Comeback Season For Geoff Clark In NBA Betting Begins Tuesday

Now that we are waiting for the men's and women's NCAA Tournaments Final Fours, it's time for daily sports bettors to wrap their arms around the NBA. I've taken a few weeks off from betting on the Association because this regular season has been a hellscape. Instead of giving out losers to the OutKick readers, it was better to take a beat and not force things. 

Hopefully, the self-imposed NBA sabbatical helped and I'm seeing things clearer now. Entering April, my NBA 2023-24 record is an atrocious 177-185-2 and my bankroll has taken a hit of -25.4 units (u). It hurts writing that. However, will I stop firing? Nope. It's going to take a heater to get back to even, but I've won 30+ units in two months of betting on the Association. 

NBA Betting Card For Tuesday, April 2nd  

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Philadelphia 76ers (+2.5), 7:30 p.m. ET

I'm fading my projections for the Thunder-76ers, which made Oklahoma City a -6.5 favorite without factoring in injuries. Thunder forward, and second-leading scorer, Jalen Williams is out and All-Star PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) is questionable for Tuesday and missed the morning shootaround. 

SGA has the third-best odds to win the 2023-24 NBA MVP (+2000) at DraftKings. Per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Gilgeous-Alexander has a +9.2 on/off net rating in non-garbage time. Williams leads the Association in field goal shooting in the "clutch" (this is when a game has a 5-point margin with five minutes to play). 

New York Knicks SG Miles McBride defends Philadelphia 76ers PG Tyrese Maxey at Madison Square Garden. (Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports)

Philly should get a motivational boost from the news that reigning NBA MVP Joel Embiid is nearing his return. Embiid has been out since Feb. 1st with a knee injury but will be back for the playoffs. Also, 76ers All-Star PG Tyrese Maxey is questionable for Tuesday yet was seen at shootaround. Maxey will be the best player on the floor Tuesday if SGA is out. 

Lastly, the Sixers have been exceeding expectations recently and the Thunder have been falling short. For instance, Philadelphia is 7-3 against the spread (ATS) over the last 10 games, including three straight and five of the last six. Whereas OKC is 3-7 ATS over its previous 10 games. 

Bet 1.1u on Sixers +2.5 (-110) at DraftKings. Philadelphia is bet-able down to pick 'em if SGA is out. 

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Los Angeles Clippers at Sacramento Kings (+2.5), 10 p.m. ET

Based on how they are playing, the Clippers shouldn't be favored in Sacramento. Since March 1st, the Clippers are 26th in non-garbage time defensive rating, per CTG. LAC is acting like they've accomplished something when they haven't. This team hasn't won any titles or even been to the NBA Finals, but still, they half-a** it on defense. 

Also, the Clippers make the fewest passes per game and have a weak shot profile. They have the worst wide-open 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) in the NBA. "Wide-open" is when the 3-point shooter has at least six feet of distance from the nearest defender. That stat matches the eye test. James Harden and Kawhi Leonard play hero ball and settle for contested jumpers. 

Sacramento Kings PG De'Aaron Fox shoots a floater over Los Angeles Clippers SG Terance Mann at Crypto.com Arena. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

Furthermore, this could be a lookahead spot for the Clippers, who play the Denver Nuggets on primetime Thursday while the Kings are fighting to avoid the postseason play-in tournament out West. Motivation is key for regular-season NBA betting and Sacramento is likelier to give an all-in effort Tuesday. 

More importantly, the Kings get better looks because they basically have two point guards on the court with C Domantas Sabonis and PG De'Aaron Fox. Sacramento averages the second-most passes per game and ranks fourth in wide-open 3PAr. 

Bet 1.1u on Sacramento +2.5 (-110) at Caesars. Give me the Kings down to a pick 'em. 

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Dallas Mavericks (-104) at Golden State Warriors, 10 p.m. ET 

The Mavericks are one of the hottest teams in the NBA. They have won 11 of their last 12 games, including seven straight. Dallas has several impressive victories over that span vs. teams such as the Miami Heat, Denver Nuggets, Sacramento Kings (twice), Houston Rockets, and the Warriors March 13th. 

Last month, Luka Dončić averaged a triple-double (32.5-10.1-10.1) and has played his way into the NBA MVP race. Luka scored 47 points on 60.0% shooting vs. a red-hot Rockets team Sunday. Dončić's teammates have seemingly settled into their roles. Kyrie Irving has been on his best behavior this season and is nearly a "50/40/90" guy. 

Dallas Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic looks to pass with Golden State Warriors PF Draymond Green and Stephen Curry double teaming him at American Airlines Center. (Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports)

Moreover, Luka usually balls out against the Warriors. Perhaps he gets up to play Steph Curry and Golden State, who have been title contenders since the Mavs drafted Dončić. Since 2021, Luka is averaging 32.1 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 7.7 assists per game vs. the Warriors. One of my best friends is from the Bay Area and is terrified of Luka. 

Finally, this is an NBA on TNT game and I have a longstanding theory that Dončić balls out on primetime. I'm not charting this theory, but I watch the NBA more than anyone you know. So, take my word for it. Or don't. In fact, my NBA 2023-24 betting record suggests you should fade "my word". 

Bet 1.04u on Dallas's moneyline (-108) at FanDuel. The Mavericks are playable up to -1.5. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.