NBA Wednesday Gambling 3-Pack Includes The Clippers Finally Beating The Nuggets
Following back-to-back nights of the In-Season Tournament quarterfinals, the NBA returns to normal regular-season games Wednesday. After a 2-0 Monday, I stunk up the joint Tuesday when the Milwaukee Bucks pummeled the New York Knicks.
LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers saved me from a disastrous night by holding off the Phoenix Suns. There's no football to bet on and I don't gamble on hockey, so I've locked in three ...
NBA Wednesday Best Bets
Brooklyn Nets (+4) at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off
Point blank, I like Brooklyn's roster more. The Nets have a bunch of long athletes that can shoot 3s, play defense and create their own look. While most of Atlanta's offense runs through PG Trae Young who's an overrated outside shooter and terrible defender.
Brooklyn is 1-2 straight up (SU) but 3-0 against the spread (ATS) vs. the Hawks since the Nets picked up forwards Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith, and combo guard Spencer Dinwiddie last season.
Brooklyn Nets small forward Mikal Bridges drives to the hole on Hawks point guard Trae Young at State Farm Arena in Atlanta. (Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports)
Atlanta beat Brooklyn 147-145 in overtime in November. Essentially, the Nets matchup well with the Hawks. There's no one for Atlanta to hunt on defense vs. Brooklyn.
The Hawks are good at getting to the foul line but the Nets are 10th in defensive free-throw rate (FTr), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). Brooklyn is ninth in putbacks per 100 missed field goals and Atlanta's defense is 29th in putbacks allowed per 100 misses.
Finally, the Hawks have the worst shot selection allowed, per CTG. They are facing a Nets team that chucks a ton of 3s and ranks 3rd in 3-point shooting.
My prediction: Nets 128, Hawks 120
Oklahoma City Thunder (-130) at Houston Rockets, 8 p.m. ET tip-off
OKC's moneyline is just too good to pass up. Hopefully, there's just not a lot of action in a Thunder-Rockets game in the beginning of December. Otherwise, I'm not sure why Oklahoma City's odds are this cheap.
The Rockets have been great at home this season. They are 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in Houston with a +13.3 scoring margin. The Rockets have home wins vs. the Sacramento Kings (twice), Los Angeles Lakers, and Denver Nuggets (twice).
Oklahoma City Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander posts up Minnesota Timberwolves SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker during an NBA In-Season Tournament game at Target Center in Minneapolis. (David Berding/Getty Images)
My explanation for OKC only being -130 on the moneyline at PointsBet is the market is still hung up on Houston's 6-game winning streak at home last month. Currently, the Rockets are 8-9 SU and the Thunder are 10-2 SU and ATS with a +13.6 scoring margin vs. losing teams.
Finally, Oklahoma City has a strength-on-weakness edge over Houston in drawing fouls. According to CTG, the Thunder are 6th in offensive FTr thanks to All-Star combo guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Rockets are 28th defensively.
My prediction: Thunder 112, Rockets 104
Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Clippers (-110), 10 p.m. ET tip-off
There are three reasons betting the Clippers Wednesday is scary. First, I've lost more money betting the Clippers since they acquired Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in 2019.
Second, Denver has beaten LAC in eight straight meetings while covering the spread in seven of them. Third, James Harden is my least or 2nd-least favorite player in the NBA.
Before digging into this matchup, I fully expected to be on the Nuggets Wednesday. However, given Denver's winning streak vs. LAC, this line is super sketchy.
Nuggets All-Star PG Jamal Murray has a shot at playing Wednesday and wing Aaron Gordon is "probable" to play. More importantly, Nikola Jokic pecker-smacks the Clippers. So, why is Nuggets-Clippers priced as a coin-flip?
Los Angeles Clippers wing Kawhi Leonard and C Ivica Zubac pressure Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic in the 2020 NBA Playoffs at AdventHealth Arena in Orlando, Florida. (Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports)
That said, what got me on the Clippers is how well they've been defending after trading for Harden and the Nuggets playing terrible defense in transition.
Since Nov. 6 (Harden's first game as a Clipper), LAC is eighth in defensive rating in non-garbage time, per CTG. They are holding opponents to 4.4 fewer points per 100 possessions when Harden is on the floor.
Furthermore, the Nuggets have the 4th-worst defensive efficiency in transition while the Clippers fast-break at the fourth-highest frequency in the NBA, according to CTG.
Lastly, this is a max-motivation game for the Clippers, they are at home and role players shoot better at home, and LAC has four elite 3-point shooters (Harden, Kawhi, PG, and wing Norman Powell).