NBA Wednesday 'Locks' Despite The Load Management Garbage
I don't know how much more of this "load management" crap I can put up with. It's the middle of the afternoon on Wednesday and we still don't know who's playing in most of the NBA games.
If it continues, I might punt on handicapping the Association daily. However, basketball is my favorite sport and I'll have action on the NBA Wednesday. Feel free to fade, tail or layoff these following ...
NBA Wednesday Winning Wagers
Indiana Pacers (+11.5) at Boston Celtics, 7:30 p.m. ET
Buyer beware. Indiana has two starters "questionable" to play Wednesday such as All-Star PG Tyrese Haliburton and SG Bennedict Mathurin. If Haliburton misses, this bet on the Pacers is FUBAR. But, if Haliburton suits up Wednesday, we have a good number.
Since the beginning of last season, Indiana is 10-5 against the spread (ATS) as road underdogs with a +6.4 spread differential. The Pacers split their two regular-season meetings with the Celtics straight up (SU) and ATS last season.
Indiana Pacers PG Tyrese Haliburton takes a floater against the Celtics at TD Garden in Boston. (Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
The 3-pointer is the end-all-be-all of the NBA nowadays. Indiana is an elite 3-point shooting that plays a fast-paced style and can keep up with Boston in a shootout. With that in mind, the Pacers get better looks than the Celtics.
Indiana has the best wide-open 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) on both ends of the floor through its first three games. Boston is bottom-five in both offensive and defensive wide-open 3PAr.
My prediction: Celtics 121, Pacers 115.
Memphis Grizzlies (+2.5) at Utah Jazz, 9 p.m. ET
The Grizzlies aren't as bad as their 0-4 record indicates. DunksAndThrees.com adjusts for strength of schedule and ranks Memphis 14th in adjusted net rating (nRTG) and Utah 21st.
Also, the Grizzlies have a -8.4 non-garbage time nRTG (23rd), according to CleaningTheGlass.com, and the Jazz have a -12.1 non-garbage time nRTG (28th).
Furthermore, the Grizzlies are fifth in wide-open 3PAr and the Jazz are in the bottom 10. Utah likes to attack the rim but Memphis has the reigning NBA Defensive Player of the Year, Jaren Jackson Jr.
Utah Jazz PF Lauri Markkanen drives to the basket on Grizzlies PF Jaren Jackson Jr. at FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee. (Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports)
Not only can Jackson contest or block shots at the rim but he's the perfect guy to guard Jazz All-Star PF Lauri Markkanen. Jackson has the athleticism to stay in front of Markkanen who is mostly a perimeter player.
Lastly, Utah has one of the worst defensive backcourts in the NBA. Grizzlies guards Marcus Smart and Desmond Bane should light up Jazz guards Talen Horton-Tucker and Jordan Clarkson.
My prediction: Grizzlies 114, Jazz 109
Los Angeles Clippers (+4.5) at Los Angeles Lakers, 10 p.m. ET
After spending most of the day arguing with myself on whether or not to bet the Clippers, I'm on board. The reason for my hesitancy was LAC bouncing between +6 and +2.5 underdogs due to uncertainty about Kawhi Leonard's and Paul George's status.
That said, I'll take whatever number I can get on the Clippers with Kawhi and PG in the lineup. When healthy, Kawhi and PG are better players than LeBron. Plus, Russell Westbrook will be up for this game after his experience with the Lakers in recent seasons.
More importantly, the Clippers have owned the Lakers. Since 2012, the Clippers are 36-9 SU (+10.2 SU margin) and 30-15 ATS (+4.4 ATS margin) against the Lakers. After LeBron joined the Lakers in 2018, they are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS vs. the Clippers as a favorite.
Finally, LAC is the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. The Clippers are shooting an NBA-high 41% from behind the arc. They average roughly three MORE 3-pointers made per game than their opponent.
My prediction: Clippers 117, Lakers 112
