NBA Thursday 4-Pack Of Best Bets Include Celtics-Bulls, Suns-Mavs
Thank god the NBA is back from its All-Star break. I've had nothing to gamble on for the past week (I don't count college basketball) and my 3-TV wall in the living room has been mostly Gordon Ramsay cooking shows. Instead of watching reruns of Hell's Kitchen and sweating my picks for Next Level Chef, I can get back to my basketball-betting junkie self.
NBA Thursday Best Bets
- The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
Brooklyn Nets (+2) at Toronto Raptors, 7 p.m. ET
Michael Scotto from Hoops Hype reports that Brooklyn players, including SF Mikal Bridges, were unhappy with now-former head coach Jacque Vaughn’s decision to center the game plans around PG Ben Simmons. This is all I needed to see to bet the Nets Thursday. I like Brooklyn’s roster and think Simmons works with what they have.
The idea of revolving a game plan around Simmons is stupid. His jump shot is broken and he lacks the confidence to ever be a scoring option in the NBA. I don’t like when teams fire their head coach mid-season. It shows instability and a lack of direction. Yet, anyone using Simmons as the focal point of an offense should be fired. Brooklyn’s offense should be running through Bridges and SG Cam Thomas.
Hopefully, Nets interim head coach Kevin Ollie does that. Regardless, Brooklyn beat Toronto at home 115-103 Nov. 28 in an NBA In-Season Tournament game. The Raptors still had former forwards OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam at that point. Toronto traded Anunoby and Siakam to playoff-caliber teams to get pieces for the future.
Toronto Raptors All-Star Scottie Barnes drives to the basket on Brooklyn Nets wing Mikal Bridges at Barclays Center.
(Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports)
I.e. the Raptors are worse after making those trades. Plus, the Nets were missing Thomas and Simmons for their November game vs. the Raptors. Simmons is still a solid defender and Thomas is Brooklyn’s 2nd-leading scorer at 21.2 points per game (PPG).
Lastly, Bridges didn’t make the All-Star Game, and Raptors wing Scottie Barnes did. This doesn’t fully factor into my handicap, but there’s an outside chance Bridges is more motivated for this game since Barnes took his All-Star roster spot. Either way, Bridges is the better player because he can play off-ball and defend.
Bet 1.14u on the Nets +2 (-114) at FanDuel. Give me the Nets down to a pick 'em.
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Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks (-118), 7:30 p.m. ET
I have a theory that Luka Dončić plays better on Fridays, especially at prime time. I know it’s Thursday, but Suns-Mavericks being on NBA On TNT with Shaq and Charles Barkley is a similar spot. Since this is the first game back from the All-Star break and the Mavs are at home in prime time, I think the Friday Night Luka shows up Thursday.
This is a rivalry game after Dončić and the Mavs beat the Suns and Devin Booker by 33 points in Phoenix in Game 7 of the 2022 NBA Western Conference Semifinals. Then Luka put up a masterpiece vs. the Suns in Phoenix on Christmas. He had 50 points, 15 assists, 6 rebounds, 4 steals, and 3 blocks in Dallas’s 128-114 victory. The Suns got revenge Jan. 24 by beating the Mavericks 132-109 in Dallas.
Phoenix Suns All-Star Devin Booker exchanges words with Dallas Mavericks All-Star Luka Dončić at the American Airlines Center in Texas.
(Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports)
But, the Mavs were missing All-Star SG Kyrie Irving and this was before they traded for PF P.J. Washington who is an upgrade over former stretch-4 Grant Williams. Kyrie has a +8.4 on/off net rating, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), while averaging 25.5 PPG. Washington can also space the floor but is less annoying to play with and more athletic.
With the increase in 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) league-wide, NBA games are turning into math equations. Well, the math "ain’t mathing" for the Suns because they take too many inefficient, mid-range jumpers. Dallas is +2.0 in made threes per game vs. opponents and Phoenix is -1.1. The Mavs are 10th in defensive field goal shooting vs. mid-range jumpers, according to CTG.
Bet 1.18u on Dallas's moneyline (-118) at FanDuel. The Mavericks are bet-able up to -2.5.
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Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls (+8.5), 8 p.m. ET
After splitting the season series last year 2-2 straight up (SU), the Celtics clobbered the Bulls in Boston 124-97 in their first meeting this season. That said, Chicago plays better on the road and without SG Zach LaVine, who’s out for the season. The 26-29 Bulls are 15-12 SU at home and 16-14 SU in games LaVine has missed. They are 6-4 SU as home underdogs and 6-3-1 against the spread (ATS).
Furthermore, LaVine and Bulls wing DeMar DeRozan are ball-stopping, iso-scorers and there isn’t enough usage in Chicago’s offense for both. LaVine’s absence has led to a Bulls PG Coby White breakout season. White is averaging career highs in PPG (19.6), field goal shooting (46.3%), and 3-point shooting (39.7%). He is more of a floor-spacing, catch-and-shoot guard who gets more touches when LaVine is off the floor.
Chicago Bulls guard Coby White shoots a three over Orlando Magic SG Gary Harris at KIA Center in Florida.
(Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports)
Adding to that, the Celtics were 0-4 ATS vs. the Bulls last season and 9-12-3 ATS as road favorites this season. Chicago is shooting 39.4% from deep in February and Boston is 27th in opponent’s 3PAr. The Celtics allow the 3rd-most wide-open threes per game on the season. I don’t like Boston’s chances of covering if it allows the Bulls to chuck threes.
BET 1.05u on the Bulls +8.5 (-105) at DraftKings. Chicago is playable down to +7.
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Warriors PF Draymond Green UNDER 25.5 PTS, REB, AST ("PRA") vs. Lakers
I hate to start my handicap off like this but 25.5 PRA feels like too big of a number. Green is Golden State’s starting center, so Lakers All-Star big Anthony Davis is his matchup Thursday. Green might get fewer touches Thursday to keep AD away from the ball.
More importantly, LeBron James will miss Thursday’s game and LA speeds up the tempo when LeBron is on the floor. Sans LeBron, more offensive action will run through Lakers SG Austin Reaves, who slows down the pace.
Los Angeles Lakers' Anthony Davis squares up Golden State Warriors PF Draymond Green during the 2023 NBA playoffs at the Chase Center in San Francisco.
(Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports)
Draymond and AD have faced each other 15 times since Davis joined Los Angeles in 2019. Green has gone Over 25.5 PRA in only five of those games. This includes LA’s 145-144 double overtime win over Golden State in the 1st Lakers-Warriors meeting this season, Jan. 15.
Green added eight points, rebounds, and assists in the two overtime periods to finish with 33 PRA (8-14-11). I.e. he needed those two overtimes to go Over 25.5 PRA. Finally, since returning from his suspension Jan. 15, Draymond has gone Over 25.5 PRA in just five of his 14 games.
BET 0.65u on Golden State PF Draymond Green 25.5 PRA (-130) at DrafKings
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