Consider Fading These Two NBA Bets Thursday From An Ice-Cold Gambler

My NBA regular season from hell is almost over with the SoFi NBA Play-In Tournament tipping off April 16-19, followed by the playoffs April 20. At this point, I would sell my soul to the devil if I could finish around even in the NBA 2023-24 season. Typically, I bend the NBA playoffs over my knee. 

But, given my atrocious regular season, I'm less confident this year. The silver lining to this gray poop cloud is at least I'm giving OutKick readers something to fade. Mediocrity in the sports betting space is the worst. People either need someone sharp to tail or someone dumb to fade. Apparently, I'm the latter this season. 

NBA Betting Card For Thursday, April 4th

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat (-1.5), 7:30 p.m. ET

Philadelphia looked shaky in Joel Embiid’s first game back Tuesday. The Sixers beat the Oklahoma City Thunder 109-105, who were missing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jaylen Williams. Embiid did his thing. The Process scored 24 points, hit all 12 of his free throws, grabbed 7 boards, and threw 6 assists. 

However, Philadelphia had 16 turnovers Tuesday and leads the NBA with just 11.5 turnovers per game. The Sixers would’ve lost vs. the Thunder had Philly wing Kelly Oubre Jr. not shot the lights out Tuesday. Oubre scored a game-high 25 points on 4-of-7 from behind the arc. The 76ers need some time to adjust with Embiid back in the lineup.

Philadelphia 76ers C Joel Embiid posts up Miami Heat C Bam Adebayo at Wells Fargo Center. (Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports)

But, they won’t be able to get away with sloppy play Thursday. Miami is 7-3 straight up (SU) in the last 10. Two of those losses were without Jimmy Butler and one was to the Sixers sans Embiid. Butler is "probable" for Thursday despite missing the morning shootaround. Embiid and 76ers All-Star PG Tyrese Maxey are "questionable" Thursday, but both participated in morning shootaround. 

In today’s NBA, you never know who will play and who won't. Ultimately, I just like the Heat’s roster and coaching more. Between guards Terry Rozier and Duncan Robinson, they have outside shooting. For my money, Miami big Bam Adebayo is the best defensive player in the Association. Butler is one of the best closers in the NBA. 

Bet 1.12u on the Heat -1.5 (-112) at FanDuel. Miami is bet-able up to -3.5. 

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Atlanta Hawks (+12) at Dallas Mavericks, 7:30 p.m. ET

Low-key, the Hawks have been playing good basketball lately. Over the last two weeks, Atlanta is 6-2 SU and against the spread with a +8.3 spread differential, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). The Hawks beat the Boston Celtics twice over that span. 

This could be a look-ahead spot for the Mavericks, who are facing the Golden State Warriors Friday. That game has huge playoff implications since Dallas is only a half-game ahead of the 7-seed New Orleans Pelicans and Golden State is playing for home-court advantage in the first round of the postseason play-in tournament as the 10-seed. 

Luka Doncic scored 73 points in Dallas's 148-143 win vs. Atlanta January 26. However, these Hawks-Mavericks games are generally pretty close. There’s only been one game in their last seven meetings with a double-digit margin and that was an Atlanta victory in 2021.

Dallas Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic battles for a loose ball with Atlanta Hawks PG Dejounte Murray at State Farm Arena in Georgia. (Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

Also, Hawks All-Star PG Trae Young is still injured and Atlanta is better without Trae. There’s more ball and player movement with Young off the floor. Per CTG, the Hawks score 4.4 more points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time without Trae in the game. 

Furthermore, between Hawks SG Bogdan Bogdanović, SF Jalen Johnson, and combo guard Dejounte Murray, Atlanta has more than enough scoring. Adding to that, Murray is a much better two-way player than Young, who’s a defensive liability. 

With that in mind, this Dallas team isn’t 11 points better than Atlanta. Perhaps I’m being baited by a trap line, but the average spread in seven Mavericks-Hawks games since 2021 is Atlanta -0.1. Whether they sneak in the backdoor or play the Mavs tight the whole way, the Hawks should keep this within 10 points or fewer. 

Bet 1.05u on Atlanta +12 (-105) at Caesars. The Hawks are playable down to +10.5. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.