NBA Tuesday 'Locks' Include Ja Morant's Return Action
Originally, I was planning to load manage Tuesday and not bet the NBA. However, I warmed up to this slate after realizing Memphis Grizzlies PG Ja Morant returns from his gun-related suspension.
More importantly, I'm kind of feeling it in the NBA recently. I'm 5-1 over my last six public bets and have a chance of reaching my goal of an even balance by Christmas. That said, I hold myself to a higher standard and expect to be in the black after these ...
NBA Best Bets for Tuesday
Memphis Grizzlies (+7) at New Orleans Pelicans, 7:30 p.m. ET
Grizzlies gun-toting Morant returns tonight from a 25-game suspension after flashing a firearm — TWICE — on Instagram. Would I want Ja dating my daughter? No. Actually, I don't know. He's pretty rich. But, do I want him point-guarding my basketball team? F— yes.
Memphis's starting point guard last night (Monday) was G-League PG Jacob Gilyard. The gap between Gilyard and Ja is a country-mile. Gilyard averages 6.9 points and 3.8 assists in eight games as a starter this season.
Last season, Ja scored 26.2 points per game (PPG) and threw a career-high 8.1 assists. Morant leads the Grizzlies in usage rate since being drafted in 2019. Ja creates open looks for teammates off of his dribble penetration.
Also, DunksAndThrees.com accounts for strength of schedule. That site gives Memphis a -3.8 net rating and New Orleans a +1.7 net rating. I can see making the Pelicans -7 of -7 favorites when you add in their home-court edge.
New Orleans PF Zion Williamson and Grizzlies PG Ja Morant chat during an NBA game at FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee. (Justin Ford/Getty Images)
But, that's based on the Grizzlies without Morant. Memphis is at least 4 points better when Ja plays, especially in this matchup. A majority of Morant's looks are at the rim or in the short-mid-range and that's where NOLA is most vulnerable defensively.
According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), the Pelicans are 22nd in defensive field goal shooting at the rim and 25th vs. short-mid-range field goals. New Orleans All-Star Zion Williamson and C Jonas Valančiūnas are bad defenders.
Finally, Zion might not play, which makes Grizzlies big, and reigning NBA Defensive Player of the Year, Jaren Jackson Jr.'s life easier. Williamson has the "illness" that's going around and, without Zion, Jackson can focus on Pelicans wing Brandon Ingram.
My prediction: Grizzlies 113, Pelicans 111
Boston Celtics (-5.5) at Golden State Warriors, 10 p.m. ET
The Celtics are a buzzsaw currently and the Warriors are reeling. Boston is on a 5-game winning streak and ranks atop the NBA in adjusted net rating, per DunksAndThree.com. Whereas Golden State is 10th in adjusted net rating and the current 11-seed out West.
Plus, without Draymond Green, the Warriors don't have enough defense to slow down Celtics All-Stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. While Boston has two elite perimeter defenders, PG Jrue Holiday and SG Derrick White, to throw at Steph Curry.
Boston Celtics wing Jayson Tatum backs down Golden State Warriors' Stephen Curry in Game 1 of the 2022 NBA Finals at Chase Center in San Francisco. (Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
Furthermore, the Celtics should be the more motivated team. This Golden State core (sans Draymond obviously) has four titles including a 2022 NBA Finals win over Boston. This is the best version of the current Celtics core and they are on a warpath.
Lastly, Golden State's offense is too one-dimensional. In previous years, the Warriors would get easy looks because of their off-ball movement and outside shooting. Well, the Dubs are 24th in 2-point shooting and Boston is 2nd in defensive 2-point shooting.
My prediction: Celtics 122, Warriors 110
Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers (+7.5), 10 p.m. ET
Neither one of these teams are playing well lately. Phoenix is 3-6 straight up and 1-8 against the spread (ATS) over the last nine games. Portland is on a 7-game losing skid and 3-4 ATS over that span.
But, the Trail Blazers are healthy and "Suns -7.5" is too big of a number in this spot. This is Portland's third consecutive game with combo guard Anfernee Simons, wing Jerami Grant, and big Deandre Ayton all healthy.
According to CTG, the Trail Blazers have a +3.7 non-garbage time net rating with these three dudes on the floor. Simons averages 25.7 points per game (PPG) and Grant is scoring 22.7 PPG, which ranks 1st and 2nd for Portland.
Portland Trail Blazers forward Jerami Grant shoots a fadeaway over Suns All-Star Kevin Durant during the NBA In-Season Tournament at Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona. (Chris Coduto/Getty Images)
Granted, the Suns are more talented than the Blazers. Yet, Phoenix has the same continuity issues as Portland. The Suns are without combo guard Bradley Beal, again. Devin Booker and Kevin Durant are still getting familiar with their supporting cast.
So my bet is half "fading Phoenix" and half "backing Portland". Grant is a versatile scorer who can defend ball-handling forwards and guards. Simons is an elite 3-point shooter and floor-spacer. The Suns are still developing rhythm.