on Houston's moneyline (-135) at Caesars. The Rockets are playable up to -140 or -3.5.
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Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors (-3), 10 p.m. ET
Since Dec. 1, the Clippers have been the best team in the NBA. But, they'll be without All-Star Kawhi Leonard Wednesday. Per CTG, Kawhi has a +10.1 non-garbage time on/off net rating, which ranks in the 93rd percentile of wings. Leonard is scoring a team-high 24.1 PPG with career-bests in shooting from everywhere on the floor (.527/.453/.891).
Without Kawhi, the Clippers will be easier to defend. Since Draymond Green returned from a suspension Jan. 15, the Warriors are fifth in defensive rating, according to CTG. Between Draymond, SG Gary Payton II, SF Andrew Wiggins, and wing Jonathan Kuminga, Golden State's defense has top-five potential in today's NBA.
(Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)
Adding to that, the Warriors lead the NBA in defensive shot quality, per CTG. The Clippers are 27th in offensive shot quality because they tend to attempt too many mid-range jumpers. Draymond's return allows Steph Curry to play off-ball because Green can handle the point guard duties. Since Jan. 15, Curry is averaging 31.8 PPG on .519/.481/.943 shooting in 12 games.
Finally, it helps that Kuminga is in the midst of a breakout season. Kuminga is scoring 22.3 PPG on 57.0% shooting over the past 12 games. Basically, the Warriors are clicking — 7-1 SU and ATS over their last eight games — and they'll keep it rolling to end the first-half of the season.
BET 1.1u on the Warriors -3 (-110) at DraftKings. Gimme Golden State up to -4.
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