A Pick In Lakers-Clippers Plus 2 NBA Bets For Wednesday
It's been a rough week or so for me betting the NBA. I'm in a dark place but got a much-needed bounce-back performance on Tuesday after chopping my 1st best bet and then winning the next two. Unfortunately, my NBA 2023-24 bankroll is still in the red at -11.3 units (u) with time running out in the NBA regular season.
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Honestly, I'm kind of forcing it Wednesday. There are only six games in the NBA, and I've placed a bet in three of them. That said, wait until the official starting 5's are announced before fading or following any of these looks. The "load management" era makes betting the NBA regular season an absolute crapshoot.
NBA Wednesday Betting Card
- The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
New Orleans Pelicans (+7) at Indiana Pacers, 7:30 p.m. ET
The Pelicans are 9-7 straight up (SU) and 10-5-1 against the spread (ATS) as road underdogs. There has been sharp line movement towards New Orleans in the betting market. The Pelicans opened as +6 underdogs and are down to +5.5 despite more than 80% of the action being on the Pacers, per Pregame.com and Vegas Insider.
Even though NOLA is on the 2nd of a back-to-back (B2B), I'm taking the Pelicans ATS because they can get stops whereas Indy cannot. New Orleans pulled away from the New York Knicks in a 115-92 win Tuesday. The Pelicans are 5-4 SU and 5-4 ATS on zero days' rest. The Pacers lost to the Toronto Raptors 130-122 in their last outing, Monday.
New Orleans Pelicans PF Zion Williamson gets in the paint vs. the Los Angeles Lakers at Crypto.com Arena.
(Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)
But, in February, New Orleans ranks 9th in offensive efficiency and 4th in defensive rating, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). Indiana is 10th in offensive rating but just 20th in defensive efficiency. The Pacers have run the most half-court offense this month and the Pelicans are 5th in half-court defensive efficiency, per CTG.
Finally, NOLA crashes the glass while Indy struggles to grab rebounds defensively. The Pelicans are 8th in offensive rebounding rate this month and 3rd in second-chance points per game (PPG). The Pacers are 22nd in defensive rebounding rate and 21st in second-chance PPG allowed.
Bet 1.1u on New Orleans +7 (-110) at Caesars. The Pelicans are playable down to +5.5.
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Dallas Mavericks (-2.5) at Toronto Raptors, 7:30 p.m. ET
I like "selling high" on the Raptors, who have won three straight, and "buying low" on the Mavs after an excruciating 119-118 loss on Tuesday to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Dallas PF P.J. Washington hit a would-be go-ahead layup with 2.6 seconds remaining only to have Cavs SG Max Strus sink a buzzer-beating 59-foot 3-pointer.
The Mavericks are 15-8 SU and ATS following a loss with a +3.8 scoring margin. They are 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS on the 2nd of a B2B. Plus, Dallas is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS on the road in a B2B with a +9.0 spread differential. The Mavs haven't released an injury report for Wednesday yet, but they don't have lingering injuries to worry about.
Also, I'm trying out a new NBA handicapping angle that looks at recent half-court efficiency. Since defenses can be set up in those situations, I think half-court efficiency is predictive. Time will tell if this angle is profitable. However, the Mavericks have a better offensive and defensive rating in the half-court in February, according to CTG.
Dallas Mavericks All-Star Luka Dončić shoots a floater against the Phoenix Suns at American Airlines Center in Texas.
(Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports)
Ultimately, Dallas lives and dies with the three and Toronto allows opponents to chuck from behind the arc. The Mavs are 2nd in 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) and 10th in 3-point shooting percentage. Per CTG, the Raptors are 29th in defensive 3PAr this month. If they allow Dallas to turn this into a 3-point shootout, Toronto will get rolled Wednesday.
Bet 1.15u on the Mavericks -2.5 (-115) at DraftKings. Dallas is bet-able up to -4.
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Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers (-3.5), 10 p.m. ET
Essentially, I bet the Clippers over the Lakers in all four of their regular-season meetings annually. Since 2012, the Clippers are 36-9 SU and 30-15 ATS with a +10.3 scoring margin vs. the Lakers. Granted, the Lake Show beat the Clippers in their 1st two meetings this season. But, they returned to the status quo when the Clippers trounced the Lakers 127-116 last month.
The Lakers count on getting to the charity stripe. However, the Clippers are 6th in free-throw attempts per game allowed. LAL averages 24.3 free throws per game yet have only attempted 17.7 free throws per game in their three games vs. LAC this season.
Los Angeles Lakers' LeBron James attacks Clippers C Ivica Zubac and All-Star Kawhi Leonard at Crypto.com Arena.
(Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports)
The Clippers and Lakers both last played Sunday. LAC lost to the Sacramento Kings 123-107 and LAL lost at the Phoenix Suns 123-113. On 2-3 days' rest, the Clippers are 9-0 SU with a +12.0 scoring margin and the Lakers are 4-6 SU.
Lastly, the Lakers are 28th in 3-point attempts per game allowed, and the Clippers are 2nd in 3-point shooting at 39.3%. The Clippers are +3.0 in threes made per game in their three meetings with the Lakers this season (17.0-14.0).
Bet 1.1u on the Clippers -3.5 (-110) across the board. Give me the Clippers up to -4.5.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.