NBA Sunday 'Locks' Include Clippers' Quarterly Lakers Whooping
I know, I know, it's the final week of the NFL regular-season and who cares about the NBA. Listen, I have more action on NFL Sunday than most of you. I get it. But, I'm also an avid basketball bettor and handicap the NBA daily.
If you have multi-view TV setup, why not throw some cash on an NBA game? At least, my two looks Sunday are in interesting games. Saturday, I bet a Knicks-Wizards game. Instead, I'm going with the Mavericks-Timberwolves and Clippers-Lakers games for my ...
NBA Sunday Best Bets
Minnesota Timberwolves (-3) at Dallas Mavericks, 7:30 p.m. ET
We cannot put much stock in Minnesota's 118-110 win over Dallas Dec. 28th. The Mavericks were missing Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving and they closed as +12 'dogs. That said, the Timberwolves clobbered the Mavs 119-101 two weeks prior and Luka put up a 39-6-13.
Dallas struggles against tough competition. The Mavs are 3-10 straight up (SU) vs. teams with a top-10 net rating in non-garbage time, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). They have a -9.8 adjusted net rating and -6.2 spread differential in those games.
Also, Dallas has several key injuries that make the T-Wolves -3 a good price. As of 10:30 a.m. ET Sunday morning, Luka and stretch-4 Grant Williams are "questionable". Mavericks C Dereck Lively is "doubtful" and backup PG Dante Exum is out.
Minnesota Timberwolves All-Star Anthony Edwards drives to the basket on Mavericks big Dereck Lively in an NBA game at American Airlines Center in Dallas. (Tim Heitman/Getty Images)
Again, with Luka out last month, Dallas closed as +12 'dogs in Minnesota. Exum leads the Mavs with a +14.3 on/off non-garbage time net rating and Lively is +8.9, per CTG. Lively is Dallas's defensive anchor and Minnesota attempts a bunch of shots in the paint.
Finally, the gap between the Mavs and Timberwolves Sunday is further than three points. Basketball Reference has a "Simple Rating System" (SRS), which blends strength of schedule and scoring margin. Minnesota's SRS is +6.4 and Dallas has a +0.9 SRS.
My prediction: Timberwolves 118, Mavericks 110
Los Angeles Clippers (-5) at Los Angeles Lakers, 9:30 p.m. ET
These teams are going in opposite directions and the Clippers own the Lakers. Since Dec. 1st, LAC is 14-2 SU with the 2nd-best in non-garbage time net rating (+11.8) in the NBA and 7th in spread differential (+3.3), per CTG.
Furthermore, since 2012, the Clippers are 35-8 SU and 29-14 against the spread (ATS) vs. the Lakers with a +10.6 scoring margin. Granted, the Lakers snapped a 10-game losing skid (1-9 ATS) to the Clippers in their 1st meeting this season Nov. 1st.
However, it was the 5th game of the season for both teams. So that was a healthier Lakers squad and 1st-year Clippers PG James Harden was inactive for that game. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George combined for 73 points on 59.1% shooting. They just didn't have enough help.
Lakers' LeBron James guards Clippers All-Star Kawhi Leonard at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. (Harry How/Getty Images)
But, with Harden, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George on the floor, the Clippers have a +11.4 net rating, per CTG. That grades in the 94th percentile of all 5-man lineups. In three games so far this month, Harden has an absurd 147 offensive rating.
Lastly, over that span the Clippers have a 64.1% effective field goal shooting rate (eFG%), which accounts for 2- and 3-point shooting. While the Lakers have a 50.0% eFG% in their two games in January. LAL is shooting just 24.1% from behind the arc this month.