NBA Wednesday Wagers Include Only Teams With Winning Records
I need to quit the Detroit Pistons and betting bad teams in general. Detroit was my only loser in the NBA on Tuesday and many of my losses this season have come when backing bad teams. Usually, bad teams are where you find value in sports betting.
However, there are too many advantageous betting spots and games on the NBA calendar to force it with a team like the Pistons. Will I learn my lesson? Probably not. That said, I'm trying to turn over a new leaf in my ...
NBA Wednesday Best Bets
Minnesota Timberwolves (+6) at Phoenix Suns, 9 p.m. ET tip-off
Continuity is the most important thing in basketball. Hence I'm fading the Suns in their 1st game with Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Kevin Durant. And I'm doing so with the best defense in the NBA through the first three weeks or so of the season.
Minnesota leads the Association in defensive rating and defensive effective field goal shooting (eFG%) by a wide margin. The Suns have the third-worst offensive turnover rate (TOV%) and the T-Wolves are 10th in defensive TOV%.
Phoenix's turnover woes won't cease Wednesday. Neither one of the Suns' Big 3 is a point guard and it's going to take time for them to figure out who's running the offense. Minnesota on the other hand is making defense its identity.
Minnesota Timberwolves big Rudy Gobert contests Golden State Warriors PG Chris Paul's fadeaway at Chase Center in San Francisco, California. (Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
Also, this is a "good spot" for the T-Wolves. They beat the Golden State Warriors 104-101 Wednesday. Since last season, Minnesota is 9-5 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) on the 2nd of a back-to-back.
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Furthermore, the Timberwolves appear to be the sharp side. Legal U.S. sportsbooks have Minnesota as +6 underdogs as of 11 a.m. ET Wednesday morning. While Betcris and Bookmaker list the T-Wolves at +5.5.
That's relevant because those are two of the sharpest oddsmakers in the world, known for booking the largest bets. Per Pregame.com, more money is on Minnesota and more bets are on Phoenix. Typically, the cash column of the betting splits is the sharp money.
My prediction: Timberwolves 113, Suns 109
Sacramento Kings (+1.5) at Los Angeles Lakers, 10 p.m. ET tip-off
Kings PG De'Aaron Fox returned in Sacramento's 132-120 home win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday. According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Sactown scores 24.0 more points per 100 possessions than its opponents when Fox is on the floor.
Last regular season, Fox scored 29.8 points on 57.9% shooting in four meetings with the Lakers. The Kings are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five regular-season games vs. LAL, which includes a 132-127 victory in October pre-Fox injury.
Fox put up a game-high 37 points on 14-of-24 shooting with +15 net rating against the Lakers earlier this season. The bottom line is LAL's guards cannot defend Fox. Lakers PG D'Angelo Russell has one of the worst basketball IQs in the NBA and Fox will blow by SG Austin Reaves.
Kings PG De'Aaron Fox shoots a floater over Los Angeles Lakers big Jaxon Hayes at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. (Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
When Fox is in the game, the Kings get out in transition. Last season, Sacramento was 9th in fastbreak efficiency, per CTG, and LAL was 28th defensively. Since both teams have the same rosters, I'm comfy using last season's data for this handicap.
Finally, the Kings are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA for a 2nd consecutive season. Sacramento's offense is 2nd in wide-open 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) and 10th defensively. The Lakers rank 24th in defensive wide-open 3PAr and 28th offensively.