NBA Thanksgiving Eve Betting Action Includes Fading The Lakers, Dillon Brooks 'Revenge Game'
The NBA is going all out Wednesday by scheduling 14 games since the NFL owns Thanksgiving Day. Speaking of "going all out," I've put myself in quite a hole through the first month of basketball.
Entering Thanksgiving eve, my NBA record is 34-37 and my bankroll is -6.95 units (u). With that in mind, I need a slump busting performance with these ...
NBA Wednesday Best Bets
Chicago Bulls at Oklahoma City Thunder (-7), 8 p.m. ET tip-off
Aside from an absolute stinker by the Thunder, it's hard to come up with reasons why the Bulls win or cover Wednesday. OKC is third in Basketball Reference's "Simple Rating System" (SRS), which blends scoring margin with strength of schedule. Chicago is 23rd.
Furthermore, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), the Thunder smack around bad teams and the Bulls suck vs. good teams. Oklahoma City is 4-1 straight up (SU) vs. teams in the bottom-10 of net rating with a +16.8 spread differential. Chicago is 0-5 SU vs. top-10 net rating with a -9.8 spread differential.
Oklahoma City Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander brings the ball up court against the Bulls at United Center in Chicago. (Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, the Thunder are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. They lead the Association in 3-point shooting percentage and rank fourth in defensive 3-point shooting. While the Bulls are 27th from behind the arc and 22nd defensively.
OKC's previous game was Sunday and Chicago last played Monday. Since last year, the Thunder are 11-7 against the spread (ATS) with a rest edge including five straight covers and SU wins. Finally, they have won three consecutive meetings with the Bulls dating back to last year with a 124-104 in Chicago in October.
My prediction: Thunder 119, Bulls 107
PS NBA Player Prop: OKC Thunder wing Luguentz Dort OVER 1.5 made 3-pointers (+100)
Dort banged two 3-pointers in the 1st Bulls-Thunder meeting this season and shoots better at home. His 3-point percentage goes from 40.7% on the road to 50.0% at home. Dort has made at least two 3-pointers in eight of his 14 games this season.
Oklahoma City Thunder wing Luguentz Dort shoots a 3-pointer vs. the Chicago Bulls. (Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Thunder stretch-4 Jalen Williams will miss Wednesday's game so that could open up more looks for Dort. Plus, Bulls PF DeMar DeRozan will defend Dort and DeRozan has the worst defensive rating in Chicago's starting 5.
Memphis Grizzlies at Houston Rockets (-5), 8 p.m. ET tip-off
This is a fade against one of the worst teams in the NBA, the Grizzlies, who are also short-handed. They are missing three starters (Ja Morant, Steven Adams, and Marcus Smart) and a few other role players.
Plus, this is a revenge game for Rockets wing Dillon Brooks who was traded by Memphis to Houston this offseason. Brooks was unfairly scapegoated for the Grizzlies getting eliminated from the playoffs last season by the Los Angeles Lakers.
Former Grizzlies wing Dillon Brooks and LeBron James talk smack during Game 2 of the Western Conference First Round Playoffs at FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee. (Justin Ford/Getty Images)
The Rockets have been amazing at home this season. They are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS at home with a +13.3 spread differential. Houston is on a three-game losing skid but covered all three. While Memphis is 3-1 ATS over the last four games.
Finally, Houston feels like the sharp side here. Betcris, Pinnacle Sportsbook, and Bookmaker are listing the Rockets as -5.5 home favorites as of 2:30 p.m. ET Wednesday. However, the legal U.S. sportsbooks price Houston as -5 favorites.
My prediction: Rockets 112, Grizzlies 102
Dallas Mavericks (-3) at Los Angeles Lakers, 10:30 p.m. ET tip-off
The Lakers play terrible defense vs. 3-pointers and the Mavs are too good from 3-point land. Over their last six games, the Lakers are giving up the highest rate of wide-open 3-point attempts (3PAr) in the NBA. Dallas has the second-highest 3PAr and ranks 3rd in 3-point shooting.
Luka Doncic defends LeBron James at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. (Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
The Mavericks are +3.9 in made 3-pointers per game while the Lakers are -4.0. Anthony Davis cannot be everywhere at once. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving can get wide-open looks for themselves and teammates.
Moreover, Kyrie will be motivated to face his former teammate, LeBron James, and Luka gets up to play LeBron too. The Mavericks are 7-3 SU and 7-2-1 ATS vs. the Lakers over their last 10 meetings.