3 Gross NBA Bets Tuesday For A League Of No-Shows
Tuesday might be a good day to ignore the NBA. Nearly every team has a key player on the injury report. This is the "load management" era in the NBA so there's no telling who will play Tuesday. That said, in the spirit of writing betting content, and because I'm an NBA gambling junkie, I moved forward with three sketchy bets.
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In fact, 10 minutes after locking in a bet on the Philadelphia 76ers, they announced All-Star PG Tyrese Maxey wouldn't play. Immediately, Philly went from a -3 favorite down to a pick ‘em. Proving again, I’m an idiot for betting on the NBA before knowing the official starting 5.
NBA Tuesday Best Bets
- The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks (-2.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
I don't care if Knicks All-Star PG Jalen Brunson misses this game, New York is still rolling Atlanta. NYK's 107-98 win at the Cleveland Cavaliers Sunday after Brunson got hurt in the 1st minute of the game was a momentum-building victory. Also, the Hawks just got swept in a 2-game miniseries by the Brooklyn Nets Thursday and Saturday, losing both games by double digits.
Not only could the New York City nightlife be wearing down the Hawks, but so could NYK's physical style. The Knicks are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the NBA and rank 2nd in second-chance points per game (PPG). Atlanta is 25th in both second-chance PPG allowed and defensive rebounding rate. Both teams are missing their All-Star point guards but the Knicks have more depth.
Cleveland Cavaliers SG Sam Merrill tries to get around New York Knicks C Isaiah Hartenstein's pick at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. (David Richard-USA TODAY Sports)
However, the other Villanova guys in New York, SG Donte DiVincenzo and SF Josh Hart, can step up if Brunson is out Tuesday. DiVincenzo is averaging a career-best 14.2 PPG while shooting 41.0% from 3-point land. Hart has gotten back-to-back triple-doubles and is averaging 16.5 PPG, 12.5 rebounds, and 6.2 assists post-All-Star break.
The Knicks have been getting good minutes from backup PG Miles McBride and have "microwave scorers" off the bench in newly acquired SF Bojan Bogdanović and SG Alec Burks. They can make up the scoring without Julius Randle and Brunson, but the Hawks cannot without Trae Young.
Finally, New York's defense tightens up at home and can shut down an Atlanta offense that scored 102 and 97 vs. the Nets in its past two games.
Bet 1.1u on the Knicks -2.5 (-110) at Caesars. The Knicks are playable up to -4.
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Philadelphia 76ers (-2.5) at Brooklyn Nets, 7:30 p.m. ET
Honestly, I bet stupidly bet Philadelphia -2.5 thinking I'd get the best of the number. However, Sixers All-Star PG Tyrese Maxey was randomly ruled out with a concussion despite no reporting of said concussion by the team or Philadelphia beat writers.
I'll be transparent with the readers and move forward with the bet already in pocket. Obviously, you can get a better number since the 76ers are now a coin-flip to beat the Nets in Brooklyn. Regardless, I was fading the Nets as much as I was betting on the Sixers.
Philadelphia wing Tobias Harris has 28 and 31 points in his past two games. Newly acquired PG Kyle Lowry has been giving the 76ers good minutes and filling in for the concussed Maxey. Perhaps Philly SF Kelly Oubre Jr. or SG Buddy Hield have one of their random nine-3-pointer nights.
Philadelphia 76ers SF Tobias Harris operates out of the triple-threat vs. the Charlotte Hornets at the Wells Fargo Center in Pennsylvania. (Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images)
I don't know exactly how they'll get it done, but the 76ers will win because the Nets suck. Also, the Sixers do a good job defending 3-pointers and Brooklyn is 8th in 3-point attempt rate. The Sixers are 7th in 3-point attempts allowed per game and 6th in defensive 3-point shooting percentage.
Finally, Brooklyn is on the 2nd of a back-to-back after losing to the Memphis Grizzlies 106-102 Monday. The Nets are 2-7 straight up (SU) and 2-6-1 against the spread (ATS) on zero rest days with a -15.0 scoring margin.
Bet 1.12u on the Sixers -2.5 (-112) at FanDuel.
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Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks (-4.5), 8:30 p.m. ET
Indy hammered Dallas 133-111 at home Feb. 25th as +2 underdogs. The bottom line is, it's tough to beat the same team twice in a short period. There's no way Luka Dončić loses to Pacers All-Star PG Tyrese Haliburton again at home. Luka is "questionable" as of the NBA's 9:30 a.m. ET injury report Tuesday. But, the spread suggests he's playing and Dončić is always on the injury report.
Dallas Mavericks PG Kyrie Irving celebrates a bucket with Luka Doncic at American Airlines Center in Texas. (Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports)
On top of the "zigzag" theory, Tuesday's Pacers-Mavericks game being in Dallas makes a huge difference. The Mavs have a +3.8 scoring margin at home but are -2.8 in PPG on the road. Indiana is +5.3 in PPG at home and -3.1 in away games. More importantly, the Pacers are 26th in defensive rating, so Luka and Kyrie Irving should be able to cook Indy's defense.
Bet 1.08u on Dallas -4.5 (-108) at DraftKings. The Mavericks are bet-able up to -5.5.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.